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Chelsea Dominating, Man City Already Chasing & Brighton Surprising: The WSL 2024-25 Story So Far

Chelsea are still perfect as the Women’s Super League season resumes on Sunday, with Manchester City, Arsenal and Brighton among the chasing pack. Here, we run through the key stories of the 2024-25 WSL season so far.

We are now more than a third of the way through the 2024-25 Women’s Super League season, with the competition resuming this week following the international break.

All 12 teams are scheduled to play in a super Sunday card of fixtures that includes leaders Chelsea facing surprise package Brighton & Hove Albion, while Manchester United take on rivals Liverpool.

With eight matches played by every team so far, it appears a good time to dive into how things are shaping up and analyse how the rest of the campaign could pan out.

Who is tipped by the Opta supercomputer to lift the WSL trophy, who is most likely to face the drop and which players lead the Golden Boot race? Let’s get stuck in.

Invincibles? Chelsea Make Flawless Start

If there were any doubts about the transition from Emma Hayes to Sonia Bompastor at Chelsea, those early fears have already been emphatically laid to rest.

Bompastor has won all 12 of her matches in charge of Chelsea in all competitions so far, making the most successful start by a WSL manager in their maiden season.

She is the first ever manager to win their first eight games in charge of a team in the WSL and will be confident of making it nine in a row against Brighton.

Chelsea are just the second team (after Arsenal – first nine in 2018-19) to win their first eight games of a WSL campaign. Bompastor’s side have been ruthless, with the Blues having already scored 26 goals in the league – an average of 3.25 per match and 10 more than second-best Manchester City (16).

They have also had 321 touches in the opponent’s box (nine more than any other team), and 138 shots (five more than any other side), while conceding just three goals and keeping six clean sheets.

Guru Reiten has been the standout Chelsea star this term and is having a stellar season. Only Man City’s Khadija Shaw (seven) has scored more goals in the WSL this term than Reiten (six).

Guro Reiten goals

Reiten made her 100th WSL appearance last time out in a 1-0 win over Man Utd, marking the occasion with the only goal of the game from the penalty spot. She has recorded 67 goal contributions in the competition (35 goals, 32 assists).

Reiten has also been Chelsea’s most creative player, having crafted 17 chances – the third-highest total in the league behind Lauren Hemp (26) and Katie McCabe (21).

No player in Chelsea’s squad has had more shots than Reiten (21), who has a shooting accuracy (excluding blocks) of 50%.

The winger’s versatility has been key to Bompastor finding the best combination for her starting lineup. Mayra Ramírez, Johanna Rytting Kaneryd and Aggie Beever-Jones have all scored three league goals each for the Blues this season. Ramírez and Rytting Kaneryd are two of six players on five goal contributions in the WSL.

Chelsea were tipped for WSL glory at the start of the season and are now even bigger favourites to win the title according to the Opta supercomputer, which hands them a massive 93.4% chance of retaining the crown. That is up from 59.0% at the start of the season.

WSL predictor 5 Dec 2024

For many, this Chelsea team is reminiscent of Vic Akers’ legendary Arsenal side, which delivered the quadruple in 2006-07 and went an incredible 108 league games undefeated between 2003 and 2009.

Whether Chelsea can join them in the history books by completing an unbeaten season remains to be seen, but Bompastor’s team have all the ingredients to do something very special this term.

The Chasing Pack

Manchester City sit second in the WSL table with 19 points, and will be demoralised to be trailing Chelsea by five points at this early stage.

City made headlines earlier this season with a landmark Champions League win against holders Barcelona, but they have also been held to a draw by Arsenal and defeated by Chelsea in the league.

Boss Gareth Taylor (71) is one win away from equalling Nick Cushing (72) for the second-most wins by a manager in WSL history; only Joe Montemurro (76%) has a better win rate in the competition than the City boss’ 74% among those to take charge of 10 or more matches.

Taylor will be desperate to further cement his legacy with the WSL title, but City are already in danger of being cut adrift.

Lauren Hemp’s recent injury is a major blow to their hopes. She has averaged 1.1 goal contributions per 90 this term in the WSL. Hemp has scored twice, providing five assists – a league-high figure. She has also created 26 chances, five more than any other player in the league (ahead of McCabe – 21).

Man City have the highest xG (17.3) in the WSL, though have slightly underperformed, netting 16 times from 133 shots. A failure to match Chelsea’s ruthlessness in front of goal cost them the title last season, and they’re also behind the Blues’ pace this term.

Man City's expected goals

Arsenal, meanwhile, experienced their worst-ever start to a WSL season, not getting a win on the board until Matchday 5 when they beat West Ham 2-0. The Gunners’ poor start led to Jonas Eidevall leaving the club.

Since Eidevall departed in mid-October, Arsenal have won three of their four WSL matches and scored 11 goals, trailing only Chelsea (16) in that period, while their 8.2 xG in that timeframe is the third-highest in the competition.

They have as many victories since Eidevall left as they managed in their final seven games under him (three wins, three draws, one loss).

Interim boss Renée Slegers has turned things around and Arsenal have had 63 shots under her – the second-highest in the WSL in that span – and registered a 17.5% conversion rate. Defensively, they have only given up opportunities worth 2.2 xG since the change of coach, keeping three clean sheets.

Man City are still deemed Chelsea’s likeliest challengers for the title, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 6.2% chance of topping the pile, but that’s down significantly from their 23.2% probability in pre-season.

Arsenal’s hopes are now at a mere 0.4%, whereas they won the league in 16.0% of the pre-season simulations run by our predictive model.

Brighton the Surprise Package

The surprise name among the chasing pack is Brighton, who – perhaps aside from Bompastor’s flying start at Chelsea – have been the most impressive story of the campaign to date.

