[Portland Trail Blazers](https://www.blazersedge.com) guard Anfernee Simons is in the middle of his seventh season in the NBA. That would normally make him a _bona fide_ veteran, but for two asterisks. The Trail Blazers drafted him in 2018 out of IMG Academy in Florida when he was just 19 years old. He spent his first three seasons playing limited minutes, then experienced a big bump at the beginning of his sixth year when Portland traded away Damian Lillard, thrusting Simons into a new, and much more major, role. To this day the 25-year-old continues to adjust, standing at the center of a fluid, and ultimately not very successful, lineup.
Simons’ stats have suffered this season. A career 38% shooter from the three-point arc, he’s firing just 32.3% this year. Similarly, his overall field goal percentage has dropped from 43% last year—his exact career average—to 40.1% this. Pressed into more ball-handling duties, his assists are down in aggregate and per minute. He’s turning over the ball at the exact same rate: 2.9 TO’s per 36 minutes. That makes his assist-to-turnover ratio a slim 1.82, which doesn’t qualify him among the Top 100 players in the league in that category.
In short, Simons is struggling at the exact moment the door is open for him to flourish, with his team begging for someone...anyone...to take the reins and lead them.
That reality has given rise to multiple Blazer’s Edge Mailbag questions of this flavor.
> Dave,
>
> Can you see any reason to keep Ant anymore? I can’t at all. He’s a defensive weak spot and his offense has disappeared. I hate his ball hogging ways. I know that could be said of other players too but at least they bring something. Time to get on the Trade Ant bandwagon don’t you think?
>
> —Maurice
We’ve just spelled out part of the statistical nightmare. The question is why, and what does that say about Simons?
Watching him early this season has confirmed two conclusions only half-drawn in the transitions of the past few years.
First, Simons doesn’t appear to be a #1 option at this point in his career. For the first time, really (and remember he played only 46 games last season because of injury) he’s receiving attention like one. Defenses know that Simons and Jerami Grant are the key to Portland’s scoring. They’re keeping a man on Simons at all times out to the arc and closing on him most times when he drives. He’s never free on the weak side the way he was when Lillard dominated the court and he seldom gets loose on action either. He’s got quickness and craftiness on his side, but lacks the size and bankable repertoire of shots to score against that kind of defensive pressure.
Second, Simons isn’t comfortable as a distributor. He can do it. He’s probably one of the better Blazers right now in the passing department. But that’s like saying Costco brand is the best of the Christmas fruitcakes. Granted, but we’d rather have pumpkin cheesecake instead, thank you. And the Blazers are fresh out.
Unfortunately, Portland needs a #1 scorer and a facile point guard right now. That’s why Simons’ flaws are showing as strongly as his assets.
Understanding that, we can circle back to your argument that he should be traded. Maybe so! But if so, it’s not because he stinks. He didn’t lose his three-point shot and dynamic leaping ability over one summer. It’s because the roles he fills best are not the ones his team needs filled. Unless the rest of the lineup solidifies around him, leaving him in a comfortable spot, the Blazers aren’t going to get full use out of him.
If the team is to grow around him, it’ll need to be over the next two years. His contract runs out at the end of next season. It looks pretty reasonable right now at $25.9 million and $27.7 million per year, but an extension is going to cost more than that. Even with new broadcast rights money rolling in, it’s unlikely that the Blazers will want to spend north of $30 million for his current production of 16.5 points and 4.4 assists per game with defense that can charitably be termed “speculative”.
By contrast, Simons will probably look great on a team that uses him only in his natural shooting guard role, that allows him to come off screens or play the weak side with great players beside him or that hands him the ball in isolation with the second unit. Simons is the type of player who could make a borderline playoff team credible or a credible playoff team explosive. He’s not going to carry a bad team to respectability on his own at this point in his career.
If the Blazers can find a trade partner who would value Simons for those reasons, trading him wouldn’t be out of the question. Despite protests, it would make life harder for players like Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Toumani Camara, all of whom would see extra defensive pressure. But the Blazers aren’t surviving the defensive pressure they’re getting anyway. And hey, the fewer wins, the better the ping pong ball odds.
I’d stop well short of saying the Blazers should trade Simons because of frustration with him or his play. This won’t be addition by subtraction. The current team will miss him more than you think. (For one thing, they need someone to take those isolation attempts you lament. Without that kind of offensive threat unbalancing the floor, defenses key in on plays.) But without strong evidence that he’s one of the building blocks for the future, holding onto him with tight fists just because he’s the best pure-offense player on the roster doesn’t make sense.
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