On paper, Tottenham Hotspur seem to be holding their own in a competitive Premier League season, but are the underlying numbers truly reflective of their campaign, or is there more to this story than meets the eye?
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Tottenham struggles masked by underlying numbers
Tottenham’s season has been one of highs and lows, and their recent run of results perfectly encapsulates the challenges they face under Ange Postecoglou.
Plagued by injuries to seven key players, the team has struggled to maintain consistency, which is evident in their last five fixtures.
The Lilywhites suffered a 3-2 loss to Galatasaray in the Europa League and followed it up with a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Ipswich Town in the Premier League.
Despite this, they managed to deliver a resounding 4-0 victory against Manchester City, only to draw 2-2 with AS Roma and 1-1 with Fulham in subsequent games.
These results highlight the unpredictable nature of Spurs’ performances, as they often show flashes of brilliance but fail to sustain their momentum.
The inconsistency in results could easily lead one to believe that Spurs are struggling across the board, but their underlying numbers tell a different story—one that suggests there is more promise to this side than recent results indicate.
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Tottenham’s xGD: A different narrative
Despite their on-field challenges, Tottenham’s underlying metrics reveal a team that is outperforming many of their rivals in key statistical areas.
One such metric is xGD (expected goal difference), which measures the difference between a team’s xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals against).
According to data shared by Whoscored on X, Tottenham have the fourth-highest xGD in the league at 7.61, trailing only Liverpool (15.98), Arsenal (10.44), and Fulham (7.95).
How every side in the Premier League this season ranks for Expected Goal Difference (xGD).
What do the underlying numbers say about your team? 📊 pic.twitter.com/TDeRbjuBxq
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) December 2, 2024
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This statistic highlights Tottenham’s ability to create high-quality chances while limiting their opponents’ opportunities, suggesting a strong underlying performance.
While these numbers suggest that Spurs are competitive and capable of challenging at the top, they are not fully reflected in their league position or recent results.
The gap between statistical promise and actual outcomes points to a deeper issue—one that lies beyond the numbers.
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Stats versus reality: A closer look at Spurs’ performance
Tottenham’s season so far has been a tale of two realities. On one hand, they boast the highest goal tally in the league, a testament to their attacking prowess.
On the other hand, they sit fourth in terms of goals conceded, which is not too bad considering that the second-best in terms of goals conceded has conceded one fewer goal than Spurs.
However, the reality is, while the stats might suggest that Spurs are performing well, a closer examination of their matches reveals a team that struggles during crucial phases of games.
These struggles often result in defensive lapses or individual errors, which are not always captured by advanced metrics like xGD.
Moments of lost concentration have frequently turned otherwise dominant performances into draws or narrow defeats, impacting their ability to string together a consistent run of wins.
This dichotomy between statistical success and real-world struggles highlights the complexity of Tottenham’s season.
Although their underlying numbers show promise, the reality of their performances on the pitch tells a more nuanced story—one where the finer margins can make all the difference.
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