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How Seahawks’ playoff picture is developing after beating Cardinals | Four Downs

In the happy din of their locker room at State Farm Stadium after Sunday's 30-18 win over the Arizona Cardinals, anything felt possible for the Seahawks.

Music blared, players joked and what could be called good vibes were had.

"We like to have fun, especially after wins," quarterback Geno Smith said. "So we have to keep it going."

If they do, what will it mean to their playoff hopes?

Let's answer that question and more in this week's Four Downs with Seahawks beat reporter Bob Condotta.

What does Seahawks' playoff situation look like now?

A major pregame theme Sunday was the high stakes of the game for both team's playoff hopes.

The win gave the Seahawks a one-game lead on the Rams in the NFC West and two on Arizona (against whom they own the tiebreakers) and the 49ers.

Via The New York Times' The Upshot's analytic models, the Seahawks have a 61% chance to make the playoffs. That includes a 59% chance to win the division, 2% to take the wildcard.

That may seem low considering the Seahawks have the same record as the team that has the last wild card spot - Washington at 8-5.

The Commanders, who had a bye Sunday, have a 91% chance to make the playoffs and 89% to get a wild card spot, and have better odds than the Seahawks because of a better conference record at 5-3 to the Seahawks' 4-4, which would be the first tiebreaker since they don't play this season.

The Commanders have an easier schedule with games at New Orleans (5-8), at home against the Eagles (11-2), at home against slumping Atlanta (6-7) and at Dallas (5-7) to close out the season.

That compares to the Seahawks' slate of home games against Green Bay (9-4) and Minnesota (11-2) and road games against the Bears (4-9) and at the Los Angeles Rams (7-6).

That means the key to make the playoffs remains winning the NFC West.

Interestingly, for the third straight week, if the season ended today the Seahawks would host the Packers in a wild-card playoff game in a matchup of the three and six seeds. The Seahawks play the Packers on Sunday at Lumen Field at 5:20 p.m.

The Seahawks know tough tests await the next two weeks, which is why coach Mike Macdonald and players also talked after Sunday's game of trying to turn the page quickly.

"That's got to be the mantra," Smith said. "(Going) 1-0 every week. That's something that you've got to develop as a team. When guys are saying we're in playoff mode, that's every single game. Similar to what coach (Former Seahawks coach Pete) Carroll used to talk about. Every game's a championship game, and if you really take that approach then when you get to the big game it won't feel different."

What is next for the NFC West?

The Seahawks' playoff hopes will change by the time they kick off against the Packers, thanks to the Rams and 49ers playing Thursday night in Santa Clara.

And for once, Seattle fans should be rooting for San Francisco since the Rams loom as the Seahawks' main threat to winning the NFC West - and the only other team in the division that controls its own destiny.

Via The Upshot, the Seahawks' playoff odds will increase to 67% with a San Francisco win, and drops the Rams to 7-7 and unable to catch Seattle on their own. A Rams win drops the Seahawks' playoff odds to 52%.

A combination of events that can happen this weekend make things almost as high leverage as the Arizona game was.

Via The Upshot, a win by the Rams and a loss by the Seahawks would drop Seattle's playoff odds to 37% as they would have the same record (8-6) in that scenario and the Rams already have a win over the Seahawks and a game on tap in January in L.A.

A combination of a 49ers win and a Seahawks' win and the their playoff odds increase to 83%.

Which is why Smith said there was a simple message to the Seahawks after the Arizona win.

"Get to the weight room," Smith said. "Get ready for next week."

Q: What was the most impressive play of Sunday's game?

A: By the eye test, and what it meant to the Seahawks, a 24-yard catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba from Smith late in the second quarter was as big of a play as any.

The Seahawks faced a third-and-10 at its own 20, leading 17-10, just moving back because of a delay penalty.

An Arizona stop there and the Cardinals could have had decent field position and time to try to tie the game before the half.

Arizona brought six rushers on the play and two were closing on Smith as he spotted Smith-Njigba just past the 30. Smith got hit as he threw and the ball fluttered low to Smith-Njigba. He could have dived to make the safe catch. Instead, he reached low, snared the ball just off the turf, quickly turned to the right and took off, gaining 24 yards.

Two plays later, Zach Charbonnet raced 51 yards for a TD and a 24-10 lead, and the Cardinals never got closer than nine the rest of the way.

"That was an amazing catch," Smith said. "(I) kind of got hit right there a little bit. Wish I could have hit him in stride. If I would've, he'd have scored on that one, but that's why he's Jaxon. That's why he's JSN. He does a great job. He's one of the better receivers in the league. He's really developing into his own right now. I have to do better for him and get him that ball so he can go score."

Asked why he didn't dive for the ball Smith-Njigba said: "I felt like I could catch it and do something with it. Honestly, I've seen that ball before. Just got to catch it, and I did that, and try to get more yards."

The play was indicative of one of the Seahawks' better performances on third down this season, converting 7 of 15 (46.7%), above the regular-season average of 38.0. The Seahawks have converted 46.2% or better in three of the last four games, a significant reason for the four-game winning streak since the bye.

Q: Speaking of Smith-Njigba, he must be moving on up the receiving leaderboard, right?

A: Yes he is. After again leading the Seahawks in receiving with 82 yards, Smith-Njigba has 911 for the season, which ranks fifth in the NFL.

The only NFL receivers with more are Minnesota's Justin Jefferson (1,170), Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase (1,142), Cleveland's Jerry Jeudy (944) and the Raiders' Brock Bowers (933).

Smith-Njigba has 69 or more yards receiving in each of his last six games and has 38 catches for 592 yards, or 98.6 per game.

When DK Metcalf set the Seahawks' team record for yards in a season with 1,303 in 2020 he averaged 81.4 yards per game.

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This story was originally published December 9, 2024, 10:56 PM.

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