Jarrett Allen has been the face of consistency for the Cleveland Cavaliers since he arrived. A constant presence on both ends who seemed impervious to ruts. Except now, Allen is falling behind individually as the Cavaliers hold the best record in the NBA at 21-4. Evan Mobley’s ascension may be the root cause.
When looking at Allen’s stats at face value you would think I’m speaking hyperbolic. He is averaging 13.4 points on 63.4% efficiency while securing 10.4 rebounds per game. This looks akin to seasons past statistically but the film provides a different narrative.
Allen simply has not looked comfortable in recent games. In his past seven outings, he has averaged 9.6 points with just six field goal attempts and 8.6 rebounds per game. Allen often has been a player who can impose his will when the Cavaliers call his number but as of late, they are not pushing that button. Allen’s usage has dipped from 17% last season to a career-low 13% this season.
The lower usage rate is not the sole reason Allen looks disconnected. While it’s simple basketball math to say more usage will lead to better stats, Allen looks more like a role player on the Cavaliers rather than a core member. Allen’s offensive aggression has been lacking but his mentality is not the sole reason he is fading out of games. Something else has emerged to take looks away from Allen: the emergence of Mobley.
Something has clicked for Mobley. Over his last seven games, Mobley is averaging 19.9 points and 9.4 rebounds. The stats aren’t telling the full story either as Mobley’s usage rate is 24.4% in the last seven games, which is a 5% increase from last season. Allen during that same span is averaging an 11.7% usage rate.
If these trends remain true, this opens up a bigger conversation about what is Allen’s role going forward and if he’s being used to his talent level. Allen has essentially become a Mitchell Robinson type of player where he can only be played in certain scenarios. Kenny Atkinson has made it a pattern of closing games with Mobley at the five while Allen is on the bench.
With the Cavaliers reaching their apex of play and looking like a title contender, it raises a good question. If you are the Cavaliers, not playing one of your best players in closing minutes due to basketball symmetry, why not move Allen for someone who can close out games? This question is not going to go away even if during Mobley’s absence Allen rebounds and plays some of his best games of the season. This is a long-term problem. Mobley’s star is essentially rising every game therefore more touches and attempts will be going his way. Where does Allen fit in that?
Through the first quarter of the season, it doesn’t appear that there is a fit for Allen with this version of what the Cavaliers want to be. It doesn’t mean that Allen makes the Cavaliers a worse team. Lineups with Allen and Mobley together are still clearly effective posting 122.9 points per 100 possessions (92nd percentile) and averaging a +11.7 differential (93rd percentile). What this recent Allen stretch could be hinting at is that there might be more cohesive players to plug in.
Options are certainly out there for the Cavaliers. Whether finding a true three for the roster or finding a four who pairs better with Mobley in closing minutes. Allen’s deal is team-friendly, especially when you are talking about one of the best true centers in the league. This isn’t saying that the Cavaliers have to rid themselves of Allen but it is fair to ask if you cannot play one of your best players in clutch time, why not find someone who can? It can feel like this is nitpicking a team at their apex, but, there is a counterargument that the Cavaliers could be one player away from reaching the pinnacle of their ability.
Between Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and now Evan Mobley the Cavaliers have three players that warrant the ball at all times. Allen has found himself in a “fit in or fit out” basketball environment. As someone who has never rooted for the Cavaliers to break up their young bigs, it concerns me that Allen looks this separated from the team’s success. As lovable as Allen is as a player and a person, not being able to consistently close with Allen proves that it might be time to look and see what the options out there are.