Everton ended their goal drought in sensational fashion against Wolves on Wednesday night, and heading into a tough period, there is plenty of reason for hope.
A weight has been taken off Everton Football Club.
A 4-0 thrashing of fellow relegation candidates Wolves on Wednesday night both lifted the mood at Goodison Park and lifted them up to 15th in the table, five points clear of the drop zone. It was exactly what they needed ahead of what could be the most difficult period of their whole season.
Sean Dyche’s side, who had before the Wolves game failed to score in four successive games – a run stretching back to late October – now face five games until the end of the year that will test them to their limits. If it wasn’t for the Wolves win, this upcoming run might have tested the club’s patience with their manager.
But Wednesday’s victory has cast any of Dyche’s doubters aside, at least for the time being. Defeat would have seen Wolves leapfrog Everton, who would have dropped into the relegation zone. Instead, they dominated in both penalty areas, took their chances, and won comfortably.
Everton 4-0 Wolves stats
Up next on Saturday are bitter rivals Liverpool, the runaway league leaders whose title bid Evertonians would love to further dent. Then, Everton travel to third-placed Arsenal, host second-placed Chelsea, travel to champions Manchester City, who returned to form with their own midweek win, and host Nottingham Forest, who are flying high in sixth and caused City plenty of problems on Wednesday night even if they did eventually lose.
Based on the average Opta Power Rating of each Premier League team’s next five opponents, Everton have the most difficult run of five fixtures to end 2024 of every team in the division. And by a distance, too.
Premier League fixture difficulty December
Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst
In January, things do get easier, but not all that much. Everton play Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brighton in their first four Premier League games of 2025.
The reason they have such a grim run of nine games is that they’ve just had a much kinder run. Everton have only faced one of last season’s top seven in their last 10 matches.
With that information, their record of only two defeats in their last 10 is rather less impressive than it might initially look. It is also true that the Wolves win was only their third victory of the season. That is rather alarming in the context of their relatively friendly schedule up until now.
Everton are at least difficult to beat. They have kept five clean sheets this season – fewer than only two other teams, as many as Arsenal (5), and more than Chelsea (3), Newcastle (3), Tottenham (3) and Manchester City (3) among the many others.
But when they do concede, the floodgates open too often. They have conceded 3+ goals in five games so far this season, a tally only Southampton (7), West Ham (6), Wolves (6) can match. It means that when they do lose, it can be really, really bad; sometimes even turn-on-your-manager bad.
Each of Everton’s six defeats this season have been hard to take. Three have come by a margin of at least three goals, two were back-to-back 3-2 losses after they’d held a 2-0 lead (one of which vs Bournemouth they held as late as the 87th minute), and the other was a 1-0 defeat to rock-bottom Southampton – still Saints’ only win of the season.
Heading into this brutal stretch of matches, Everton will need to be at their most disciplined and resolute at the back. Each of their next four opponents are more than capable of putting three goals past anyone in the league.
But if they can hold out at the back, they have every chance of nicking something at the other end, not least because they are such a threat at set-pieces.
Title-chasing Arsenal are showing just how valuable set-pieces can be, and are rightly being praised for the threat they pose. A focus on set-pieces has been a stick to beat Dyche with over the course of his managerial career, but any goal threat should surely be seen as a positive.
The only issue from Everton’s perspective is that they rely on set-pieces more than most. Only Nottingham Forest (33.2%) and Aston Villa (32.3%) have generated a higher proportion of their expected goals total from set-pieces in the Premier League this season than Everton (30.6%). They’re also joint top with Arsenal for goals scored from set-piece situations (eight) when including own goals (which don’t have an xG value as they aren’t shots), but miles clear at the top for the proportion of their goals that have come from set-pieces, with 57.1% (eight of 14).
So, should Everton’s use of set-pieces be viewed as a positive string to their bow or as a concern that they rely on them so heavily?
On Wednesday night, they doubled their set-piece goal total for the season, with all four of their goals against Wolves coming from dead balls – the first time since Man City vs Crystal Palace in January 2021 that a team has scored as many in a Premier League game.
They were also given a helping hand from Craig Dawson, who became only the fifth player in Premier League history to score 2+ own goals in a game. Ashley Young’s free-kick – with which he became the fourth-oldest goalscorer in Premier League history – was then followed by Orel Mangala’s strike from a half-cleared free-kick before Dawson twice turned into his own net from dead balls. There was also a disallowed goal from another set-piece, with James Tarkowski heading in only for the VAR to rule it out.
Going forwards, Everton can’t set out to be so reliant on set-pieces. Not everyone will fold as miserably as Wolves did, and surely no opponent will be as willing to help out as Dawson.
But when the attack are misfiring, as Everton’s were in their four-game goalless run that only ended this week, being able to lean on set-pieces is unquestionably beneficial.
In open play this season, Everton have scored only six goals from 10.4 xG, an underperformance of -4.4, which is the third worst in the Premier League behind Crystal Palace (-7.1) and Manchester United (-5.3). Making up for some of that deficit at set-pieces – or by any means, for that matter – is a positive.
Everton xg at set-pieces
Everton xg in open play
Add in own goals and Everton have eight goals from 4.6 xG at set-pieces, compared to six goals from 10.4 xG in open play.
First-choice centre-forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not a natural goalscorer, consistently underperforming compared to his xG. He has done so to a greater extent than any other Premier League player this season (-2.4).
dominic calvert-lewin xg map
Optimists at Everton might hope that he will catch up to his xG eventually, while others may point to the key role he played in both Dawson own goals on Wednesday night. While he wasn’t credited with a goal for either, there’s no doubt neither goal goes in without the pressure he put on the Wolves defender.
Those contributions will only help him as the season goes on, and will help breed some confidence for him in the final third. A fit and firing Calvert-Lewin will only help them when it comes to their so far underwhelming output in open play.
And right now, with points and goals at a premium and such a tough run of games coming up, Everton can’t afford to be too picky. Arsenal fans rejoiced in the two corner goals that earned them a 2-0 win over Man Utd on Wednesday when the team didn’t play at anything like their best, and the Wolves game should be viewed similarly by Everton. The beauty of being great at set-pieces is that you can win games without playing well. And that means it’s easier to put an end to a poor run.
After the Wolves win, the table is looking far more pleasant for Everton, but with five of the top six up next, there is a distinct possibility that they’ll be closer to the relegation zone in five games’ time – the halfway point of 2024-25.
It may be at that stage, when everyone has played everyone once, that we are better able to assess each team’s league position. Everton will have to work extremely hard to make sure they are looking up rather than down at the 19-game mark.
Opta Stats Hub Premier League
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