Liverpool are heavily fancied by the Opta supercomputer to claim three points in the Premier League on Saturday, though Everton triumphed the last time these Merseyside rivals met. Look ahead to the game with our Everton vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Everton vs Liverpool: The Key Insights
The Opta Supercomputer rates Liverpool as the clear favourites with a 63.6% win probability to Everton’s 15.5%.
Only Steven Gerrard (9) boasts more goals in Premier League Merseyside derbies than Mohamed Salah’s tally of seven.
No fixture in the Premier League has ever produced more red cards (23) than games between Everton and Liverpool.
Arne Slot will be hoping to emulate the great Kenny Dalglish when Liverpool visit rivals Everton for the final Merseyside derby to be played at Goodison Park on Saturday.
The Dutchman will experience the cauldron of noise that greets every derby between two of English football’s most prestigious teams for the first time when his Premier League leaders make the short hop across Stanley Park.
Only one Reds boss has ever won their maiden league meeting with Everton when the match has come away from home, with Dalglish celebrating a 3-2 triumph way back in September 1985.
In news that will shock precisely no one, Mohamed Salah is likely to be a key weapon for the visitors. The Egyptian superstar has scored seven Premier League goals against the Toffees, a tally bettered by only Steven Gerrard (9) in Premier League Merseyside derbies.
Salah scored and assisted in the dramatic 3-3 draw against Newcastle United on Wednesday and has now got at least one goal and one assist in 37 Premier League matches. That represents the most of any player in history, while he has now scored in seven straight league games. He has never netted in eight consecutive Premier League fixtures, with Daniel Sturridge the only player to have done so for Liverpool, doing so in 2013-14.
Any Reds fans looking for good omens need look no further than the fact they are unbeaten in all eight of their Premier League fixtures kicking off in the Saturday lunchtime slot (12:30pm) dating back to the start of last season (W6, D2) a run that included a 2-0 win over their fierce rivals. Everton, by contrast, have failed to win their past six (D2, L4) conceding exactly two goals in each of those games.
Moreover, Sean Dyche – who saw his side hammer Wolves 4-0 in midweek – has lost 12 Premier League games against the Reds (W3 D2), only losing more to Manchester City (14) and Arsenal (13). On the flip side, if he wins this one, he’ll have more wins against Liverpool (2) than the previous seven Everton managers combined (Roberto Martínez, Ronald Koeman, Sam Allardyce, Marco Silva, Carlo Ancelotti, Rafa Benítez and Frank Lampard).
The Toffees have a poor record against teams starting the day top of the table, winning just four of 47 such games in the competition (D9, L34). Only Tottenham (35) have lost more matches against table-topping teams than Everton.
Expect fireworks in this fixture, with no game seeing more red cards (23) in Premier League history than the Merseyside derby. It also has the most 0-0 draws (12), while no side has scored more 90th-minute winners against an opponent in the Premier League than Liverpool have against Everton (5).
Timothy Iroegbunam, James Garner, and Youssef Chermiti remain out of this one for Everton. Liverpool are without the suspended Alexis Mac Allister, while Ibrahima Konaté, Kostas Tsimikas and Conor Bradley are all injured. Goalkeeper Alisson and forward Diogo Jota remain huge doubts, as does Federico Chiesa who played for the Reds’ under-21s in midweek.
More Pre-Match Reading
Everton vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target when Everton defeated Liverpool 2-0 in last season’s corresponding fixture in April.
Everton 2-0 Liverpool Stats 2023-24
You have to go back to the 1984-85 season to find the last time the Toffees won consecutive league Merseyside derbies.
Liverpool’s loss in that fixture brought an end to a run of 12 away games unbeaten in the Premier League against Everton (W3 D9).
The Reds have not suffered defeats on consecutive visits to Goodison Park since suffering a run of three between 1992 and 1994.
Everton vs Liverpool Prediction
The table-topping Reds are overwhelming favourites with the supercomputer to get one over their rivals, holding a 63.6% chance of victory out of the 10,000 simulations conducted.
Everton might have thumped Wolves in midweek but they hold just a 15.5% win probability in this fixture, with the draw occurring on 20.9% of occasions.
In regards to the season on the whole, Liverpool hold a seven-point buffer at the top of the table and have an 78.5% chance of lifting the title come the end of the season.
The Toffees now have a five-point cushion to the relegation zone and are most likely to place 16th in the final standings (23.8%) according to the supercomputer.
Everton vs Liverpool Prediction Opta Supercomputer
Everton vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Everton predicted lineup vs Liverpool
Liverpool predicted lineup vs Everton
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Opta Stats Hub Premier League
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