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Well, _that_ was unexpected. I felt like I was taking a bold risk by predicting a 1-2 win to the Arsenal. Turns out I underestimated us by quite a lot. A thumping 1-5 win sends a rather dramatic statement of intent to the other competitors in this fun l’il new-format UCL. Not only did we score five goals, we brought our tally from a measly three scored in four matches to eight scored in five. What’s more, we raised Sporting’s goals conceded from just two to seven and have climbed into the top eight, and apparently have become one of the odds-on favourites to win it all. Time to pump the brakes.
Okay, so, yes, we’ve had one of the toughest draws with Opta suggesting that our fixtures amount to an average opponent rating of 90.7, 12th-toughest overall. We’ve won at home over PSG (toughest at 92.4), lost narrowly away to Inter (9th at 90.9), and won away over Sporting (7th at 91.1). Our remaining fixtures include a visit from Monaco (17th), a visit from Dinamo Zagreb (27th), and a trip to Girona (22nd). At a risk of getting ahead of ourselves, we may just be able to pencil ourselves in for a spot in the first knockout round (round of 16) in March, sparing ourselves a spot in the two-legged preliminary knockout round for teams that finish in spots 9-24 set for February.
Would that mean that we’re actually among the favourites? Are we really in a class with Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, Bayern, Man City, and Atletico Madrid? No, not at this stage. Still, it’s worth pointing out that of those putative favourites, only Liverpool and Barcelona are among the top eight. There’s a distant possibility that at least a few of those other true Titans will have to fight through that preliminary knockout round. There are some salacious, potentially calamitous clashes to consider: Liverpool, currently third on twelve points, host Real Madrid. Barcelona, also on twelve points, travel to Borussia Dortmund and Benfica before hosting Atalanta. Bayern have a relatively easy path with matches away to Feyenoord (although they did just draw with Man City by scoring thrice late at the Etihad) and Shakhtar Donetsk and then at home to minnows Slovan Bratislava. Real Madrid, in addition to their trip to Anfield, also have to go to Atalanta before thrashing Salzburg at home and Brest away. Atleti might have the easiest row to hoe with home matches against Slovan Bratislava and Bayer Leverkusen and then a trip to face Salzburg. Man City go to Juventus and then face Paris St-Germain away before hosting Club Brugge in their final group-phase match.
A lot can happen. It’s all a muddle.
Of course, there are others to consider, namely Inter, Atalanta, Aston Villa, and Bayer Leverkusen, to name just a few. A lot can happen between now and January when this new phase ends.
Having said that, and having couched my predictions in suitably cautious terms, one does have to feel a certain, small dose of optimism. It’s not crazy to think that Bayern, Man City, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, and PSG could all end up in the preliminary knockout round, leading to at least a few of them getting, well, knocked out. From there, it’s anyone’s guess.
If we can play like we played against Sporting CP on Tuesday, we might very well indeed be among the favourites to win it all—but we’re still at such an embryonic stage that a lot would depend on favourable draws rather than on our own development or prowess. A performance like the one we put on at the Estádio José Alvalade does suggest that we’re starting to bridge the gap between that embryonic stage and a more-dominant one. We’ll have to wait and see, in other words.
In the shorter term, on the nearer horizon, we’ve now turned in two consecutive, confident performances against two respectable if not formidable opponents. It’s one thing to do that at home. It’s quite another to do it away. We’ve done both. If we can just translate these two performances into something more definitive, then, yes, we can call ourselves favourites to win this particular piece of silverware.
If. Funny word, that.