_Stats are from FBRef unless stated otherwise, and do not include the win over Nottingham Forest_
Manchester City won a football match! Convincingly! Everything’s coming up Pep!
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Just one thing: that’s not supposed to be news. City winning is supposed to be the most routine thing in the world, and now it’s not.
Five losses and one draw in their previous six games. 17 goals conceded across those matches (one short of three a game). That shouldn’t be possible. This is Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. This is the no-expense-spared side that won six of the last seven league titles. This is the team that causes people to fret over competitive balance because they’re too good. And they look a shambles.
Our eyes are not deceiving us here. There really are problems. Their 7.83 shots conceded per game in the league this season is still the best in the division. Even over the nightmare run (across all competitions), 9.83 shots conceded is far from horrendous (it’s pretty similar to Liverpool this season). But the _quality_ of those chances has been the stuff of nightmares. An xG per shot conceded of 0.16 – as in, the average shot they face has a 16% chance of going in the goal – is the worst in the top flight. Over the last five games pre-Forest (because we don’t have the data for the Carabao Cup), that’s jumped to 0.25 which, trust me, is ludicrously high.
They’re not conceding a lot of chances overall, but when they do get broken down, they’re incredibly soft. The attack is experiencing its own issues, as the side is so reliant on Erling Haaland right now. In a Guardiola side, you can’t really separate the attack and defence into discrete phases. This whole story runs right through the midfield.