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In A Nutshell
A study of Chicagoans indicates that nearly one third of urban residents have carried a concealed firearm by age 40, with distinct patterns emerging between those who begin carrying as teenagers versus adults. Teen carriers often stop in adulthood, while adult carriers tend to continue the practice.
Exposure to gun violence doubles the likelihood of teenagers carrying guns, but has little effect on adults’ decisions to carry. Adult carrying appears more connected to general perceptions about safety and societal stability.
The COVID-19 pandemic marked a significant shift in gun-carrying behavior, with nearly a quarter of current carriers being new to the practice during 2020-2021, suggesting that societal instability can rapidly change gun-carrying patterns.
CAMBRIDGE, United Kingdom — “Carrying a concealed firearm is now a common event in the life course for Americans,” says Dr. Charles Lanfear from the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Criminology. This stark observation emerges from worrisome research that tracked gun carrying patterns across 25 years in Chicago, revealing that nearly one-third of people carry a concealed firearm by age 40.
The comprehensive study, published in Science Advances, challenges many assumptions about who carries guns and why, painting a complex picture of America’s relationship with firearms. By following over 3,400 Chicago residents from childhood through middle age, researchers uncovered distinct patterns in how different generations approach gun carrying, with surprising implications for public safety and policy.
While the study focused on Chicago, the researchers note that the city’s gun violence rates were similar to other major cities like Philadelphia and Dallas during the study period, suggesting these patterns might be found in urban areas across America. The study began in the mid-1990s, drawing participants from 80 of Chicago’s 343 neighborhoods across the racial and socioeconomic spectrum.
“Among adolescents, we found a strong association between either witnessing a shooting or being shot, and beginning to carry soon after,” explains Lanfear. The research shows that teenagers who witnessed or experienced gun violence were twice as likely to start carrying a gun themselves.
However, the story changes dramatically for adult carriers. “The majority of people who ever carry a concealed handgun start doing so in adulthood. For those adults, we found no link between direct exposure to gun violence and gun carrying,” Lanfear notes. This pattern suggests that adult carrying may be more connected to general perceptions of danger and doubts about police effectiveness in ensuring public safety.
The demographic patterns revealed by the research are equally striking. By age 40, nearly half (47.6%) of male participants had carried a concealed gun, compared to only 16% of females. While female gun carrying was historically uncommon, researchers noted a sharp increase among some women beginning at age 35, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Racial differences in carrying patterns revealed complex dynamics. Black individuals carried at rates more than double those of Hispanic and white individuals. However, this correlates with exposure to violence – a previous study by the same team found that Black city residents were twice as likely as white residents to witness a shooting by age 40. Interestingly, white residents, who were least likely to witness gun violence, showed the strongest tendency to begin carrying in response to exposure to such violence.
The research also uncovered intriguing patterns in the persistence of gun carrying. Only 37% of those who started carrying as adolescents were still carrying in 2021. In contrast, 85% of adult-onset carriers maintained the practice. This suggests that teenage gun carrying, often a response to immediate dangers, frequently ends as circumstances change, while adult carrying represents a more permanent lifestyle choice.
The timing of gun use also differed markedly between groups. All teenage carriers who fired or brandished their weapons did so before reaching adulthood. “We found that no one who began carrying a gun in adolescence ended up using it for the first time after the age of twenty-one,” Lanfear explains. Adult-onset carriers showed a steady rate of first usage over time, with both groups eventually reaching similar levels of gun usage – around 40% – by middle age.
The study captures significant historical changes in America’s gun landscape. When the research began in the 1990s, carrying concealed firearms was illegal in Illinois. By 2014, the state had adopted a “shall issue” policy, requiring authorities to issue gun licenses to anyone meeting basic criteria like being over 21 and passing a background check. This shift mirrors nationwide trends toward more permissive carry laws.
The COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest of 2020-2021 marked another dramatic shift, with a sharp increase in adult gun carrying. Nearly a quarter of those carrying guns during this period were new to the practice, suggesting that societal instability can rapidly reshape gun-carrying behaviors.
These findings arrive at a crucial moment in American history, as debates about gun rights and regulation continue to evolve. The research suggests that simple solutions are unlikely to address the complex motivations behind gun carrying, which vary significantly by age, circumstance, and historical context.
Paper Summary
Methodology
The study utilized data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN+), following four age cohorts of children born between 1981 and 1996. The researchers conducted interviews at multiple points over 25 years, tracking participants’ experiences with gun carrying, exposure to violence, and various social and environmental factors. The study maintained a representative sample of Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white children from 80 Chicago neighborhoods, with follow-up surveys in 2012 and 2021. The research team used sophisticated statistical methods to account for participant attrition and ensure the findings remained representative of the original population.
Key Results
The study found that by age 21, about 10.2% of participants had carried a concealed gun, increasing to 14.4% by age 30 and 31.9% by age 40. Males were significantly more likely to carry than females (47.6% vs 16.0% by age 40). Early carriers (before age 21) showed different patterns than adult carriers, with early carriers more likely to stop carrying in adulthood while adult carriers showed more persistent behavior. The study also revealed a significant increase in new carriers during the COVID-19 pandemic, with nearly a quarter of current carriers being new to the practice.
Study Limitations
The study’s Chicago focus may limit its generalizability to other regions, though the researchers note that Chicago’s gun violence rates were similar to other major U.S. cities during the study period. The research also faced challenges with participant retention over the 25-year period, though statistical methods were used to account for attrition. Additionally, the study relied on self-reported data about gun carrying and use, which could be subject to recall bias or underreporting.
Discussion & Takeaways
The research reveals a complex picture of gun carrying in America, with distinct patterns between adolescent and adult carriers. The findings suggest that different approaches may be needed to address gun carrying among different age groups, as their motivations and patterns differ significantly. The study also highlights the impact of major societal events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, on gun-carrying behavior, suggesting that broader social and political factors play a crucial role in individual decisions to carry firearms.
Funding & Disclosures
The research was supported by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, the National Institute of Justice, and the Leverhulme Trust through the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. The authors declared no competing interests, and anonymized replication data and analysis code are publicly available on Harvard Dataverse.