Aston Villa are without a win in their last eight matches in all competitions
Unai Emery's side have slipped to 14th in the Premier League after dismal run
LISTEN NOW: Manchester City correspondent Jack Gaughan joins It's All Kicking Off! to explain whether Pep Guardiola will have money to spend in January
By HARRY PASCOE
Published: 12:09 EST, 4 December 2024 | Updated: 12:09 EST, 4 December 2024
Aston Villa are a team in dire straits. Their 3-0 loss to Chelsea at the weekend was compounded by a toothless performance, in which Ollie Watkins looked bereft of confidence, and Villa’s brittle backline was ruthlessly exposed.
Villa had started the season in much the same vein as they ended the last, winning four of their first five games to rise to third. It looked as though they were ready for another assault on the top four in England’s top flight.
But things have since unravelled for Unai Emery quicker than anyone could have anticipated since then. Villa are currently 12th, four places below Wednesday’s opponents Brentford.
The club are in the most significant slump yet seen under the Spanish manager, who guided them to Champions League football after a superb campaign last time out.
So what are the underlying trends behind Aston Villa’s recent decline? What is so different about this season compared to last? And what measures could be taken to stop the rot?
Here, Mail Sport takes a look inside Villa's early-season crisis.
Aston Villa suffered a 3-0 defeat by Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday to compound their ongoing issues
Unai Emery's side have slipped to 12th in the Premier League after their dismal recent run
Ollie Watkins has struggled to recapture the form that saw him establish himself as one of the division's best strikers next season
Where have the goals gone?
The first step to understanding Villa’s slump is to determine why the goals have dried up. They have scored a total of five goals in their last eight competitive fixtures, and they have failed to score in four of the last five.
It starts with the misfiring Watkins, whose output has slowed significantly. Scoring just one goal in his last eight games, it is his least productive spell since autumn of 2022 - at a time when he was a relative amateur to top flight football and a far less developed player than he is now.
Similarly, early season supersub Jhon Duran has become something of a non-factor off the bench. At the start of the campaign, Duran looked like he would score with every touch of the ball but recently has become ineffective, rarely getting involved over the last month or so. He has failed to get on the scoresheet since the end of October.
However, the strikers are not wholly to blame; a host of goalscorers from last season have failed to live up to the same standards this campaign, Leon Bailey chief amongst them. The Jamaican winger scored 12 goals across all competitions last season, and contributed 25 goal involvements in total.
However, this season he is yet to find the back of the net, and with just three assists in 18 games, his spot in the starting XI could be considered up for grabs.
It seems that Villa’s chief goal scorers are suddenly feeling pressure in front of goal. Last season, no one expected anything of them, and that played right into Emery’s hands. No expectations mean no pressure - and Villa thrived in playing the role of party pooper.
As a result, Watkins, Duran, Bailey and others such as Moussa Diaby and John McGinn, all outperformed their expected goals figure comfortably. This season, only Duran has carried over that clinical form in front of goal - and even he has struggled of late.
Villa's main attackers have failed to reproduce their numbers last season, while the club are without Moussa Diaby (front) after his sale to Al-Ittihad
[item name=module id=124549765 style=undefined /]
Leaky Defence
In contrast to their usually more than proficient attack, Villa’s defence has seen a sharp downturn in efficiency. Since their last win, a 2-0 Champions League victory over Bologna in October, Villa have shipped 15 goals in the last eight games.
Last season, they did have similar leaky runs, but they were typically able to either match or outscore their opponents, which resulted in more than a handful of thrilling games for the neutral.
In recent games, they have instead been predictable when on the attack, and with no clear improvement on their defence since last season, the games in which they concede multiple goals have suddenly become a great deal more costly, as they now lack the element of surprise.
And while they may have had a shaky defence at times last season, the statistics behind their defensive actions this season indicate that things are going further downhill.
This season, players across both the defence and midfield have seen a decline in their tackle success rate, something which may hint at an underlying problem at Villa Park.
Although there has been some turnover in the squad since the end of last campaign, the drop in intensity and success rate seems inexplicable, and Emery clearly has some defence-oriented work to do on the training ground if he is to turn his side around.
As of Friday last week, there would have been the silver lining of Emi Martinez in goal to discuss. Up to this point, Martinez’ save percentage across all competitions stands at 74.7 per cent, a whole 7 per cent better than last season's figure of 67.0 per cent. However, in sustaining a wrist injury that forced him off at half time in the game against Chelsea, Emery doesn’t even have that going for him anymore.
Villa have not excelled when it comes to tackling success rate in the league, with most of their defenders seeing a reduction in this statistic this term
Poor transfer business?
On the face of it, Villa had an admirable summer transfer window, raking in almost £130 million in sales, and splashing out £18m extra on the likes of Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen and Jaden Philogene.
However, they did lose a few stalwarts in their wheeling and dealing, most significantly Douglas Luiz, Moussa Diaby, and talented youngster Tim Iroegbunam. Luiz in particular was a big loss, as he provided both defensive stability and a goalscoring touch, a balance they haven’t appeared to have struck with any of their new signings.
Philogene has struggled to start despite playing in the same position of the departed Diaby, while Onana, after an effective start to the season, has faded into obscurity. Even Ian Maatsen has played just 230 minutes, despite arriving with a hefty price tag of £37.5m from Chelsea, where he was tipped to be a standout academy graduate.
The only piece of business they can look at with any inkling of success is the £5m arrival of Ross Barkley from Luton, who has consistently shown quality in his many cameo’s from the bench, despite being offered a starting spot just twice by Emery.
It has long been known that replacing key players is one of the hardest things to do in the sport, and Aston Villa have provided a perfect example of what happens if you fail.
The Midlands club look to be missing the contribution of Douglas Luiz, who joined Juventus in the summer
Jaden Philogene thrilled with Hull City in the Championship last season but has failed to earn many starts under Emery this term
How does Emery revive his side?
It is a tough question to answer. It is beyond argument that Emery is a top manager; no side finishes in the top four without a great deal of managerial nous guiding them. However, he is posed with a tricky task.
The drop in form is not something that can be attributed to just one metric and it appears the Spaniard has at least three, and possibly more, key areas to address if his team are to turn things around.
It may be that the new signings haven’t quite clicked with the rest of the team, or it could be they are neglecting key aspects of the game in training, which is unlikely.
The most logical perspective seems to be that the players are learning to cope with new levels of expectation. Qualifying for the Champions League after being predicted to finish mid-table prior to last season is a significant achievement, one that brings out the magnifying glass on the team for the following season.
Many of the first team are still aged 25 or under, and they are still perhaps learning to play with lofty expectations on their shoulders. As a result, as opposed to being fearless and taking risks on the pitch, they are instead worried about making errors, often opting for the safest options in most scenarios, both with and without the ball.
Perhaps this is just an issue that time sorts out. The more they play together, the more they understand each other, and over time they will learn to cope with the pressure that being a Champions League football club brings with it. They are too good to finish in the bottom half of the league this season, but they need to start showing it sooner rather than later.