One of the most beautiful things about the beautiful game is its sheer unpredictability. Literally any team can beat any other team on any given day. A club’s form and fortunes can change quickly (ahem…Manchester City), causing unexpected joy and deep despair among supporters.
Of course, this makes predicting the outcome of any match, let alone an entire season, a fool’s errand at best. Yet, we still try. Of course, this makes it great fun to look back at predictions to see what went right – and what didn’t.
Now that we’re about four months into the 2024-25 season, it’s interesting to peruse the experts’ preseason prognostications to reveal some shocking surprises. Below we gauge three clubs across the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A that are outperforming expectations.
Can they maintain their spectacular early season form to become true Cinderella stories at the end of the campaign? Only time will tell.
Note: We’re using each team’s predicted finish based on Opta’s preseason analysis revealed during the summer. In no way do we mean to call out Opta for being “wrong.” In fact, the big shockers we detail below underscore how bloody difficult it is for even proven soccer gurus to foretell the future.
Team: Brighton
Predicted 2024-25 finish: 11th
Current place: 4th
Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club are based in Brighton and Hove, a small city on the south coast of England. They were founded in 1901 and are currently owned by Tony Bloom, who (believe it or not) is a professional gambler.
They play home matches at American Express Stadium (aka the Amex, aka Falmer Stadium), which has a capacity of nearly 32,000.
Maybe Brighton’s early season success isn’t that much of a shock. After all, this has been a club on the rise in the past three seasons. The Seagulls were promoted to the EPL in 2017 and spent four campaigns battling relegation.
They finally broke through in 2021-22 by finishing ninth, their best-ever season in the top fight. Brighton went three places better in 2022-23, finishing sixth despite losing manager Graham Potter to Chelsea only six games into the season. Italian Roberto de Zerbi took over as boss and led the Seagulls to the semifinal of the FA Cup and European qualification for the first time in team history.
Brighton slipped to 11th place in 2023-24. Perhaps having to play an extra eight matches in the Europa League was too much, as the club was plagued by injuries much of the season. Despite Brighton winning their Europa League group, de Zerbi and Brighton parted ways by “mutual consent” at the end of the campaign.
Coming into 2024-25, Fabien Hurzler, the Texas-born Swiss-German, took over as manager to become the youngest gaffer in Premier League history at age 31. The dear departed de Zerbi had spent his final months at Brighton complaining that the club was not bringing in sufficient talent. So he must have been rolling his eyes this past summer.
The Seagulls broke their transfer record twice, acquiring 22-year-old forward Georginio Rutter from Leeds for €46.7 million and 19-year-old winger Yankuba Minteh from Newcastle for €35 million.
They also bought defensive midfielder Mats Wieffer from Feyenoord (€32 million), winger Brajan Gruda from Mainz (€31.5 million), left-back Ferdi Kadioglu from Fenerbahce (€30 million) and central midfielder Matt O’Riley from Celtic (€29.5 million). In owner Bloom’s biggest gamble to date, Brighton spent a shocking €195.7 million on transfers this past summer, nearly double their record spending in the summer of 2023.
So far, Bloom’s bets are paying off. All six of the above signings are contributing regularly and playing well, save for Riley. He was injured on his debut in August and required ankle surgery. Symbolic of what a magical season Brighton are enjoying so far, he scored on his return to action Nov. 9 in the Seagulls’ victory against Man City.
Ironically, it's a club veteran, not a newcomer, who is leading the attack for Brighton. Danny Wellbeck, age 34, has six goals and two assists through 13 matches.
Other than the win over Man City, highlights for the Seagulls this season include victories over Manchester United and Tottenham. The bad news for Brighton is that these are the only three wins the Seagulls have against teams in the top half of the EPL table. Are they for real? It remains to be seen.
Team: Mallorca
Predicted 2024-25 finish: 12th
Current place: 6th
Real Club Deportivo Mallorca was founded in 1916. The club is majority-owned by Andy Kohlberg, a former professional tennis player from San Diego. Minority owners include former NBA players Steve Kerr and Steve Nash. Their nickname is the "bermellon," a local version of the word vermilion, which describes their red jerseys.
They play home matches in Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (capacity approximately 25,000) in the city of Palma on the island of Mallorca in the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, located off the east coast of mainland Spain.
