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Our resident FPL expert explains how he compares players when deciding who to sign ahead of Gameweek 14.
We’re only a few weeks away from the hectic festive footballing period, but the Premier League calendar seems to be celebrating early – a set of midweek matches means a chance to get used to the packed Christmas schedule and, of course, a Fantasy Premier League deadline that will probably catch quite a few people out.
Our resident FPL expert won’t be one of them, however, and he’s here once more to help all of you make some key decisions ahead of Gameweek 14 – and before we hand over, we’ll offer up a very necessary warning that the next deadline is Tuesday night at 18:00 GMT. Don’t miss it!
How to pick the right bandwagon
I suppose I should probably start today off with an apology to anyone who followed by advice to the letter last week – it turns out that holding off on selling Son Heung-Min for Bukayo Saka wasn’t the smartest idea I’ve ever had, and if you followed suit, then I can only accept the blame and reassure you that my ranking suffered as well. Still, we live and learn, and in this case we learn that it’s rarely right not to have Saka in your squad somewhere…
Still, finding a way to sign Saka isn’t the only thing that I’ll have to worry about – we’re starting to move towards a significant shift in fixture difficulty for several teams, and that means making quite a few transfers over the next couple of weeks. Several key players are looking like much weaker signings right now, with Brentford and Nottingham Forest assets looking like questionable holds for the coming weeks.
I’m one of thousands of FPL players looking for ways to get rid of Bryan Mbeumo and Chris Wood while working out how to sign not only Saka but cheaper assets who will offer up substantial returns over the Christmas period. So how do I work out which in-form players to go for, and which to swerve?
Fixture difficulty is the obvious starting point, but it’s not the be all and end all. Plenty of players keep the points ticking against tougher teams – and there are plenty of cheap options right now on pretty impressive form. So when you sell Wood, should you sign João Pedro or Evanilson? If you want to turn Mbeumo into a cheap midfielder so you can spend more elsewhere, does the recent form of Enzo Fernández or Justin Kluivert mean that they’re serious options for your side?
Let’s take the example of Fernández. Defensive midfielders are rarely high-quality assets, but the Argentine has now scored twice on the bounce and has two assists in his last three games. Furthermore, he set up three goals in the Europa Conference League win over FC Noah and bagged another assist on international duty a couple of weeks ago. He’s on remarkably productive form, Chelsea have great fixtures coming up and he only costs £4.8m.
That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a great get, however – the stats tell a slightly different story. Fernández averages just one shot per game under his namesake Enzo Maresca, and while he may have scored his two goals off an xG of 1.4, he probably isn’t some secretly deadly finisher given that he scored three goals from 6.2xG in his last Premier League campaign.
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In other words, he isn’t likely to keep scoring. But assists, perhaps? Well, maybe, but the two recent top-flight assists he picked up came from 0.27xG’s worth of chances, so he beat the averages pretty soundly there thanks to some tidy finishing by his team-mates. On average, Fernández creates enough chances to generate an assist once every six games – slightly down on last season’s numbers, although it’s worth remembering that FPL are more generous with what constitutes an assist than statisticians are.
Basically, he’s on a hot streak but there isn’t any statistical evidence that he’s likely to sustain it, and buying in on him in order to get more Chelsea assets is probably a pretty thin justification for doing so.
Kluivert’s numbers are considerably better – he averages 0.55xG per game for himself and a respectable 0.21 expected assists, but those numbers are inflated artificially by a run of penalties, including three in Bournemouth’s last game. Buying penalty takers is sensible, but he doesn’t look likely to sustain his recent run of FPL form, either. Both players look like traps for the unwary. If you are looking for a cheap midfielder to tie things together, by the way, I am interested in seeing whether Ruben Amorim’s arrival makes Amad Diallo competitive at £5.0m. If I buy such a player this week, that would be my pick.
Let’s apply the same logic to the striker situation. We may need to sell Wood (and perhaps Yoane Wissa), so where do we go? If we assume that Matheus Cunha is too expensive – if you can afford to push your striker budget, Nicolas Jackson is a must-have right now, not that I blame anyone for buying Cunha – then three options stand out: João Pedro, Evanilson and Liam Delap.
Evanilson is comfortably ahead on expected goals this season, and on average is getting into positions to score an extra goal every five games compared to the other two. He’s also got a strong track record over the course of his career and scoring at a solid rate compared to his xG – we can reliably anticipate him scoring roughly as many as he ‘should’. Unfortunately, his hat-trick of assists over the weekend was a bit of a red herring, as he’s averaging just 0.07xA per match.
That’s the same as Delap, as it happens, who is also averaging 0.32xG per game compared to 0.52xG for Bournemouth’s Brazilian. Throw in some very dodgy form in front of goal over the last couple of games, and there’s no meaningful argument for signing Delap right now.
That leaves us with Pedro v Evanilson. Pedro is scoring at the best rate of the three by far – a superb 0.82 goals per game – but his xG is down with Delap’s, so his chances of scoring more than his countryman depend on whether you believe his fine finishing form will last. Evidence from across his career suggests he will regress slightly. Pedro does, however, create enough chances to earn assists far more frequently than his compatriot.
So Evanilson will, all things being even, score more, but Pedro might make up for it with assists. Their fixture difficulty over the coming month or so is close. So how do you decide? Go with stats over form is my advice – Pedro is hot right now, but Evanilson will, all things being even, score more often. Still, if you can sign Nicolas Jackson…
Captain picks and 3 Added Minutes FC
A confession has to be made here – I have had a terrible run of captain picks that’s eaten away at my ranking and left me way off my usual position in the global game. So there’s every chance you should just ignore what I’m about to say, because my luck has not been in with the armband.
If you do want some advice however, I’m still off Erling Haaland even though a home fixture against Nottingham Forest looks like a tempting target. Manchester City’s form as a whole simply can’t be trusted. This week, it’s a Chelsea man for me and I’m probably going captain Palmer and vice Jackson. So Haaland is about to hit a hat-trick. He can thank me later.
All of which brings us back, as ever, to my somewhat disappointing example team, one which has seen enough mistakes to mean that there are some extra zeroes on the end of my ranking compared to last season that I’m far from comfortable with. Having Son instead of Saka to chase fixture difficulty has proved to be a bad error, and is further evidence that strength of schedule isn’t the most important thing to worry about.
Fantasy Premier League
I plan to make four changes over the next two weeks, and just need to figure out the order. Mbeumo, Wissa, Son and Wood are all coming out, and barring injuries and the like I will bring in Jackson, Evanilson (or Pedro if I can’t make the money work), Saka and a cheaper midfielder, quite possibly Diallo. I don’t mind holding Brentford assets this week given Aston Villa’s recent poor form, so Wood is top of the list for the chop.
That’s all for this week – best of luck to all of you, and may all of your new signings score the goals you need. And may all of you learn that you never, ever sell Saka…
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