Personal improvement is such a bizarre thing. It’s almost like aging. It happens so gradually that the results never feel tangible — until you look back at where you were a few years ago. Professional improvement is much the same. It’s a rare skill indeed where once something clicks, you go from amateur to journeyman, or journeyman to pro. Skill level is a spectrum and even all but one of the world’s masters looks up to another.
Improvement is less like putting together a puzzle one piece at a time, and more like putting together several puzzles simultaneously with the final objective being to combine them into a collage at the end. Improvement and development are not linear. Instead, they’re a slightly inverted sine wave, and so is aging for that matter. Some days I still feel mid-20s (although those are becoming much rarer), and other days the stairs seem like an unconquerable burden.
It’s been a long development road for Jayson Tatum’s isolation game, but he’s worked very hard on the disparate puzzles he’s had to construct to get where he is now. Where is he now you ask? Well, he’s pretty good.
Jayson Tatum continues his elite isolation play. Per Synergy, his isolation PPP (including passes and min 50 possessions) puts him at the 4th most efficient isolation player in the league. pic.twitter.com/u8MNz2SUYy
— Wayne Spooney (@WSpooney) November 30, 2024
Last year, he ranked 42nd in the NBA at 1.01 points per possession, and the year before that, he was at 1.02. He’s never been a bad isolation player, but he’s never quite been elite.
Until now.
While it’s undoubtedly impressive, it’s driven by him hitting a much higher percentage of his 3s out of isolation and turning it over at a ridiculously low rate (4.1% of possessions to 6.5% last season). To me, the important development there is the lack of turnovers. These aren’t just a sprinkle of his offense either. Isolation possessions alone account for almost 30% of his offense, and if you include pick-and-roll ballhandler possessions (with passes) which often end in Tatum attacking a mismatch similar to an iso, that’s another 32% of his offense.
But his isolation improvement isn’t just about the numbers, or just about his numbers at least. Tatum’s isolation game doesn’t just pass the eye test — it can read that super tiny print at the very bottom of the page. But the most impressive part isn’t the scoring, it’s when he decides not to score.
I’m not really sure Tatum has improved as an isolation scorer, except that the 3s are falling a bit more often this season. What he has improved on is when to attack in isolation and whom to attack. His decision making has never been damaging, but Tatum has embraced Mazzulla’s deliberate offensive approach. He now has a complex understanding of the personnel on the court and how he’s being defended, and he leverages that understanding at lightning speed.
Why attack Haywood Highsmith when Duncan Robinson is on the court? Once Payton Pritchard forces the switch with a ghost screen, Tatum doesn’t hesitate. He doesn’t get into a flurry of moves that let help defense creep into position. He doesn’t let Robinson off the hook with a step-back jumper. He dives right to the rim. And-1.
Same thing here, this time in the high post against Tyler Herro. Quick decision, all the way to the rim.
Tatum’s pull-up 3 game has been the topic of many Celtics discussions, often with much consternation. It is, at times, a bad shot, but it’s also a weapon that, when used correctly, diversifies Tatum’s attack. It’s going in this season and maybe that’s random, but I don’t think so. Tatum seems to be unleashing the step-back in specific matchups, namely against bigger defenders that have a strength advantage on him. He’s also getting into them a bit quicker, attacking before the defender can square up.
He absolutely fires this thing off against Torrey Craig.
Just a few crossovers to get Alex Sarr’s measure and it’s up.
Goes between the legs once and it’s up against Jalen Duran.
Here Duran does a much better job and actually forces Tatum to show off a bit of his handle. Cash.
Since he’s so deadly with the pull-up against bigger, slower players, he now works counters off of it. It’s like a master dancer leading a beginner through a complex routine, leaving his mark a few steps behind.
His reluctance to settle against smaller players with the step-back is a microcosm of his larger overall growth as an isolation scorer, and player in general. How many times have we seen end of quarter possessions end in dribbling the air out of the ball before firing up a prayer that’s not really close? While Tatum still does this at times, he’s started to get downhill in these situations as well.
These aren’t unselfish plays in the traditional sense. In many of them, he’s shooting. But they are unselfish in a more macro way. While he’s an elite playmaker out of isolations, his advanced basketball IQ means he’s no longer wasting possessions by attacking bad matchups or attacking good matchups in the wrong way.
We want Tatum to be selfish, i.e. take a lot of shots, but we want him to do it in a way that sets himself, and the Celtics, up for success. This type of rapid, complex understanding of basketball is rare air. It is, in many ways, the final step to superstardom. Tatum is no longer just manipulating his defender and weakside help; he’s manipulating the whole court, both for himself and his teammates. Jayson Tatum has ascended.