Premier League Preview: Nottingham Forest
Written by ad_wilkin on Friday, 29th Nov 2024 10:43
Nottingham Forest have been flying. They sit seventh in the table and have only lost three games all season, a 1-0 defeat to Fulham, a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle and a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal.
Their most notable result was a 1-0 victory over table-toppers Liverpool but they have also picked up good points against Brighton and Chelsea.
In Nuno Espirito Santo they have a manager who knows the league well. He took fellow Midlands club Wolves from the Championship to the Europa League, leaving by mutual consent in May 2021 and finishing with a 47.74% win ratio.
Forest represented the perfect fit to rebuild his Premier League reputation after short spells at Tottenham and Saudi side Al-Ittihad.
Mats Sels joined Forest in February 2024 after a revolving door of keepers and has been number one since then. He’s had a solid start to this season with excellent performances against Chelsea and Crystal Palace, which is a vast improvement on last season when he finished on –9.52 goals prevented.
His average pass length is the highest in the league at 44.1 yards with a launch percentage of 67.7%, also the highest in the league. The last time I pulled those metrics out were when Town faced Everton with Jordan Pickford in the lead at that point in time. We all know how that worked out. Town should expect to face a similar task with lots of direct balls in behind in this one.
His back up is 26-year old Brazilian Carlos Miguel, who signed from Corinthians in the summer. He’s made one appearance so far, in the Carabao Cup penalty defeat to Newcastle.
Forest have been operating with a consistent back four in recent games with Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo and Alex Moreno.
Aina joined Forest on a free transfer in July 2023 and the 28-year-old Nigerian international has become a key fixture despite having not made the grade at Chelsea.
Nikola Milenkovic signed in the summer from Fiorentina and already looks to be money well spent. He operates as the covering defender and has helped improved Forest’s defending from set pieces but it’s his left-footed parter Murillo who’s the real star in defence.
The 22-year-old Brazilian is now in his second season in the Premier League with Forest and has recently been linked with a big money move to Liverpool. It’s clear to see why they’re after him.
He’s made the most clearances in the league (67) but it’s his high press and ability to sense danger and step in which is his best attribute. This is crucial to Forest winning the ball high up the pitch and executing counter-attacks. He doesn’t just win the ball and lay it off, he’s excellent and driving up the pitch with it as well.
Thirty-one-year-old Moreno is on loan from Aston Villa and provides a naturally left-footed option at left-back. He’s started the last eight games in a row and got his first assist of the season in the 3-0 win against West Ham.
Neco Williams is also an option in both full-back areas but has started more games for Wales in recent times than Forest. He’s come off the bench against Crystal Palace and Leicester but will be hoping for more game time.
Also in the defensive unit are veteran centre-back Willy Boly, another young Brazilian signed from Benfica in the summer in Morato and left-back Harry Toffolo, who has been with the club since 2022 without really nailing down a starting berth.
Former Canary Andrew Omabamidele is also with the club but has been missing all season with a long-term injury problem.
There has been more rotation in midfield depending on the task at hand but the man who has featured the most is Ryan Yates. The Forest captain is one of the first names on the teamsheet and is such an all-round midfielder. He has made 18 tackles and 10 interceptions but has also made the most passes of all of Forest’s midfielders and had 24 touches in the opposition penalty area. His battle with Sam Morsy will be a fascinating watch.
The last four matches he’s formed a partnership in that central area with Nicolas Dominguez. The 26-year-old Argentinian is in his second season with Forest and brings grit to the midfield. He’s won 54% of his duels but is also tidy on the ball with a pass completion rate of 84.3%
One of Forest’s stars of the season has been Elliott Anderson. The 22-year-old was signed from Newcastle this summer for £35 million and has three assists in eight starts. He’s played across a number of positions in this Forest side, featuring in central midfield, both wings and in the number 10 role. His ability to keep the ball is up there with some of the best in the league and he has excellent positional awareness.
That versatility has meant that Nuno hasn’t had to chose between Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White, who was Forest’s talisman last season, scoring five goals and contributing 10 assists.
He is given the freedom to play all over the pitch and find positions where he can maximise his influence. He made his international debut for England in the last international break and will be looking to continue his good run of form to earn more call-ups under new manager Thomas Tuchel.
Also in the midfield unit are free-kick specialist James Ward-Prowse, who lost his place near the start of the season after a double yellow card against Chelsea, Ibrahim Sangare, who was filling the defensive midfield role before suffering a long-term injury after just three matches, and 23-year-old Brazilian Danilo, who made 20 starts last season but has been injured for much of this campaign.
That midfield three sits behind an attacking trio loaded with pace and trickery, with one of the Premier League’s in-form strikers leading the line. Chris Wood spent a brief spell on loan at Ipswich Town making eight appearances without finding the net in 2014/15 but he has hit eight goals in 12 appearances so far this season.
Those have come from all kinds of different chances, three headers, one penalty and an excellent disguised finish from the edge of the box. Only Erling Haaland carries the burden of goalscoring more than Wood, who has scored 53.33% of his team’s total goals. Haaland has scored 54.55% of Manchester City’s
He’s ably supported either side by Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga, who are thriving off the big New Zealander’s knockdowns and presence leading the line.
Hudson-Odoi was the match winner in Forest’s shock victory at Anfield, cutting inside and bending the ball into the far corner, a feat he completed again in the 3-0 victory against West Ham, albeit that one from a cleverly worked free-kick rather than a counter-attack. Ipswich will have to keep a close eye and try to send him down the line as much as possible.
Elanga has been less prolific down the right-hand side but still possesses the attributes to cause any teams problems. That was evident last season as he scored five and assisted nine in 25 starts. He’s still only 22 and has plenty of room to improve.
Back-up on the wings comes from new signing Ramon Sosa, a Paraguayan international, who has made eight appearances off the bench, and Jota Silva, who also joined this summer from Portuguese club Vitoria. He’s made 11 appearances off the bench and impressed in recent games.
Backing up Wood is Taiwo Awoniyi, who is a proven Premier League goalscorer with six in 20 last season, but given Wood’s form has struggle for minutes alongside Emmanuel Dennis, who spent last season back on loan with Watford. He is still part of the squad but hasn’t played a single minute so far.
It was another good performance for Town last weekend with only one change. Wes Burns replacing the injured Ben Johnson. Cameron Burgess kept his place and was excellent once again, whether that was a selection call or because Jacob Greaves wasn’t fully fit just yet remains to be seen but I think Town could well be unchanged again for this one.
For Forest, Gibbs-White and Anderson are both injury doubts and there have been calls for a freshen up on the wings with Elanga underwhelming so far and Jota having impressed off the bench, so there could be a switch there.
Nuno’s hand may also be forced with Elanga having to be withdrawn against Arsenal.
Wood is likely to return to the starting line-up having been rested against Arsenal following his international exploits with New Zealand, but a lot will depend on the fitness of the two aforementioned attacking midfielders.
Forest were flying as high as third place in the Premier League at the start of the season but have been exposed by Newcastle and Arsenal in recent games. They’ll be fired up after back-to-back defeats with Manchester City to come after this.
Their style is similar to Everton and West Ham, two teams Town struggled against, in how they aren’t afraid to go direct, have an aggressive midfield pairing, fast skilful wingers and a big number nine who can hold up the ball. That worries me but at the same time McKenna and his team will be learning game by game how to handle these different styles of opposition.
We’re overdue a bit of a smash and grab style win so I'm going to go for a 1-0 win in this one.
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