Juventus and Manchester City both languish outside the automatic qualification spots in the Champions League. Can either side clinch a huge three points when they face off on Wednesday? Find out in our Juventus vs Man City prediction.
Juventus vs Manchester City: The Quick Hits
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City favourites for victory at Juventus, but not overwhelmingly. They won 47.8% of our pre-match simulations, compared to 26.1% for the Bianconeri.
This could be the first time a Pep Guardiola team has conceded multiple goals in three successive UCL matches, with Man City shipping four versus Sporting CP and three against Feyenoord.
Man City’s current winless run against Juventus is their joint-longest against an opponent in European competition (5), along with a five-game run against Barcelona between 2014 and 2016.
The new UEFA Champions League format has thrown up more than a few surprises to date, and there are several big names toiling in the lower reaches of the 36-team table.
Juventus and Manchester City are two such clubs, sitting 19th and 17th respectively ahead of Matchday 6, as they prepare to do battle at the Allianz Stadium in Turin.
Pep Guardiola could have been forgiven for thinking City’s poor form was behind them when they beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 in the Premier League last Wednesday, but they were swiftly brought back down to earth by Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, in which they twice had to come from behind and saw Rico Lewis sent off.
In the Champions League, Guardiola’s men are winless in two. They were first thrashed 4-1 by Sporting CP then squandered a three-goal lead in a 3-3 draw at home to Feyenoord. Never before has a team managed by Guardiola conceded multiple goals in three straight Champions League games.
The Premier League champions struggled defensively again at Selhurst Park last weekend, with the out-of-form Kyle Walker found wanting for both Palace goals. They will hope to have Manuel Akanji and John Stones fit for the trip to Italy, while Lewis will also be available before he serves a domestic suspension for next week’s Manchester Derby.
Lewis, who will be 20 years and 20 days old on Wednesday, is the youngest player to have played every minute for his team in the Champions League this term, while he also leads all players aged 21 or under for chances created (13) and expected assists (2.0 xA) in the 2024-25 edition.
Perhaps the most glaring problem for City concerns their failure to contain counterattacks without Ballon d’Or-winning midfielder Rodri. Only Milan (14) allowed their opponents more fast breaks than City (13) across the first five Champions League matchdays, while no team has faced more shots from such situations (13).
Last season, Newcastle United (2.8), Braga (2.0), Napoli (1.9), Red Star Belgrade (1.8) and Manchester United (1.7) all faced more fast breaks per 90 minutes in the competition than City (1.6), and six teams averaged more shots conceded from those breaks per game than their figure of 1.1.
Matheus Nunes has been handed a more prominent role by Guardiola as he searches for solutions in the engine room, and the former Wolves man has at least contributed going forward.
He has assisted three goals in his last three Champions League matches and is the only City player to tee up more than one goal in the competition this season. Meanwhile, only Benfica’s Ángel Di María matched his five big chances created across the first five matchdays.
Given the stakes and the patience preached by both Guardiola and Juve coach Thiago Motta – who debuted for Barcelona’s first team shortly after Guardiola left Camp Nou as a player in 2001 – we could be in for a cagey affair.
Indeed, across the first five Champions League matchdays, Juve and City rank among the top five teams for average time per sequence in possession (17.2 seconds for City, 14.1 for Juve).
For Juventus, it has often been a case of possession without purpose. They were forced to fight back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Bologna on Saturday, and while that result maintained their unbeaten start to the Serie A season, they have drawn nine of 15 matches and sit sixth in the table.
Against more accomplished opponents in the Champions League, their insistence on playing out from the back has repeatedly landed them in hot water. Across the first five matchdays, no team has faced more high turnovers than Juve’s 62 (level with RB Salzburg), or conceded more shots from such situations (12, level with Young Boys).
While their last two European outings have seen them battle to draws at Lille (1-1) and Aston Villa (0-0), they have lost four of their last six home matches in the Champions League (two wins), in a run stretching back to 2022. That is as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 40 home outings in the competition between October 2013 and December 2021.
If they are to change their fortunes on Wednesday, Porto loanee Francisco Conceição could have a role to play. He has completed 18 dribbles in four Champions League appearances this season, averaging 5.2 completed dribbles per 90 minutes – that is the highest figure on record by a Juventus player in a single campaign (since 2003-04, minimum 300 minutes).
Juventus vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Juventus and City have faced each other on six previous occasions in Europe. After losing their very first meeting in September 1976 (1-0 in the UEFA Cup), Juventus have gone unbeaten in each of the last five, winning three and drawing two.
Indeed, City’s current five-match winless run against Juventus is their joint-longest against any single opponent in major European competitions.
They also went five without a victory against Barcelona between 2014 and 2016. However, City have never previously faced Juve under Guardiola’s management.
Juventus vs Manchester City Prediction
With games against Paris Saint-Germain and Club Brugge to come in the new year, City may need a victory in Italy if they are to avoid a play-off tie in the spring.
The Opta supercomputer makes them favourites with a 47.8% chance of victory, though that does leave Juventus with a 52.2% chance of getting at least a point.
Juventus were victorious in 26.1% of the supercomputer’s match simulations, earning a point in exactly the same proportion.
Juventus vs Man City Prediction Opta
As for both teams’ overall hopes of progression, the supercomputer holds out more hope for City than it does for Juve. In our latest set of tournament predictions, Guardiola’s team are given a 75% chance of reaching the last 16, though they are forced to go through the play-offs in 82% of scenarios.
Juventus, meanwhile, are seen as 87% likely to feature in the play-offs, but only reach the last 16 in 55% of tournament simulations.
Juventus vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Juventus Predicted Lineup vs Man City
Man City Predicted Lineup vs Juventus
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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