A deep dive into Arsenal’s season so far unveils a troubling statistic that might explain their inconsistent form in the Premier League. Despite sitting third in the table, the Gunners’ attacking efficiency in open play has been alarmingly below par. Arsenal have managed to create an open play expected goal (xG) in just one of their last eight Premier League matches. Over the entire campaign, the figure stands at a mere three out of 15 games—a stark contrast to the standards of a team vying for the title.
The Concerning Numbers
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 30: Declan Rice of Arsenal looks on during the Premier League match between West Ham United FC and Arsenal FC at London Stadium on November 30, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Arsenal currently rank 13th in the Premier League for open play xG, a metric that measures the quality of chances created without set-piece involvement. This is particularly concerning for a team renowned for their free-flowing, attacking football under Mikel Arteta. The lack of open play creativity raises questions about their tactical setup and the performances of key attacking players.
For context, open play goals are often considered the hallmark of a dominant team, as they reflect the ability to break down defenses through cohesive passing and movement. Arsenal’s reliance on set-pieces—an area where they excel with 22 goals since the start of last season—has masked their struggles in open play, but it’s clear that they are not creating enough high-quality chances in open play situations.
What’s Behind the Drop?
Several factors could be contributing to Arsenal’s struggles in open play. Firstly, the departure of Granit Xhaka two summers ago has left a creative void in midfield. While Declan Rice has excelled defensively, his role is more about shielding the backline than threading incisive passes. Similarly, Kai Havertz has yet to find his rhythm in Arteta’s system, often drifting out of games and failing to link up effectively with the front line.
LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 08: Kai Havertz of Arsenal runs with the ball under pressure from Sander Berge of Fulham during the Premier League match between Fulham FC and Arsenal FC at Craven Cottage on December 08, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
In addition, Arsenal’s wide players, including Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, have been tightly marked by opposition defenses this season. Without sufficient support from midfield or overlapping full-backs, they’ve found it harder to exploit spaces and create chances. Injuries to key players like Jurrien Timber have also disrupted Arsenal’s ability to maintain attacking fluidity from deep positions.
Can Arsenal Turn It Around?
The good news for Arsenal fans is that the team has proven resilient in other areas. Their defensive record remains solid, and their set-piece prowess continues to yield goals. However, if Arsenal want to sustain a title challenge, improving their open play creativity is non-negotiable.
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 30: Mikel Arteta, Manager of Arsenal, looks on prior to the Premier League match between West Ham United FC and Arsenal FC at London Stadium on November 30, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Mikel Arteta will need to address this issue urgently, potentially by tweaking his tactical setup or integrating more dynamic options in midfield. Players like Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira, known for their creative instincts, could provide the spark Arsenal desperately need.
Final Thoughts
While Arsenal’s position in the Premier League table suggests they are still in contention, their struggles in open play cannot be ignored. The lack of open play xG highlights a deeper problem that could derail their campaign if left unresolved. With crucial fixtures ahead, including the UEFA Champions League and a packed festive schedule, Arteta and his squad must find a way to unlock their attacking potential and recapture the fluidity that once defined their game.