Last weekend at Goodison Park, the Blues failed to press their advantage against ten-man Brentford, despite enjoying a numerical edge for more than half the game. The second period was highly instructive regarding Everton’s long-standing problems in developing solid scoring opportunities, under current boss Sean Dyche. Short in ideas, incisive movement and tempo, the hosts looked like a side poorly coached in the attacking side of the game.
Whilst it is true that defending is as important as attack in football, failing to score goals - which the Toffees did throughout the entire month of November - limits the ability to win games, and this is what we are seeing currently. Everton have lost just once over the last eight matches, but have secured only two victories and have averaged a mere 1.14 xG (Expected Goals) over that period.
Whether the team will seek to address their offensive shortcomings entering what figures to be a highly-demanding run of games, is doubtful. First up in this difficult sequence of matches is a visit to Old Trafford, where they’ll face Manchester United.
Form
In Erik ten Hag’s second season in charge, United took a serious step backwards, following an impressive third-place Premier League finish in 2022/23, ending up in eighth spot. An unlikely FA Cup Final win over crosstown rivals Manchester City, in addition to the club’s hierarchy being unable to source a replacement, gave the under-fire Dutchman a reprieve. Ten Hag had already been backed heavily - to the tune of a net €363.6m - over his first two campaigns, and the Red Devils spent big again during the summer.
Despite a failed pursuit of Everton’s star defender Jarrad Branthwaite, the club splashed a staggering €214.5m on five new additions. Of these, full back Noussair Mazraoui (€15m) and centre half Matthijs de Ligt (€45m) - both signed from German super club Bayern Munich - have slotted in as regular starters. Striker Joshua Zirkzee (€42.5m, Bologna) and midfielder Manuel Ugarte (€50m, PSG) have been used mostly from the bench, whereas teenage wonderkid defender Leny Yoro (€62m, Lille) has been sidelined by a preseason injury.
Mitigating such a splurge, the Mancunians managed to generate considerable fees - totalling €103m - for a number of unwanted players. Foremost amongst those were midfielder Scott McTominay (€30.5m, Napoli), forward Mason Greenwood (€26m, Marseille) and right back Aaron Wan-Bissaka (€17.6m, West Ham United). Also departing were players like centre back Raphael Varane (free, Como), forward Anthony Martial (free) and a former Blue, in midfielder Donny van de Beek (€0.5m, Girona).
Ipswich Town FC v Manchester United FC - Premier League United took an early lead but had to settle for a share of the points against Ipswich
Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images
Under pressure before the campaign had even kicked off, gaining just two wins from the opening seven league fixtures did little to stabilize ten Hag’s position in the Old Trafford hot seat. A win over Brentford next time out bought a brief reprieve, but defeat to West Ham in the following league outing was the final straw, and he was done. Assistant Ruud van Nistelrooy stepped in to hold the fort, whilst the United top brass negotiated a deal to bring in Ruben Amorim as a permanent replacement, and picked up a draw with Chelsea and a 3-0 win over Leicester City.
In Amorim’s debut, United were held 1-1 on the road by Ipswich Town a week ago, but the Portuguese tasted success during the week, beating Bodø/Glimt 3-2 at Old Trafford in the Europa League. The Red Devils await Everton sitting on 16 points.
Style of Play
After a brief spell in charge of Braga - which included winning the domestic cup competition - Amorim moved to take the reins at Sporting CP in March 2020, lifting the Primeira Liga in his first full season — ending the club’s 19-year wait for a league title. During his time in the capital, he collected two more Portuguese cups and another league title, forging an impressive reputation as one of the game’s hot, up-and-coming young managers.
Amorim is committed to a 3-4-3 formation, which he’s used immediately upon arriving at United. This alteration, as well as a major emphasis on intensity and pressing will be a major departure, as a well as a challenge, for a side which has constantly reverted to a low-energy, reactive style under several managers. It remains to be seen whether the new man can impose his will on the collective and shape it accordingly. Surely, it will take some time to accomplish - and probably a couple of transfer windows - although United possess some young players who could adapt more easily.
He’s a pragmatic operator, who name-checks Jose Mourinho as an influence, so is hardly some naive, experimental guru. Like the Special One, Amorim tailors his gameplan to the opposition and, within the confines of the 3-4-3 system, his approach will be highly variable. Sometimes he’ll favour build-up play, other times he’ll go direct. In one game he’ll defend deep, in others the defensive line will push up high. The wing-backs will be progressive and wide players, such as Alejandro Garnacho will have to play infield, behind the lone striker and in front of two combative midfielders, in what is in effect a “box” shape.
Manchester United v FK Bodo/Glimt - UEFA Europa League 2024/25 League Phase MD5 Hojlund bags the winner against Bodo/Glimt on Thursday
Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images
The 39-year-old fosters a collaborative atmosphere, emphasizing the group and is quick to apportion credit for success to his players and deflect it from himself — a quality which is sure to endear him to both the team and United’s fans alike.
Player Assessment
United’s captain, Bruno Fernandes figures to be a key man in the new setup. The 30-year-old is a smart, experienced operator who’s hurt Everton before and will be a threat today. One of the team’s more creative players, he’s posting an SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) statistic of 4.5 and providing 2.21 key passes per 90 minutes.
Garnacho scored a memorable goal at Goodison last season and will be a danger in his new role under Amorim. The Argentine loves to carry the ball at pace - though a 19.4% success rate with his dribbling isn’t impressive - but he does break into the opposition area 2.92 times per 90. The 20-year-old leads the hosts with three league goals.
Solution
It’s hard to imagine Everton travelling to Manchester with great attacking ambition today, despite United being in the very early stages of what they hope will be a revolution under their new boss and are - theoretically - vulnerable. They started well against the Tractor Boys last weekend, but were given a tough ride by the promoted side. On Thursday, a rotated - though still strong - team again scored in the opening minutes, before being punished by the Norwegians, who led heading towards the end of the first half.
Rasmus Højlund hit back twice and the home side were able to get over the line in a game they largely dominated, but it’s possible that the Blues could hurt United in transition, should they arrive at Old Trafford with belief in what they are being asked to do. That’s a big question with Everton currently: are the players entirely convinced by how they are setting up to play? They look solid enough defensively, but uncertain going forward, once the early tempo drops off — which it did after less than ten minutes against the Bees.
Everton FC v Brentford FC - Premier League Will Dominic Calvert-Lewin lead the line today? Probably.
Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images
We know what we will see from the visitors, in terms of formation — a 4-2-3-1; and there’s not likely to be a much change in personnel, with the choice between either Orel Mangala or Abdoulaye Doucoure in midfield, and Jesper Lindstrom or Jack Harrison on the right. With the Toffees sitting back and inviting the hosts on, it’s to be expected that the Red Devils will take full advantage and look to pressure them. This will buoy up the Old Trafford faithful, who will no doubt give vocal support to anything resembling high-tempo attacking football, after watching them toil under ten Hag.
I wish I had some confidence in Everton seriously troubling United. It’s possible that Dyche’s negative tactics could frustrate the opposition, and so maybe eke out a gritty draw, but I don’t think this will bring rewards and if and when the Blues concede first, then we’re looking at an uphill struggle. Under Dyche, the Toffees have lost all four meetings with United, by a scoreline of 10-1, so there’s the form book to consider. Hopefully, we don’t see the abject, passive setup which the team used at Tottenham Hotspur, and they’ll offer a little more in the way of attacking intent.
Prediction:Manchester United 2-0 Everton
Stats provided courtesy offbref.com and transfermarkt.co.uk