On Sunday, Everton entered a demanding run of fixtures, which extends until the end of January — 13 matches in all. Hopes that the team may raise its game and pick up some unexpected points evaporated before halftime at Old Trafford, with Everton trailing by two goals, and a third immediately after the interval cemented a demoralizing result.
With morale reaching a new low on the season and a Merseyside derby against current runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool in three days’ time, the Blues must find a way to turn things around tonight. Arriving at Goodison Park for what is a pivotal match under the lights, will be Wolverhampton Wanders.
Form
Gary O’Neil was appointed as Julen Lopetegui’s replacement prior to the start of the 2023/24 campaign, amidst a falling out between the Basque and the club’s hierarchy over transfer plans; specifically a lack of funds for strengthening the squad. Wolves registered a net profit of €75.2m in player trading, but rookie boss O’Neil was still able to guide the team to a creditable 14th-place finish, bettering Lopetegui’s points tally from the prior campaign.
The Old Gold had spent big following their return to the top flight in 2018, so the belt-tightening continued into last summer, with the club registering a transfer profit of €38.1m. Big money was brought in from the sales of injury-prone, but talented winger Pedro Neto (€60m, Chelsea) and starting centre half Max Kilman (€47.5m, West Ham), along with a host sent out on loan, including former €40m striker Fábio Silva — who, incidentally is performing well at UD Las Palmas, in la Liga.
Bolstered by sales, the club was able to spend almost €75m on eight additions ahead of the new campaign. Of the new arrivals, by some margin the most impactful has been Norwegian striker Jørgen Strand Larsen (loan, Celta de Vigo), who’s started every league game so far, scoring six goals in 13 appearances. Brazilian defensive midfielder André (€22m, Fluminense) has recently broken into the lineup, but otherwise O’Neil has relied on the players he had available last term.
Wolves endured a terrible start to the season, losing seven of their initial eight matches — securing just a single point from a visit to Nottingham Forest at the end of August. According to OPTA models, they experienced the toughest opening to the campaign of all 20 Premier League teams, and have since stabilized somewhat. Consecutive 2-2 draws with Brighton and Crystal Palace were followed by a first win of the season, over lowly Southampton and they quickly added a second, thrashing Fulham 4-1 at Craven Cottage. At the weekend, their good run was ended in bizarre fashion, as they conspired to concede a staggering three penalties at Molineux, being beaten 4-2.
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League Justin Kluivert scores an unprecedented third penalty in one game as Wolves self-destructed on Saturday
Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images
They arrive at Goodison in 18th place in the table, two points behind Everton.
Style of Play
O’Neil demonstrated strong man management capabilities last term, in overcoming a fairly challenging situation to steer Wolves clear of any problems. This has clearly been in evidence this term also, as even during what was a dreadful opening to the campaign, heads did not drop and the team played with self-belief and even a bit of flair at times. Whilst he is still relatively inexperienced, the 41-year-old is full of energy, enthusiasm for the job and is willing to accept responsibility and to learn from setbacks, characteristic which should help him to develop as a manager.
Indicative of this willingness to change and adapt, O’Neil has shifted formations several times, beginning with a 4-2-3-1, then moving to a 4-4-1-1, a 4-1-4-1, a 3-4-3 and finally back to the 4-2-3-1 for the last two matches. Obviously there’s a strength in embracing such flexibility — though it may be taxing on some players to change the system with such frequency. Last term he utilized a back three, familiar to many Wolves players under previous regimes. As a developing head coach, O’Neil is quite adaptable in his approach and likely tailors his game plan to suit the opponent.
Despite losing eight of their 13 league matches, Wolves have only failed to score once — in the season opener at Arsenal, so they possess some attacking talent. Tonight’s visitors have scored 22 times, from an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of just 13.3 (ranked 19th), which is a quite amazing overperformance — although potentially unsustainable, considering they are only registering 10.4 attempts on goal per 90 minutes. The West Midland outfit have scored a healthy number from open play (14), but have proved to be of the most dangerous sides on the counter, bagging six (ranked second).
They command a 45.0% share of possession, which ranks them 15th in the division. Their pass completion percentage is 81.0 (14th). Wolves are happy to go direct at times, with 12.9% of their passes considered long. Surprisingly, considering Strand Larsen is a classic number nine, they attempt the fewest crosses in the league — just 13 per game. The Old Gold are fairly balanced in attack, though slightly favour the left side of the pitch.
