Cleveland Browns fans are in a unique place that is rare in the NFL. A veteran, highly paid team that is underachieving and, to some, unlikeable would normally lead to a tear-down and rebuild through the NFL draft. Instead, the Browns are likely to run it back at the top of the organization, are stuck with QB Deshaun Watson’s contract (despite plans to bring in veteran competition) and have sucked even draft excitement out of their fans.
There is also the little nuance of Cleveland’s record being bad but not bad enough due to tiebreakers and nine teams with four wins or less. While the Browns are tied for the third-worst record in the NFL behind the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, both with just two wins, they are currently slotted in the eighth spot in the 2025 NFL draft.
With the first tiebreaker being Strength of Schedule (SOS), Cleveland’s .525 mark is worse than all of the other three win teams after Week 14. Moving forward, as of now, only the New England Patriots have a stronger finishing schedule which means the Browns are unlikely to move up against teams with the same record.
The first tiebreaker makes some sense but is not perfect. If you have a weak SOS but win the same amount of games as a team with a stronger SOS you are considered to be a worse team. Interestingly, head-to-head games played are only used if the teams tie on the first tiebreaker. Cleveland losing to the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and Raiders will not impact draft positioning unless SOS is tied at the end of the season.
According to Pro Football Network, the Browns chances of securing the top overall selection are pretty slim:
New York Giants, 38.9%
New England Patriots, 18.0%
Las Vegas Raiders, 16.6%
Carolina Panthers, 7.0%
Cleveland Browns, 5.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars, 4.9%
Tennessee Titans, 3.6%
New York Jets, 3.1%
Chicago Bears, 2.1%
A lot of losing, so far with five games left, and all Browns fans might have to show for it is a top 10 pick but losing out on one of the premium picks at the top due to playing a difficult schedule.
What do you think of SOS being used as the primary tiebreaker instead of head-to-head first? Where do you think the Browns end up slotted in the first round when the season ends?