HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 10: Fred VanVleet #5 of the Houston Rockets celebrates a three point ... \[+\] basket late in the second half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Toyota Center on November 10, 2023 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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The Rockets were riding high on Sunday night last week after knocking off the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, 119-116. Fred VanVleet had his best game of the season, scoring 38 points. At the time, the win brought Houston within striking distance of the West’s top seed, bringing their record to 15-6. But they then followed up with two clunkers, losing to the disappointing Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, 120-111, and then to a Golden State Warriors team playing without mainstays Steph Curry and Draymond Green, on Thursday, 99-83. The Rockets then licked their wounds on Sunday, knocking off a Los Angeles Clippers team playing without former Rocket James Harden, 117-106.
They’ll have a rematch against the Warriors on Wednesday night at Toyota Center before hosting the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday. Star forward Zion Williamson remains unavailable with no timetable for his return.
The Rockets are now 16-8, third in the West behind the Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies. The West is brutal with just one loss separating the Rockets from the fifth seed Warriors who are now 14-9. The Dallas Mavericks, the defending conference champions, are just now hitting their stride, also 16-8 like the Rockets, having won seven in a row and nine of their last ten games. The Grizzlies have also won nine out of ten.
With 30% of the season in the books, the Rockets are on a 55 win pace - remarkable by any objective measure of expectations. They continue to have the league’s second ranked defense (behind just the Thunder), and have the league’s sixth best net rating. Offense remains the team’s weakness; the Rockets have just the 16th best offense in the league.
Sophomore forward Amen Thompson started in place of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet on Sunday night, perhaps giving the Rockets a glimpse of their future. As he often does, Thompson stuffed the stat sheet, scoring 22 points on 9-for-14 shooting from the floor, grabbing 8 rebounds, and dishing out 4 assists. He also added in his signature spectacular defense. Since being drafted, Thompson has looked his best as a wing. But the thought originally was that he was the franchise’s future at the point guard position, once he became ready to inherit the keys from VanVleet.
Invariably, VanVleet has been one of Houston’s most important pieces. In 785 minutes played so far this season, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions with VanVleet on the floor, fourth best amongst Houston’s regulars. He has the third highest usage on the team at 21.9%.
Rockets general manager Rafael Stone has a critical decision to make this summer with a team option on VanVleet’s contract. If the option is exercised, VanVleet will be owed $44.89 million next season. The Rockets could also look to extend VanVleet to a team friendlier deal.
The Rockets so far have little meaningful data on whether they can survive in a post-VanVleet world. Sunday night’s win over the Clippers was to some degree, a cause for optimism, if difficult financial decisions need to be made.