Wolves have the worst defence in the division, in terms of goals conceded, with 32. In almost a mirror image of their offensive overperformance, an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 24.1 suggests that defensively they aren’t quite as appalling as the real-world number would imply, but that xGA still ranks 18th. Those figures have partly been exacerbated by the team conceding division-high number of set-piece goals (nine) and penalties (five), although 17 from open play shows there is vulnerability in ever facet. Surprisingly, they only allow a middling 14.7 attempts on their goal per game (15th).
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League Strand Larsen powers a header home against the Cherries last weekend
Photo by James Gill - Danehouse/Getty Images
Player Assessment
The visitors’ star man is attacking midfielder Matheus Cunha. Playing behind the main striker, the one-time Everton target is the team’s leading scorer, with seven and he’s bagged four and provided three assists in his last five appearances. Adept at finding space, the 25-year-old leads Wolves in SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) with 3.89, key passes (1.86), dribbles 4.32 (47.1% success rate), progressive carries (3.56) and carries into the opposition area (1.69) per 90.
Stand Larsen is providing the focal point that the team lost when Raúl Jiménez suffered that terrible injury. Standing 6’4, he’s a target man who wins 43.1% of his aerial duels, but is not one-dimensional, being quicker than he appears, and possessing good movement and intelligence. He’s only taking 1.6 shots per game, but is highly accurate, hitting the target 68.4% of the time. The 24-year-old arrives at Goodison having scored a brace at the weekend.
Solution
With Everton playing three games over a six-day period, Sean Dyche will need to shake things up — particularly in the aftermath of the 4-0 humbling by Manchester United. Tonight’s game is one of the few clearly winnable fixtures the team has over the next two months, so he has got to get it right, both in terms of selection and tactics. The Blues have not beaten Wolves since May 2021; last season, they failed to even score, losing 1-0 at home and 3-0 at Molineux.
It’s impossible to second guess what the manager will do, but I’d like to see the trio of Vitalii Mykolenko, James Tarkowski and Abdoulaye Doucoure sat down. All have been poor so far this season and need to be rotated out of the starting lineup, giving others a chance to state their case for inclusion. In should come Orel Mangala, Nathan Patterson and either Michael Keane, or Jake O’Brien, who have either played solidly when given a chance, or been entirely overlooked.
Patterson showed more attacking impetus in a late cameo against United than any of Everton’s fullbacks have all season. The 23-year-old’s development has been hampered by injuries and he’s clearly not favoured by Dyche, but he offers the athleticism, energy and willingness to get forward that nobody else possesses. His presence will give whoever is selected to play right wing the support that’s been lacking.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton FC - Premier League Nathan Patterson should be given a genuine shot tonight
Photo by Neal Simpson/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images
I’m expecting Dominic Calvert-Lewin to return up top, but otherwise the attack should look the same, with Dwight McNeil still bafflingly being preferred as a central attacking midfielder, despite Everton signing two players who are more suitable for the position during the summer — in Iliman Ndiaye and Jesper Lindstrøm, both of whom have played the role far more than on the wing, at their previous clubs. Maybe Dyche will change it up, but I doubt it.
Wolves offer a goal threat, particularly in transition; a concern given the Toffees can be caught out in such situations, and are particularly susceptible when their own offensive set-pieces break down. The visitors have plenty of flair and pace in the side, with Cunha in particularly capable of being a real menace with his swashbuckling runs. They defend set-pieces poorly, however and the hosts need to revitalize their routines, which had proven a major threat under Dyche, but which now look stale and predictable.
Another route to goal will be in forcing errors from the Wolves defence. They imploded at the weekend, offering up three penalties due to overplaying at the back and if there’s one thing the Blues can do it’s forcing turnovers — though taking advantage has proven difficult. The home side should look to put the West Midlanders under intense early pressure, seeking to force errors. I feel Wolves will score, so the onus is on Everton to create big chances and to seize them, for once. Sadly, given the mood surrounding the club, I can’t find it within myself to anticipate a win.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Wolves
Statistics provided courtesy offbref.com,whoscored.comandtransfermarkt.co.uk
May 2021 - last win v Wolves