Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:
Aston Villa 2.59 Southampton 0.39 (1-0)
Brentford 1.75 v Newcastle 1.96 (4-2)
Crystal Palace 1.21 v Man City 1.58 (2-2)
Man U 1.47 Forest 0.65 (2-3)
As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.
Villa clearly battered bottom club Southampton but almost let them off the hook, in terms of not turning that domination into the number of goals it deserved.
The Palace v Man City match seeing very similar Expected Goals stats and a 2-2 draw not a surprise when looking at what actually happened in the game.
Whilst at Old Trafford, some hilariously poor defending and goalkeeping (if you haven’t seen it yet, the one Onana let in from Gibbs-White is something special!) from Man U, helped gift Forest three goals, despite such a low 0.65 Expected Goals stat. Credit also to Forest for their ruthlessness on the day despite not many clear chances at all.
Which brings us to Newcastle United.
United away from home and with a higher Expected Goals stat than Brentford, indeed of the eight PL teams playing on Saturday, only Villa a higher stat. Yet of course Newcastle lost, badly by the end.
With any single underlying stat, you also have to factor in all of the other underlying stats, plus most importantly, what you saw with your own eyes.
If you look (see below) at the other underlying stats from Saturday’s game, Newcastle United outperformed Brentford in all but one. Newcastle had more shots (16 v 11), more possession (56% v 44%), more corners (4 v 3), more touches by players in the opposition box (40 v 26).
The only underlying stat that Newcastle United failed on? That was efforts on target, with Brentford 8 v 3 in terms of how it played out.
When you combine all of these things together, including/especially what we saw with our own eyes, Newcastle United had more than enough of everything to have won this game in the first half, but didn’t turn that superiority and chances into (enough) goals.
When combined with gifting possession in dangerous areas and some really poor moments in terms of defending, you then have a problem. Especially when you are facing the ruthlessness that Brentford are showing in front of goal this season.
At home this season, Brentford have won nine and drawn one of their ten matches (all competitions) and scored 30 goals. In the Premier League alone they have scored 26 goals in eight home PL matches, nine more goals at home than any other PL team and twice as many as Liverpool’s 13 at Anfield.
This was perfectly summed up in the first half, when despite Newcastle far more threatening and the better team, Brentford went into the break with the score 2-2, thanks to two brilliant strikes from Wissa and Mbeumo.
On this Sunday morning, just look at this BBC Sport table of the top goalscorers this season in the Premier League:
Premier League Top Scorers
I think a lot of you will be stunned by the fact that only three players have scored more PL goals this season than the two Brentford stars.
All the hype that is given to the likes of Palmer and Jackson at Chelsea, yet the Brentford duo are outscoring them, BUT zero publicity surrounding them. Well certainly in terms of comparison with what it should be.
The Chelsea duo have scored 17 goals from 80 chances.
The Brentford pair have scored 18 goals from 48 chances.
That is outrageous!
Compare it to Haaland 13 goals from 69 chances, or even Salah 13 from 47.
Newcastle United were up against some top quality attacking attacking players on Saturday and they punished United for their mistakes.
Brentford 4 Newcastle 2 – Saturday 7 December 3pm
(Stats via BBC Sport)
Goals:
Newcastle United :
Isak 11, Barnes 32
Brentford:
Mbeumo 8, Wissa 28, Collins 56. Schade 90
(Half-time stats in brackets)
Possession was Newcastle 56% (53%) Brentford 44% (47%)
Total shots were Newcastle 16 (9) Brentford 11 (4)
Shots on target were Newcastle 3 (2) Brentford 8 (3)
Corners were Newcastle 4 (2) Brentford 3 (1)
Touches in the box Newcastle 40 (19) Brentford 26 (12)
Newcastle team v Brentford:
Pope, Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall (Trippier 83), Joelinton (Tonali 60), Bruno, Longstaff (Wilson 73), Barnes (Almiron 74), Isak, Jacob Murphy (Gordon 60)
Unused Subs:
Dubravka, Targett, Osula, Kelly
(3 Positives and 3 Negatives to take from Brentford 4 Newcastle 2 – Read HERE)
(Brentford 4 Newcastle 2 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)
(The wrong kind of six goal thriller this time – Brentford 4 Newcastle 2 – Read HERE)
Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:
Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)
Wednesday 18 December – Newcastle v Brentford (7.45pm) Sky Sports+ (Carabao Cup)
Saturday 21 December – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)
Thursday 26 December – Newcastle v Villa (3pm) Amazon
Monday 30 December – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 4 January – Tottenham v Newcastle (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Sunday 12 January – Newcastle v Bromley (3pm) BBC iPlayer (FA Cup)
Wednesday 15 January – Newcastle v Wolves (7.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 18 January – Newcastle v Bournemouth (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 25 January – Southampton v Newcastle (3pm)