6:30P. 12-10. 66. FanDuel Sports Network Florida. Dec. 8, 2024. 38. Magic by 1 (O/U 212.5). Magic Suns Matchup 12.08.24. 16-9
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Season Series:Magic 109, Suns 99 in Phoenix on Nov. 18; Tonight in Orlando
|Pace|Off. Rtg.|Def. Rtg.|eFG%|O.Reb.%|TO%|FTR|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Phoenix|98.7|113.4|114.3|55.6|25.8|14.0|27.3|
|Orlando|97.5|110.3|105.5|52.1|30.0|15.5|27.9|
Our Record: 17-8/9-16 ATS
The news hit the Orlando Magic news stream like a ton of bricks Saturday afternoon.
Franz Wagner is out indefinitely with a torn right oblique, the same injury as Paolo Banchero.
It felt like it could not be real. It had to be a joke that the Magic's two young stars each suffered the same rare (for basketball) injury.
Everyone is trying to find answers. And the Magic's first media availability before Sunday's game will answer at least some of those questions for fans and the media on how this happened and how the team plans to move forward.
But there is this reality too: The Orlando Magic still have to play a game Sunday against the Phoenix Suns. They still have to take the floor and find a way to win.
It will undoubtedly be tough. Losing a star always is. And the Magic do not have much in the way of certainty.
But everyone for Orlando plays better inside the Kia Center. And the Magic are still unbeaten at home. They have that working for them and they have to hope players will step up with the energy of the home crowd lifting them up.
They have one more thing working for them too.
Kevin Durant is out with a sprained ankle. And the Phoenix Suns are playing a strange back-to-back, playing at Miami against the Miami Heat at 8 p.m. on Saturday before turning around to play a 6:30 p.m. game in Orlando.
Will fatigue matter? Will that give the Magic enough wiggle room to find themselves again? Is it too much of a roll of a dice to find their way?
Prediction. 105. 66. Magic Suns Prediction 12.08.24. 99. 38
3. Life without the stars
The Phoenix Suns will not have much sympathy for the Orlando Magic playing without their star player. The Magic have been able to survive and thrive since Paolo Banchero's torn oblique. The Suns have struggled with Kevin Durant out of the lineup.
Phoenix is 1-8 without Durant in the lineup, including the loss to Orlando in November. The Suns have been unable to replace his 25.8 points per game and 53.6 percent shooting. The Suns' lack of depth and size are apparent when Durant is out of the game.
Phoenix overall has a -5.4 net rating with Durant off the floor. The issue is the lack of size. The Suns have a 117.5 defensive rating with Durant off the floor. Teams have been able to score on the Suns when he is not on the floor and when he is out.
The question is whether the Magic can score. The Magic especially have struggled with Franz Wagner off the floor. Especially on offense.
Orlando has a team-worst 100.9 offensive rating with Franz Wagner off the floor (the next player is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at 106.6). Since Paolo Banchero's injury, the Magic have a 99.1 offensive rating with Wagner off the floor.
Orlando really struggles to score when Wagner is off the floor. And that is the biggest thing the Magic will have to figure out in the next few weeks.
2. Size and Rebounding
What makes the Orlando Magic unique is their size and ball-handling with that size. They throw arms and length at you defensively. And they put defenders in positions they are uncomfortable with because of the size of their main ball-handlers. If the Magic do not have a matchup advantage, they can find it.
That advantage is thrown completely out the window with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner out—something that has not happened for the Magic since the end of the 2023 season when they packed it in after they were eliminated from the postseason.
Orlando will have to find a way to create an identity on its own. A new identity for this team with these two stars out.
The easy place is to take a page from the Heart & Hustle team and just outwork everyone and hound and harass them on defense. The Magic are going to have to win every point on the margin.
And that has the focus squarely on rebounding and the work that Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter and everyone else can do on the glass.
The Magic for the season rank third in the league with a 73.3 percent defensive rebound rate. But they are coming off two poor rebounding games against the Philadelphia 76ers. And the Orlando Magic struggled mightily rebounding the ball against the Phoenix Suns in their first meeting -- giving up 20 second-chance points on 16 offensive rebounds, including five from Mason Plumlee.
The Magic cannot lose this battle. And they must find a way to steal points on the offensive glass too. That will be difficult against a Suns team that is very good at rebounding despite their lack of size outside of Jusuf Nurkic.
1. Home cooking
If there is one thing working in the Orlando Magic's favor for this game it is they are back at the Kia Center. And the Magic are just a different team at home, where they are 9-0 through the first 25 games of the season (the fewest home games played in the league so far).
Overall, Orlando has a 117.0 offensive rating at home. That is the seventh-best home offensive rating. That is compared to a 106.5 offensive rating on the road. They are a different offensive team at home.
The Magic shoot 33.6 percent from three at home compared to 29.5 percent on the road. That little difference can have huge consequences in close games.
Most teams play better at home, but usually not this much better. It is not usually this night and day. The energy from the home crowd is meaningful.
And, of course, the Magic had Franz Wagner carrying the team through a lot of those games. They need someone like Jalen Suggs to step up now.
When Paolo Banchero got hurt, the Magic were just starting a five-game road trip. It was easy to see the team was seeking energy and trying to find their way without the comforts of home. The Magic will hit the road again Tuesday for their NBA Cup quarterfinal and possibly Las Vegas should they win or to Atlanta, but the Magic will have a lot of time to figure things out at Kia Center.
And it will be easier to find wins at home than on the road.