Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight ahead of the weekend card.
Everton vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
Are Everton dangerous outsiders here? This one feels like a free hit for them after their important win over Wolves that eases the pressure before a ghastly run of fixtures that includes Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City after this one against the title favourites.
That Wolves win was the first time Everton had scored three or more goals in a Premier League game for 42 matches - in that period they have averaged less than a goal a game with just 0.95 goals scored per 90.
The last eight Merseyside derbies have copped for punters backing the under 2.5 goals line and this feels like another opportunity to back it at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Liverpool have had a rough and intense schedule of late - something which affected their dogged but below-par performance at Newcastle. They may not be at their free-flowing best here with a low-scoring away win a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Aston Villa vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Goals, goals, goals is once again starting to be the theme of the Premier League season so when a game has all the ingredients for a goal-fest punters should be acting accordingly to back the over lines.
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ASTON VILLA AND BRENTFORD HIGHLIGHTS.
Highlights from the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brentford
In the 30 Premier League games since the recent international break, the goals per game average stands at 3.39 with 14 of those games seeing over 3.5 goals land. Villa and Southampton have been responsible for four of those matches and are bringing a very healthy total match goal average to the table this season anyway. The over 3.5 goals line looks of interest in this one at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
Brentford vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When on song, Alexander Isak is probably the most complete Premier League striker, isn't he?
Alexander Isak celebrates giving Newcastle the lead
Image: Alexander Isak is 9/2 to score first with Sky Bet
Yes, Erling Haaland is the most ruthless goalscorer but Isak's pace, mobility, guile and finishing ability is something that could take Newcastle to some special places if he can remain consistent. The Swede was outstanding against Liverpool, giving Virgil van Dijk the runaround for large parts - something that not many strikers have done this season.
If Newcastle and Isak can match the intensity and bite on show in that amazing 3-3 draw with Liverpool, then Brentford won't see which way they went and that explains why Eddie Howe's team are favourites at 13/10. But it's hard to predict which version of them will show up.
Isak has scored in both his appearances against Brentford though and only Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer have averaged more goals per game than Isak's haul of 0.56 since he arrived at Newcastle. He's the bet here to score first at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester City looked more like themselves in the final third during their 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest but something is still amiss out of possession. Forest caused them big problems in transition and the lack of legs in midfield is still going to be an issue for Pep Guardiola, who was fortunate Chris Wood missed a big chance at 1-0 when through on goal.
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Man City vs Forest highlights
Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester City and Nottingham Forest
And Palace have the pace and power in attack, plus a very smart manager in Oliver Glasner to cause problems. I'll be stunned if they don't adopt the same approach as they did at Aston Villa where they played very directly and got the ball forward quickly to Ismaila Sarr, who revelled playing on the counter and got himself a goal. He's a nice price with Sky Bet at 7/2 to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 |JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Ismaila Sarr to score (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Being lucky is a key part of life - and Ruud van Nistelrooy is getting his fair share of it. Not only has he landed himself a Premier League job by being at the right place at the right time, but he also somehow managed to win a game of football by two goals despite losing the shot count 8-31 and expected goals battle 1.67-3.10. The thing with luck, is it does run out eventually as I'm struggling to see anything but a Brighton victory if the Leicester we've seen all season show up here.
The Foxes have shipped 18.14 shots per game in the Premier League - the most of any team as their defence has been overworked. Double up Brighton to win and for them to have 16 or more shots at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Man Utd vs Nottingham Forest
I'm very keen on Manchester United games being low-scoring affairs while Ruben Amorim treats games like trials. It's a very bold move from him to keep chopping and changing his players in a world where results are everything, especially at a club like Manchester United.
It's difficult to build patterns of play and consistency in forward areas when constantly refreshing the side. Getting a team to score goals is much harder than sorting the defence out.
We know Nottingham Forest are going to play a very defensive type of game under Nuno Espirito Santo, who likes to keep things tight. This calendar year only Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City have a better expected goals process than Forest, offering up just 1.25 worth of expected goals per 90. I can see them being a tough nut for this United team to crack. The under 2.5 goals line at Evens looks a play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 |JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham vs Arsenal
When the schedule becomes as intense as it is now, shock results happen.
This looks the candidate for such a scenario on Super Sunday, where Arsenal are easily swerved for many reasons at 8/15 with Sky Bet. Looking back over the past few seasons at this time of year when a weekend fixture follows a midweek game, the Gunners have suffered defeats to Everton twice, were beaten at Aston Villa and drew 1-1 with Southampton.
And Fulham are a serious team who are having a fine season under Marco Silva.
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They've won the expected goals battle in 13 of their last 15 matches, including against Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa. This shows us Fulham are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. That makes them look a huge price on the draw no bet with Sky Bet at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Ipswich vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm
An Ipswich centre-back is going to score soon - and I want to be on him when he does. Kieran McKenna has tried to make Ipswich more of a threat from set pieces with the signings of Dara O'Shea and Jacob Greaves - two very dangerous centre-backs when it comes to attacking set pieces.
It's showing signs of working as Town's centre-backs have had 24 shots between them to an expected goals figure of 1.89 this season. With the wand of Leif Davis' left foot delivering the goods, one is coming.
Both O'Shea and Greaves are 14/1 to score anytime with Sky Bet - a couple of longshots to seriously consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Whether or not Chelsea are in this title race, there is no hiding from the fact they've won 13 of their last 19 Premier League games. This looks a brilliant time to play Tottenham too based on the schedule making life tough for Ange Postecoglou, who is under pressure now.
A key part of a manager now when managing the big clubs is rotating their squad to hopefully avoid injuries - some do it better than others. And Spurs are a team that picks up injuries and feels fatigue more than others.
This will be their fifth game in 15 days - it's been an intense run too against Man City, Roma, Fulham and Bournemouth.
Chelsea look one of the best bets of the weekend for the away win at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Chelsea to beat Tottenham (5/4 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Wolves, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
West Ham vs Wolves
This is going to be hard sell this bet - but I really like the under 2.5 goals line at 5/4 with Sky Bet - that is despite these two teams being horrendous defensively. Wolves have conceded 2.19 goals per game this calendar year and West Ham have shipped 2.15.
Of ever-present Premier League teams during that time we are dealing with the worst two defences.
However, Gary O'Neil said after that Everton defeat: "I have to find a way to give the group a better chance on Monday night."
He was speaking about Wolves being unable to do the basics at Everton - all four goals came from set pieces. So, reading between the lines, he's basically going to go 11 men behind the ball at the London Stadium and engage low-block mode in order to frustrate the Hammers who won't be getting any sympathy from a disgruntled fanbase.
It could be a tough watch but that's absolutely fine if we're profiting from a low-scoring snooze-fest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Jones Knows' best bets...
Jones Knows' Profit & Loss record 24/25
|---|---|---|---|
||Best Bet singles (1 unit)|Best Bet multiples|Total P+L|
|Matchday One|-2.10|-1|-3.10|
|Matchday Two|+1|-1|-3.10|
|Matchday Three|-3.00|-1|-7.10|
|Matchday Four|+3.90|+11|+7.80|
|Matchday Five|-2|-1|+4.80|
|Matchday Six|-1|-1|+2.80|
|Matchday Seven|0|-1|+1.80|
|Matchday Eight|-3|0|-2.80|
|Matchday Nine|+1|0|-1.80|
|Matchday 10|+2.38|-1|-0.42|
|Matchday 11|+1.4|+5|+5.98|
|Matchday 12|0|-1|+4.98|
|Matchday 13|-2|-0.5|+2.48|
|Matchday 14|0|-1|+1.48|