They were tipped to be relegated ahead of the season, with the supercomputer making them the favourites to go down (26.6%) – yet they now sit third and have a 52.7% probability of finishing in the top five, though our model hands them only a 0.2% chance of placing in the top three.

Coach Dario Vidosic joined from Melbourne City ahead of the campaign and has been a revelation, with some canny work in the transfer market paying off for the Seagulls.

Experienced WSL campaigners Fran Kirby and Nikita Parris have both been excellent since joining. Kirby recently surpassed 100 goal contributions in the WSL, and the former Chelsea star has been involved in a team-leading 28 open-play shot-ending sequences this term.

Fran Kirby has shone for Brighton

Parris has scored three league goals for Brighton and is just four goal contributions from reaching a century.

Kiko Seike is Brighton’s leading scorer, with her four goals coming from just 1.4 xG, showing the high level of her finishing this term. Indeed, of players to score at least twice in the WSL this season, only Tottenham’s Eveliina Summanen (50%) has a better shot conversion rate than Seike (36.4%).

The Seagulls, however, will resume their campaign at Chelsea on Sunday in their toughest test yet. The Opta supercomputer gives them little hope of getting something out of the game with their win probability at 3.1%, with Chelsea overwhelming favourites with a 90.8% likelihood of victory.

The Battle for Survival

It has been a tough start for new kids on the block Crystal Palace, who sit bottom on five points in their maiden WSL season.

However, they – and any other team in the bottom half – could quite quickly turn things around, as there are only four points between them in 12th and Liverpool in 6th.

Palace have struggled defensively and have the highest xGA figure in the WSL (16.7), though their actual goals conceded stands at 20, 3.3 more than anticipated based on the quality of shots they have faced. That suggests Palace have improvements to make defensively, but also that they have been unfortunate to face some ruthless opponents.

The Eagles have also struggled to get control of their games, seeing just 39.1% of the ball on average – lower than any other team.

At the other end of the pitch, 9th-placed Everton have been one of the WSL’s worst performers, netting just three times, with one of those being a penalty and another being an own goal.

Everton's shot locations in 2024-25

Leicester City, in 10th, have netted just two goals, with their 4.4 xG also a league-low figure. Leicester and Everton have had the fewest touches in the opponents’ box, too (113 for the former, 123 for the latter). Both can expect to struggle if they cannot find a way of carving out more chances.

Seventh-placed Tottenham have conceded the most goals (21), though they are also the fifth-highest scorers with 12 goals, so they may feel they have the attacking quality to steer clear of danger.

Tottenham have struggled in defence

The supercomputer currently makes Leicester favourites for the drop, with the Foxes propping up the table in 34.4% of season simulations, with Palace going down in 28.3%.

West Ham – who have continued their struggles from last season and face Palace in a huge six-pointer on Sunday – go down in 19.4% of scenarios, with Everton doing so in 8.8%, Aston Villa in 7% and Tottenham in just 1.6%.

Shaw leads Golden Boot race

Khadija Shaw has picked up where she left off last season, leading the way at the top of the scoring charts (7) ahead of Reiten (6).

Reiten has scored five non-penalty goals from a non-penalty xG of +2.4. That 2.6 gap between non-penalty xG and non-penalty goals is the joint-largest positive differential recorded by any player in the WSL this season, along with Brighton’s Seike.

Shaw, meanwhile, has the fourth-highest non-penalty xG overperformance (+1.5) in the division. Arsenal’s in-form Frida Maanum has registered a +2.2 overperformance.

City star Shaw is a high-volume shooter and has had 35 shots, at least 10 more than any other player in the competition, though she has only been accurate with 48.3% of those (17).

Khadija Shaw

With eight to her name, Shaw leads the way for goal contributions, too, with teammate Hemp (seven – five assists, two goals) and Chelsea’s Reiten (six – all goals) hot on her heels. Seike, Kirby, Ramirez, Rytting Kaneryd, Maanum and Rachel Daly are all on five goal contributions each.

Shaw is netting every 89 minutes, while Reiten averages a goal every 112. Seike’s minutes-per-goal ratio this term is 104, and among players to score at least three times in the WSL this season, Chelsea’s Beever-Jones – who has only started twice – is scoring at the best rate after Shaw, averaging a goal every 95 minutes.

Ones to Watch

Some hidden gems have already shone in the WSL this season and the data highlights multiple players who might be worthy of further attention.

Spurs’ Ashleigh Neville has won 27 tackles, more than any other player, while she also leads the competition for interceptions (21), ahead of Lucy Bronze and Ruby Mace (both 19).

Manchester United’s Grace Clinton, meanwhile, is having a breakout season after returning from a loan spell with Spurs. She has contested (128) and won (61) the most duels in the competition. Clinton also made an impact on the international stage during the latest hiatus, netting England’s winner against Euro 2025 hosts Switzerland.

United also have a new star between the sticks following Mary Earps’ move to Paris Saint-Germain. According to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model, Phallon Tullis-Joyce has been the best goalkeeper in the WSL when it comes to goals prevented (5.9).

There are also a few new names impressing for lesser-fancied teams. Leicester’s 19-year-old winger Shana Chossenotte – signed from Reims in August – has created five chances following carries this term, with only Hemp (12), Rytting Kaneryd and Mariona Caldentey (both 6) recording more.

Liverpool, meanwhile, brought in 20-year-old Canada international Olivia Smith ahead of the campaign and she has recorded a league-high 11 shots following carries.

Olivia Smith

Of all players to attempt at least 20 dribbles this campaign, meanwhile, the Reds winger has the best dribble success rate at 66.7%.

Even if Chelsea are threatening to run away with the title, there are plenty of interesting storylines to follow across the division, and plenty of players hoping to turn heads as the 2024-25 WSL season progresses.

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