Manchester City are 11 points below Liverpool after losing 2-0 at Anfield
This looks like being Pep Guardiola's worst ever season as a manager
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By ROBERT SUMMERSCALES and TOM WHITE, PRESS ASSOCIATION
Published: 15:42 EST, 2 December 2024 | Updated: 15:42 EST, 2 December 2024
After Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Liverpool, Manchester City have now gone seven games without a win in all competitions - losing six of those matches.
Pep Guardiola's men are 11 points off the top of the Premier League and now just four points ahead of Manchester United, who have a superior goal difference.
City have scored fewer goals than Brentford and conceded more than Crystal Palace.
According to Opta, City now have only a 4.4 per cent chance of winning the title this season - after being champions in each of the past four campaigns.
But where has it all gone so wrong for City?
Interestingly, City are actually still winning when it comes to expected goals. Despite sitting fifth in the real Premier League table, City remain top of the xG ladder.
Manchester City fell 11 points behind in the Premier League title race on Sunday afternoon
No 9 Erling Haaland pictured with manager Pep Guardiola after City's 2-0 loss at Liverpool
City's average xG in league games this season has been 2.08, which is higher than any other team. Tottenham are second with 1.81 per game, while Liverpool are third with 1.72.
Defensively, City top the xG charts too, with an average score of 1.05 per game in terms of anticipated goals against. Again, Spurs have the second best record (1.15), followed by Liverpool (1.18).
If xG replaced real goals, City would have scored 27.04 this season and conceded 13.65. In the real world, Guardiola's men have scored 22 and conceded 19.
On one hand, this data suggests that - over the long run - City will likely return to winning ways as they are creating significantly more chances than their opponents.
But another way to look at it is that their finishing needs to improve drastically.
City have averaged more shots per game (18.7) than any other Premier League team this season but have scored fewer goals than Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Brentford.
Star striker Erling Haaland has only scored two goals in his last eight league games, despite playing the full 90 minutes on each occasion.
Those two goals have come from 38 shots, just 16 of which have been on target.
City striker Haaland has only scored two goals from his last 38 shots in the Premier League
After losing at Anfield, City have now gone seven games without a win in all competitions
City's results have also dipped drastically since Ballon d'Or winner Rodri injured his anterior cruciate ligament in September. City had started the Premier League season with four straight wins before Rodri sustained a potentially season-ending injury in a 2-2 draw with Arsenal in September.
Rodri was initially replaced in the centre of midfield by Mateo Kovacic, but he has since also joined the injury list. Since Rodri's injury blow, City have taken just 10 points from a possible 24 in the Premier League.
So, is their title bid over? City certainly have a mountain to climb.
Only three times in Premier League history - and not once since the 1990s - have teams overcome a deficit of 11 points or more to win the title.
Manchester United overturned 12-point deficits in 1992-93 and 1995-96. Arsenal were then 13 points behind United, albeit with a game in hand, in December 1997 before they went on to finish top by a point thanks to a run of 10 straight wins from March to May.
Former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss Guardiola has grown accustomed to winning. He has only failed to win a league title in three of his 15 seasons as a manager. But his City side will get nowhere near the Premier League title this season unless their points-per-game tally improves significantly.
City's points-per-game average this season has fallen from 2.56 to 1.77 as a result of their recent four-match losing run in the league.
That has them on course for a final tally of 67 points, which would be their lowest total since they got 66 in 2015-16 - the season before Guardiola took charge.
Before losing at Anfield, City were beaten twice by Spurs - including a 4-0 thrashing at home
Guardiola is used to winning league titles but City now only have a 4.4% chance this season
Before the current campaign, Guardiola's average points haul per season with City was 89.5.
Guardiola's lowest ever points total as a manager was 78 in his first season at City, with even his 34-game Bundesliga seasons at Bayern exceeding that mark.
He has never previously lost four consecutive league games and on eight separate occasions has lost fewer than that over a full season.
Quite apart from the title, City's Champions League qualification could be in doubt. Seven teams have previously finished a Premier League season with 67 points, with five finishing fourth and the other two in fifth.
Widening the scope slightly, 39 teams have finished with between 65 and 69 points, with an average finishing position of 4.3. Should England again end up with four Champions League qualifiers, rather than five, City must stop the rot to ensure their presence.