Expected Goals is a statistic that divides opinion, but it’s introduction to the footballing lexicon has helped determine the quality of goalscoring chances.
We’ve decided to look at the players statistically deemed the finest finishers in the Premier League so far this season. Here are the five players who have most over-performed on xG, boasting the highest positive xG differential.
Spoiler: There’s no Erling Haaland or Mohamed Salah…
The Premier League players with the best xG differential in 2024/25
5. Dwight McNeil – Everton (+2.1)
Dwight McNeil has been crucial to Everton’s performances this season with the midfielder involved in 60% of their Premier League goals. A move into a more central position has brought out the best in the 24-year-old, who has three goals and three assists.
McNeil’s three goals have come despite recording an xG – designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal – of just 0.9 so far this season.
4. Harry Wilson – Fulham (+2.42)
Harry Wilson has been one of the most prolific players in the Premier League this season in terms of minutes-per-goal.
The Welshman has failed to start a single game but has scored three times from just 104 minutes of action. His return includes a match-winning brace from the bench against Brentford, that included an audacious flicked effort. It’s getting increasingly hard for Marco Silva to leave him out.
“Brentford finally breached” 🗣
Harry Wilson with a spectacular finish for his first goal of the season! 👏 pic.twitter.com/y72B2jCz7x
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) November 4, 2024
3. Chris Wood – Nottingham Forest (+3.05)
Chris Wood seems to finally be getting his flowers this season. The New Zealand international is a throwback of a centre-forward, who has been consistently reliable in the top flight for several seasons. Wood has scored eight goals in 11 games for Nottingham Forest this season, a return chalked up from an xG of just 4.95.
He’s on course for a sixth Premier League campaign with 10+ goals scored and now has 77 in the division. That’s more than Daniel Sturridge and Eric Cantona.
2. Matheus Cunha – Wolves (+3.83)
Matheus Cunhas has got Wolves’ season up and running in recent weeks. The Brazilian has been the bright spark of an otherwise challenging start for Wolves, who did not earn their first win until November 9th.
That run came despite Cunha’s continued excellence around goal. The 25-year-old has seven goals and three assists from just 11 starts this season, following a 12-goal campaign in 2023/24.
Matheus Cunha is him.
🇧🇷🎯 pic.twitter.com/RYAWQbwFzx
— Wolves (@Wolves) November 23, 2024
1. Bryan Mbeumo – Brentford (+4.02)
Bryan Mbeumo is statistically the best finisher in the Premier League so far this season.
The Brentford winger has stepped up to the plate since the sale of Ivan Toney, scoring eight times in 12 games this season. Mbeumo trails only Erling Haaland (12) and Mohamed Salah (10) for Premier League goals, exceeding his xG by a huge 4.02.
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