I’m sure I’m not the only football writer who has a love-hate relationship with Buffalo Bills fans. But, surprisingly, I didn’t get much backlash for recently saying the Bills might still be pretenders after the loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Maybe I’m just doing a better job of ignoring social media comments. Or perhaps Bills fans understood my concerns. When most football pundits chalked it up to one loss against a good team, I couldn’t help but harp on all the coaching blunders and defensive lapses in the wildly entertaining shootout in Los Angeles.
Josh Allen is great and a frontrunner for MVP, but he might not have enough help—especially from coach Sean McDermott, who’s known for questionable decisions in crunch time. But I’m not going to overreact too much because the Bills have a strong shot of winning the AFC. Honestly, most teams currently in the AFC playoff picture do.
I’m done making tiers in the wide open AFC and am simply looking forward to how all this plays out in the postseason. But just don’t get upset if the Kansas City Chiefs make it to another Super Bowl because teams still haven’t learned how to beat them when it comes to situational football. Then again, it’s all luck for the Chiefs, right?
But luck is for the mediocre, as the great Luis R. Conriquez once said. And there’s nothing mediocre about a 12–1 record after winning back-to-back Super Bowls. (Can’t believe I just quoted one of my favorite songs of 2024 in a football story and it flowed.)
All right, let’s get to winners and losers of NFL Week 14.
Chiefs’ three-peat quest
Sure, call the Chiefs lucky, but that lucky team now has the best path into Super Bowl LIX because they’re a few wins away from clinching the top seed in the AFC.
The Chiefs are 10–0 in one-score games through the first 14 weeks of the season,becoming the first team this century to do that. So maybe it’s more about the Chiefs’ thriving with situational football and less about luck or voodoo magic or fixed games or any other reason the internet has made up to explain Kansas City’s flurry of narrow wins.
The Chiefs (12–1) still have a difficult schedule in the final four weeks of the regular season, but so do the Bills (10–3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10–3). (The Chiefs and Steelers play each other on Christmas Day.) If Kansas City clinches the top spot, they get to rest for a week and welcome teams to the freezing conditions at Arrowhead Stadium. Good luck beating the Chiefs when situational football matters most and playing in a hostile environment in the middle of winter.
Some luck is always needed to win the Super Bowl, but I guess a ton of luck is needed to win three consecutive Lombardi Trophies. The Chiefs have created their own luck to win nine consecutive AFC West titles and position themselves for another No. 1 seed in the postseason. That’s tough luck for those tired of seeing the Chiefs win.
Sam Darnold and Kevin O’Connell
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has created somewhat of a win-win situation for himself because of his breakout 2024 season.
Unless Darnold’s play falls off a cliff in the next month, he will likely see a contract worth more than $100 million on the open market in the offseason. The Vikings might not be the team to give Darnold that kind of money since they just drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round, but getting to stay in Minnesota and working with coach Kevin O’Connell wide receiver Justin Jefferson for at least another season is also an enticing option. Perhaps Darnold and the Vikings work out a year-to-year deal, something similar to what the Seattle Seahawks and Geno Smith agreed to after Smith’s breakout 2022 season.
I recently wrote that both sides need each other because it would be risky if Darnold goes elsewhere and gets a similar setup to what he had with the New York Jets, and it’s not a given McCarthy will thrive in his second season after not playing as a rookie while recovering from a significant knee injury.
It’s possible that O’Connell’s scheme is quarterback proof and he could just plug in a different veteran in case Darnold leaves and McCarthy isn’t ready (like the recently signed Daniel Jones, for example). But we saw the limitations Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens had last year despite the benefits of receiving play calls from O’Connell and getting to throw to Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Darnold has been a difference maker for the Vikings (11–2) and it showed in his near perfect performance against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Regardless of what happens in the offseason, Darnold and O’Connell have created options for themselves to continue thriving in 2025.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield and the Buccaneers' running back tandem of Irving and White has Tampa Bay's offense humming. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Buccaneers’ playoff hopes
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on shaky ground after a wave of injuries led to a 4–6 record and put them two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South standings.
But plenty has changed since Tampa Bay’s bye week. The team is on a three-game winning streak with a healthy Mike Evans and a dynamic backfield that features Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. The Bucs now control first place in the NFC South because they didn’t feel sorry for themselves (and it didn’t hurt that the Falcons dropped four consecutive games).
If the Buccaneers manage to beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, they’re set up well to win the division, with games against the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints to end the regular season. The odds were against the Buccaneers to quickly turn into divisional favorites, but here we are with a team that has plenty of talent and good coaching. And let’s not forget these Buccaneers (7–6) are the only team in the NFL to defeat the Detroit Lions this season.
The work offensive coordinator Liam Coen has done with Baker Mayfield this season deserves more attention. He’ll likely land a few interviews for head coaching jobs.
Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decisions
I thought my editor Mitch Goldich put it well when he summarized Lions coach Dan Campbell’s aggressive approach on fourth downs, which paid off in the victory against the Green Bay Packers.
“It might cost them a Super Bowl, but it could just as easily win them a Super Bowl,” Goldich said. “The possibility of both outcomes, then thin margins between them, the fact that the big moment only happens once… That's what makes it all beautiful.”
(As a side note, I wouldn’t have seen this if Goldich didn’t get me to sign up for Bluesky over the weekend. I’m not sure how much I’ll use it, but follow me @gilbertomanzano.bsky.social. And what’s with the long username on this new app? It really bothers me for some reason.)
Anyway, I didn’t criticize Campbell for his failed fourth-down decisions against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game last season because he stayed true to the team’s identity. But I do wonder how he’ll be if those moments occur again for the Lions (12–1) in the postseason.
Judging from the win vs. Green Bay, Campbell hasn’t changed, and I’m O.K. with that because not many coaches have a better pulse on their respective teams.
