West Ham went into the new Premier League season with the aim of qualifying for Europe again but is it still possible?
If you want proof that West Ham tasked new boss Julen Lopetegui with getting the team back into Europe, just look at his contract.
The Hammers appointed the Spaniard on a two-year deal.
But if West Ham qualify for any UEFA competition in that time, a third year will automatically be triggered in Lopetegui’s deal.
With just three wins from their opening 11 Premier League games, though, it looked like those hopes and dreams had died a death.
Monday night’s brilliant 2-0 win at Newcastle has breathed new life into West Ham’s season.
Many fans and pundits are, understandably, waiting to see evidence that impressive victory was not a one-off before getting too carried away.
There is no escaping the fact the manner of the performance was highly impressive.
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If West Ham play like that for the rest of the season, they’ll win more games than they lose.
After the match, many were surprised to see the Hammers are now just four points behind sixth-placed Spurs in the table.
So is a return to Europe now back on the cards for the east Londoners?
Declan Rice of West Ham United lifts the Winners' trophy as he celebrates with team mates on the podium following the UEFA Europa Conference League...
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Points West Ham need to make Europe will shock coy Lopetegui
West Ham fans absolutely loved their three seasons of European adventures which culminated in that unforgettable Europa Conference League triumph last year.
Given the small gap to the European spots following the win at Newcastle, one of the first questions Lopetegui was asked in his pre-Arsenal press conference was about just that.
“We don’t think about where we are now,” Lopetegui said when asked if he is now aiming for Europe again.
“We think about where we can be in the next four months. The end of the season is when we can talk about whether we did well or not – let’s see.
“We have to be ready to be better in every match, and to improve.”
But the points West Ham need to make Europe will shock coy Lopetegui in this wide open Premier League season.
As the final whistle blew on West Ham’s win at St James’ Park on Monday night, it signalled the 13th time in November alone that a side had beaten one above them in the Premier League.
Incredibly, almost half of this month’s 30 Prem matches have ended with the lower-placed club taking all three points.
Wide open season means Hammers can still make Europe
At half-time against Arsenal this weekend, we will be exactly a third of the way through the season.
Taking league leaders Liverpool out of the equation, the Premier League really is there to be attacked for teams in the final two thirds of the campaign.
West Ham should very much be aiming to be one of those teams.
The gap from second place to fifth place, currently held by Manchester City and Brighton respectively, is the smallest it has EVER been after 12 games. There is only one point between those teams.
A previous low of two points has occurred only three times before, including last season.
Man City are now closer to West Ham than they are behind Liverpool.
Directly below City, three clubs are clustered together on 22 points.
It means there is still plenty of room for a top four surprise and more realistically still for West Ham, a shot at a return to the Europa League or Conference League.
Julen Lopetegui, Head Coach of Sevilla celebrates with the UEFA Europa League Trophy following his team's victory in during the UEFA Europa League ...
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How many points West Ham might need to make Europe
A Champions League spot may be out of West Ham’s reach given the consistency of performance needed to achieve that.
Between 70-75 points is usually required so would mean West Ham needing another 50 points.
That would mean racking up 18 wins from the remaining 26 games.
Not impossible if the Hammers use Monday night as a springboard but probably unlikely.
This is where things get interesting.
While there are a few ifs and buts depending on various factors, Europa League or Conference League qualification is still well within West Ham’s reach thanks to the compacted nature of the table this season.
Fifth place is a Europa League spot but it could go down to sixth depending on cup winners.
That usually requires between 60 and 65 points.
That would mean West Ham need 15 wins – or the equivalent points – to make a charge for a Europa League spot.
So the Hammers have 11 games where they can afford not to win, making that a much more realistic and tangible aim.
Europe not a pipe dream for West Ham but consistency is key
The precise threshold for European qualification will also depend on how Premier League sides do in Europe and obviously domestic cup outcomes.
For example if a team outside the top six wins the FA Cup or Carabao Cup, they could claim a European spot.
Now this is where it gets really interesting for the Hammers.
To return to the Conference League we all remember so fondly, finishing sixth or seventh would be enough depending on cup results.
That is usually achievable with between 55-60 points.
Based on the points-per-game so far, seventh spot could be achievable with 57 points this term.
That requires West Ham to win 14 more games or the equivalent points, ie: 12 wins six draws.
That is surely achievable with the squad Lopetegui has.
Of course the manager is going to want to play things down to manage expectations.
But if there was any season West Ham can make a charge and qualify for Europe then it is this one.
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