The second season is here—in most leagues, anyway.
Week 15 brings with it the fantasy playoffs. Months of hard work and research and setting lineups and blind luck has all come down to this—a few weeks. A few games. A few wins are all that separates you from fantasy glory.
Of course, getting those wins can be easier said than done. There are no more “gimme” games. No more tomato cans. No easy matchups. Make one mistake setting your lineup and leave points on the bench, and that’s that—season over.
The pressure can give fantasy managers the yips—at any position. Do you trust a proven starter even though they have a lousy matchup? Or do you roll with a matchup play?
The latter may seem all the more appealing where team defenses are concerned. And this analyst isn’t going to tell you which door you should choose in Week 15. That’s not really how Getting Defensive works anyway. Here it’s just a matter of listing some defenses that should be safe plays. Some potential streamers. And at least one defense that makes this analyst nervous.
What you do with that information is for you to decide—and that is as it should be.
The only person who has to live with the lineup decisions you make from here out is you.
So, choose wisely.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Baltimore Ravens (at New York Giants)
The Ravens are more reputation than fantasy production this season—Baltimore ranks outside the top-25 among defenses in fantasy points, and the Ravens pass defense is legitimately the worst in the league. But that probably won’t matter Sunday against a Giants team whose fans are so disgusted they are hiring skywriters to call Big Blue a dumpster fire. The Giants can’t throw the ball. They haven’t won a game at Met Life Stadium all season long. And the Giants have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses. The Ravens are going to wreck New York coming out of their bye.
Denver Broncos (vs. Indianápolis Colts)
It’s understandable if fantasy managers are a tad nervous about the Denver defense—when last we saw it, it was getting carved up by Jameis Winston for almost 500 passing yards. Of course, the Broncos also had two pick-sixes in that game and were third in fantasy points among defenses in Week 13 as a result. Denver sports the AFC’s highest-scoring fantasy defense. The team ranks eighth in total defense and second in scoring defense. And the Colts have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points per game to defenses in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)
The Vikings are this year’s poster defense for the disconnect between great NFL defense and great fantasy defense—no team has more fantasy points, but while the Vikes are 11-2 team that’s difficult to run the ball against the secondary is going to get Minnesota bounced from the playoffs in January. The Bears admittedly gave the Vikings all they could handle in Chicago before falling in overtime, but Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has been sacked approximately all the times ever and rushing the passer is something the Vikings have excelled at in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
The Eagles currently sit first in the NFL in total defense and third in fantasy points at the position—Philadelphia did an excellent job in the offseason of shoring up a secondary that was a major weak spot in 2023, and the Eagles’ offense puts considerable pressure on opponents to try to match scores. The Steelers aren’t an especially good fantasy matchup for defenses, but Pittsburgh could struggle to run the ball in this one, and if the team is without wide receiver George Pickens again moving the ball consistently could be an issue.
Green Bay Packers (at Seattle Seahawks)
This might seem an odd inclusion as a “No Doubter,” especially with this game being played in the Pacific Northwest. But the Packers have quietly fielded a defense in 2024 that ranks inside the top-10 in both run defense and scoring defense. The Packers are 10th in scoring among fantasy defenses. They have a respectable 33 sacks and the third-most takeaways (24) in the NFL. And while the Seahawks are a first-place team, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New York Jets (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
To say that the 2024 season has been a disappointment for the New York Jets is the mother of all understatements. But the defense has actually been pretty good—Gang Green ranks fourth in yards per game allowed, fourth against the pass and posted a fat fantasy stat line a couple of weeks ago against the Seattle Seahawks. New York ranks outside the top-20 for the season in fantasy points, but this week’s matchup with a Jaguars team rolling out Mac “Don’t Call Me Tom” Jones at quarterback puts them on the streaming radar. The Jaguars are a mess. Take advantage of that.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Cleveland Browns)
The Chiefs keep winning squeakers, and to be honest the defense hasn’t done a lot to turn the gears of fantasy managers—Kansas City barely ranks inside the top-20 in points and hasn’t hit double-digits in fantasy points since Week 8. But the Browns have spent much of this season making any fantasy defense they play a worthwhile start. The Browns lead the AFC in sacks allowed with 53. Only three teams have turned the ball over more this season. And the Browns have surrendered the second-most fantasy points in the league to defenses in 2024.
Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints)
In what’s something on a running theme in Week 15, the Commanders aren’t a good fantasy defense—they have hit double-digits in fantasy points exactly once this season. But the Saints have been a decent fantasy matchup even at full strength—New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to defenses this season. That was when the team had quarterback Derek Carr. And wide receiver Chris Olave. And tight end Taysom Hill. All of those guys will sit in Week 15, and there’s only so much Alvin Kamara can do by himself.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England Patriots)
There was actually a stretch where the Redbirds were a decent fantasy defense—from Week 5 to Week 12, the team was a top-10 fantasy unit. Granted, they looked nothing like one at home last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but Sunday they face arguably the most talent-deficient team in the NFL offensively in rookie quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots. For the season, the Patriots have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to team defenses. If you’ve been playing matchups all season long, this isn’t a bad one.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Tennessee Titans)
Let’s see—how to put this diplomatically. The Bengals suck defensively. Cincinnati ranks 26th in total defense and 29th in total defense, and those numbers really don’t describe just how bad Lou Anarumo’s unit has been at times in 2024. But this week that Cincy defense heads to Nashville to face a Titans team that was only able to score six points against Jacksonville’s pitiful defense last week. There’s really only one number you need to know with the Titans—no team has given up more fantasy points to defenses this year.
Atlanta Falcons (at Las Vegas Raiders)
This is admittedly a Hail Mary streaming play—the Falcons are a bottom-five defense that has struggled to generate big plays all season that has been put in far too many untenable positions by a quarterback who has no touchdown passes and eight interceptions over the last month. But somehow, the Raiders are in even worse shape under center than Atlanta—Vegas will be rolling out third-stringer Desmond Ridder Monday night in a game that is in primetime for reasons known only to the folks at ESPN and people who enjoy watching horrendous football games.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Philadelphia Eagles)
That the Steelers are a very good defensive football team isn’t in dispute—something about having T.J. Watt on a team tends to help in that regard. And fantasy’s third-ranked defense has been solid the past couple of weeks against the Bengals and Clowns. Pittsburgh even had a decent effort a few weeks ago against Baltimore’s buzzsaw of an offense. But while the Eagles may be grousing about their passing-game issues, Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to defenses this year. And their schedule after Week 15 is brutal—at Baltimore and then home against the Chiefs.
Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo Bills)
The Lions don’t get a lot of run defensively. The team has been ravaged by injuries on that side of the ball. But from a fantasy perspective at least, the team remains a top-five squad for the season. With that said though, there’s a reason there are a pair of “Caveat Emptor” teams this week—when last we saw Josh Allen he was standing on his head to the tune of six touchdowns against the Rams, and there isn’t a team in the NFL giving up fewer fantasy points to defenses this year than the Bills. This game has shootout written all over it.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at@IDPSharks.