Puka Nacua’s elite status
The Rams can beat any team in the league whenever they get Puka Nacua going early in games. That’s why Rams coach Sean McVay gave him the ultimate compliment after calling the second-year wideout the team’s “igniter” following the wild 44–42 shootout against the Bills.
Two of the Rams’ biggest wins of the season occurred because they quickly punished the defenses of the Bills and Vikings by feeding Nacua. Los Angeles desperately missed Nacua when he was sidelined for five games, leading to a 1–4 start for McVay’s team. Nacua has cracked 100 receiving yards in four games since returning from the knee injury (Los Angeles is 3–1 in those games).
The Rams (7–6) have an abundance of young playmakers on both sides of the ball, but no player is more important than Nacua. If they get into the postseason and establish Nacua early in games, they’ll be a dangerous team to deal with.
Bills HC Sean McDermott
I’ve been hesitant to give the Bills proper credit as a Super Bowl contender because of their past postseason failures. I did eventually begin to wonder whether this might finally be their year, but then I saw the coaching differences between McVay and McDermott.
McDermott had a few costly coaching decisions in crunch time during the loss vs. the Rams, including calling an unsuccessful QB sneak and burning a timeout in the final minute of regulation. This wasn’t as bad as the meltdown in Houston in Week 5, but McDermott is known for head-scratching decisions in big spots.
And the Bills’ poor defensive performance in L.A. brought back memories of their blowout postseason loss against the Cincinnati Bengals from two years ago. This defense lacks talent and could get exposed by the Chiefs, Steelers and Baltimore Ravens come January. I’m not convinced Allen has enough help to finally get to the Super Bowl.
But, hey, McDermott and the Bills can quiet the doubters by beating the Lions this upcoming week.
Cardinals’ surprising season
The 2024 Arizona Cardinals were a nice story for 10 weeks, but we can now forget about them as playoff hopefuls after a three-game losing streak and an ugly loss to the Seahawks.
The Cardinals have been downgraded, by me, to merely a pesky team that can play spoiler in the final four weeks of the regular season. And Kyler Murray needs to do everything he can to ensure the Cardinals (6–7) spoil the postseason hopes of the Rams and 49ers when they play them in a few weeks or the organization might begin to wonder whether he’s the right quarterback to lead the franchise.
And I understand the Cardinals still have decent odds to win the NFC West, especially with upcoming matchups against the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers. But I’m more fed up with the Cardinals’ stagnant offense than Marvin Harrison Jr.’s fantasy football managers.
There were rumors about Murray possibly being on the way out if the Cardinals landed one of the top three picks in the 2024 draft, but they ended up picking fourth and selected Harrison. Murray has failed to get on the same page with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and hasn’t had much downfield chemistry with Harrison. And now he has had issues with turnovers, throwing five interceptions during this three-game losing streak.
If the Cardinals don’t win out or at least go 3–1 during the final stretch, the team should strongly consider adding quarterback competition for Murray in the offseason. But if the team doesn’t view Murray as the problem, that might not be good news for Petzing, who hasn’t found another gear to a boring, conservative offense.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins
Cousins has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdown passes during Atlanta's four-game losing streak. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Falcons’ playoff hopes
Perhaps one of the reasons why Falcons coach Raheem Morris can’t justify benching Cousins could be because his defense hasn’t done the veteran quarterback any favors.
Morris partly got hired in Atlanta because of his successful stint as the Rams’ defensive coordinator, but the Falcons’ defense has struggled in many critical areas. They have a league-low 19 sacks and only 11 takeaways. You can’t be bad in those two areas and expect to win games with a quarterback who struggles with ball security. The Falcons rank near the bottom in turnover differential with a mark of –9, which helps explain why they have a four-game losing streak and no longer control first place in the NFC South.
So, no, benching Cousins won’t solve all their problems, but starting Michael Penix Jr., who might offer more to mask the weaknesses on the defensive side, could be the way to get Atlanta in the playoffs.
The Falcons (6–7) neglected their defense when they selected Penix with the No. 8 pick in April’s draft and now they won’t even let Penix help them fix their issues. Morris is the captain of a sinking ship in Atlanta.
Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur
The Packers had the right idea to make life easier for Jordan Love by improving the defense and upgrading the rushing attack with the signing of Josh Jacobs.
The regular season is a marathon, and being good in those two areas are vital for adding offensive versatility and helping a young quarterback who’s had issues with interceptions. But Matt LaFleur now needs to unleash Love and ask him to play at the elite level he did down the stretch last season and hope that he has learned from his fourth-quarter mistakes.
This version of the Packers (9–4) that relies on complementary football got them in playoff position, but they’re 0–4 against the Lions, Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles, and have only two wins against teams who currently own a winning record (Rams and Houston Texans).
It’s time for LaFleur to alter the offensive scheme and let Love run the show before the postseason arrives. The Packers are good enough to beat the winner of the NFC West or NFC South in a wild-card matchup. But they won’t get further than that without the 2023 version of Love.
Bears’ effort level
It might be safe to say the Chicago Bears (4–9) have checked out of the 2024 season after an embarrassing effort in the blowout loss against the 49ers.
The Bears were on 10 days’ rest and found themselves down 24–0 in the first half vs. a 49ers squad that’s been decimated by injuries. At least Matt Eberflus kept games competitive before collapsing with brutal clock-management blunders.
But we shouldn’t be surprised about the Bears’ effort level in Santa Clara. You know it’s bad when Thomas Brown shared that he had lost 22 pounds since being elevated from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator to interim head coach in less than a month. There’s no sense of direction in Chicago, and the organization needs to hire a head coach who can change the culture and isn’t afraid to shake things up for a franchise that hasn’t gotten far in many decades.