We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Are the Blues outside title contenders?
Chelsea vs Aston Villa: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is giving Chelsea a 52% win probability for this clash.
Chelsea, however, are winless in their last three Premier League meetings with Aston Villa.
Villa have won their last two league games at Stamford Bridge.
For all the pre-season talk of a bloated squad and the chaotic state of Chelsea behind the scenes, Enzo Maresca has enjoyed a strong start as Blues coach.
Chelsea sit in third place in the Premier League heading into Matchday 13, above Arsenal on goal difference, and have lost just twice in the Premier League this season.
On Thursday, their second string edged them closer to progression in the UEFA Conference League with a 2-0 win at Heidenheim, and Maresca has used that competition to give fringe players a chance while resting the likes of star man Cole Palmer.
But where Chelsea have come unstuck is when facing fellow ‘big six’ opponents. They have lost to Manchester City and Liverpool, while drawing against Manchester United and Arsenal.
Aston Villa don’t fall into the traditional ‘big six’, but they finished in the top four last season and on Wednesday held European heavyweights Juventus to a 0-0 draw in the Champions League. They were denied a late winner when Morgan Rogers had a goal disallowed for a foul on the goalkeeper by Diego Carlos.
But Unai Emery’s team are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2). They last went five without a win between May and August 2022, while they last did so in the same season in March/April 2022 (both runs under Steven Gerrard). That run of form has seen them drop to eighth, though such is the congested nature of the Premier League, they are only three points behind Chelsea ahead of Sunday’s clash at Stamford Bridge.
After successive draws, the Blues bounced back by beating Leicester City 2-1 last week – a result that ultimately led to the end of Steve Cooper’s Foxes tenure.
Nicolas Jackson was heavily involved, scoring one and playing a part in Chelsea’s winner, as his header was saved before Enzo Fernandez nodded in on the rebound. Five of Jackson’s seven Premier League goals this season have put Chelsea 1-0 ahead in the match – coming into this weekend’s games, only Chris Wood (six) has scored the opening goal in more different games this term.
Pulling the strings behind Jackson will almost certainly be Palmer. No player has created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than the England international (28). Villa are one of just three sides Palmer has failed to score or assist against in the league since joining the Blues (two appearances), along with Liverpool (two) and Leicester (one).
Just 41% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (9/22), the lowest ratio of any side, so rediscovering that winning touch at Stamford Bridge will be crucial if Maresca is going to, at the very least, secure Champions League qualification this term.
They may also need to shore up at the back. Chelsea have conceded at least once in all six of their Premier League home games this season – they last had a longer wait for a home clean sheet from the start of a league campaign in 1978-79 (nine games).
Villa have scored both a league-high total (six) and share (32%) of their Premier League goals via headers this season, including Ross Barkley’s equaliser against Crystal Palace last time out. As it stands, it is their highest share of headed goals in a single top-flight campaign since 2001-02 (33% – 15/46).
Ollie Watkins, meanwhile, has scored in his last two Premier League away games against Chelsea, with both ending up being the winning goal in the match. No visiting player has ever scored three match-winning goals at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Villa have won their last two Premier League away games against Chelsea, as many as in their previous 21 visits to Stamford Bridge (D4 L15).
They last won three consecutive away league games against the Blues between 1930 and 1933.
Chelsea are winless in their last three Premier League meetings with Aston Villa (D1 L2), last having a longer such run against them between February 2006 and December 2007 (five).
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction
Despite their recent form against Villa, Chelsea are made the favourites by Opta’s supercomputer. The Blues have a 52% win probability.
Villa have a 25.2% chance of taking three points, while the likelihood of a draw is 22.8%.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction Opta Supercomputer
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Chelsea predicted team v Aston Villa
Aston Villa predicted team v Chelsea
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Opta Stats Hub Premier League
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