In 2010, Mallorca went bankrupt. After experiencing a revolving door of owners, the club was acquired by an investment group including former NBA Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver and Kohlberg.
The club fell all the way to Spain’s third division after the 2017 season. They brought in manager Vicente Moreno, who led them to back-to-back promotions and a return to La Liga in 2019. They were relegated again, but bounced right back up in 2021.They’ve stayed up since, with Kohlberg buying our Sarver and other investors in 2023.
Last season, Mallorca finished a lowly 15th in La Liga. But they provided a hint of what was to come by going unbeaten in five of their last six matches. They also reached the final of the Copa del Rey in April, where they lost to Athletic Club Bilbao on penalties.
This season, manager Javier Aguirre was replaced by Jagoba Arrasate, who brings his decade of experience as head man on the sideline. Mallorca started slowly, earning one point from their first three matches. Then they caught fire, winning five of their next seven. Coming into this weekend, they’ve won two of their last three.
Surprisingly, they find themselves in sixth place despite spending basically no money in the summer transfer window. They brought in left-back Johan Mojica from Villarreal (€1.5 million) and 22-year-old midfielder Robert Navarro from Real Sociedad (€850,000).
Mojica has played very well, inspiring a defense that had surrendered only 13 goals in 15 matches before a 5-1 loss to Barcelona on Dec. 3. Center-backs Martin Valjent and captain Antonio Railo (combined ages: 71 years) have locked down opposing attackers
Unfortunately for Mallorca, much-heralded Japan international forward Takuma Asano, who came in on a free transfer from the Bundesliga, has underperformed. He has yet to record a goal or assist in 321 minutes of play. Midfielder Dani Rodriguez (age 36) has been the offensive star, producing three goals and four assists this season.
So far, the schedule has been utterly kind to Mallorca. Only two of their seven wins have come against clubs in the top half of the table – and those wins were against ninth-place Real Sociedad and 10th-place Real Betis. If the bermellon are going to have a chance of staying competitive this season, Kohlberg and his investors will surely have to open their wallets in the January transfer window as their fixtures become more challenging.
Team: Napoli
Predicted 2024-25 finish: 8th
Current place: 1st
Societa Sportiva Calcio Napoli was founded in 1926 in the historic city of Naples. But the club didn’t win its first major trophy until the 1962 Coppa Italia. Like Mallorca, Napoli also suffered bankruptcy (in 2004) before it was reorganized by a new owner, filmmaker Aurelio De Laurentiis.
Americans are more familiar with Aurelio’s relatives: celebrity chef Giada De Laurentiis and prolific filmmaker Dino De Laurentiis, producer of such hits as “The Bounty” and “Conan the Barbarian.”
Napoli’s most famous player was Argentine Diego Maradona, who led Gli Azzurri to five trophies, including their only European championship: the 1989 UEFA Cup. Following Maradona’s death in 2020, Napoli changed the name of its stadium to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Last season, Napoli battled for a top-five spot through the first 16 weeks, but then the wheels fell off. They won just one of their last 12 matches and sunk to a 10th-place finish. On the bright side, Napoli did make it to the round of 16 in the Champions League, where they were eliminated by Barcelona 4-2 on aggregate.
So exit manager Francesco Calzona (Napoli’s third gaffer last season) and enter Antonio Conte. The legend from Lecce parted ways with Tottenham this past March and joined Napoli in June on a three-year contract. He has since transformed Gli Azzurri into one of the hottest teams in Europe. After losing their first Serie A match of this season to lowly Verona on Aug. 18, Napoli have only lost once in 14 matches. They currently lead Atalanta by one point in the league table.
And they’re doing it without star forward Victor Osimhen, who is on loan to Galatasaray. Osimhen scored 15 goals and served up three assists in 25 matches last season. In his place, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Romelu Lukaku (signed from Chelsea) have stepped up, combining for 10 goals and seven assists in league play. Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Manchester United castoff Scott McTominay have added three goals each.
Their defense has been rock solid, surrendering just nine goals in 14 matches. Italy national team player Alessandro Buongiorno (acquired from Torino in the summer) and Amir Rfahami have been outstanding center-backs, while right-back Mathias Olivera has also stood out.
As a manager, Conte has won nine trophies with four different clubs. Given how well he has integrated Napoli’s new signings into this team, there’s no reason to think he can’t win a 10th trophy this season.
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