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What does the Hibs data say about Kuharevich, Gayle, Bowie, and Vente?

Six strikes in their last three games have helped the 'goals for' column in the table look slightly more respectable, but with the array of attacking talent Hibernian have on their books it wouldn't be asking for the world to hope that they might have outscored Motherwell, St Johnstone, and St Mirren.

But missed opportunities at crucial times in too many games have been an alarmingly regular feature of the club's poor start to the Scottish Premiership campaign. Even with players elsewhere chipping in - defenders have contributed three goals, midfielders also three, and wingers seven - the fact that out-and-out centre-forwards have scored just five combined league goals, even allowing for one of them being out with a long-term injury, feels like a pretty woeful return from a team with annual designs on finishing in the European places.

So what does the StatsBomb data tell us about Hibs' strikers - those available, those injured, and those out on loan?

There was hope, and probably a fair amount of excitement, among the supporters when Mykola Kuharevich returned on another season-long loan deal. His previous spell had been cut short by injury but five goals in 15 games suggested there was a player in there, as did Lee Johnson's ultimately futile attempts to keep him at the club.

Injury to Kieron Bowie and a subsequent lengthy spell on the sidelines has probably increased the pressure on the Ukrainian striker, who didn't play much last season following his move to Swansea City. Kuharevich's stats prove he is contributing but he should have scored at least one goal at Celtic Park, and there have been other games in which his finishing has let him down.

What perhaps is cause for concern is how he stacks up compared to his previous spell. Granted, Hibs were in better nick under Johnson than they have been this season and his five goals all came when he was playing in a two-man strikeforce, which Gray has only recently adopted, but in most of the key metrics he is underperforming this season compared to 2022/23.

Data comparing 2022/23 Kuharevich to 2023/24 Kuharevich - with a similar number of 90 minutes played*(Image: StatsBomb)*

Viewing his StatsBomb data, we can see that this season, Kuharevich is underperforming his own stats in terms of xG per 90; number of shots per 90, shot on-ball value (OBV), which measures the value of a shot; aerial wins per 90, and touches in box per 90.

He has improved in terms of pressures - up to 22.69 per 90 from 20.91 - and xG/shot, which has increased from 0.13 in 2022/23 to 0.16.

But despite the fact that Kuharevich isn't quite reaching the heights he managed during his first loan stint, compared to the league average he is actually performing reasonably well in a number of key areas. The 23-year-old is above the league average for xG per 90 (0.42 compared to 0.28); xG per shot (0.16 to 0.13); shots per 90 (2.59 to 2.22); and aerial wins per 90. He is, however, losing the ball more than the average (4.32 times per 90 compared to 3.59 per 90) and he is posting below-average data for the number of touches in the box.

Data comparing Mykola Kuharevich (red) with the league average (blue) (Image: StatsBomb)

This may help to explain why Gray keeps starting him over, say, Dwight Gayle or one of the other players capable of filling in at centre-forward - such as Martin Boyle or Élie Youan.

Given that Bowie has played the equivalent of one full 90 minutes across his handful of substitute appearances in the league, it would seem pointless to post up his numbers compared to the league average, but the ones that stand out are his touches in the box per 90 (8.17 compared to the league average of 5.48), and his dribble and carry OBV (0.36 compared to the league average of 0.01).

Dwight Gayle also hasn't played much. Injury, arriving late to the squad in mid-September after signing as a free agent, and being used almost exclusively as a substitute has limited him to a combined total of slightly less than three full matches.

While that's not a whole lot more than Bowie, you can see from his data, in which he is either on a par with or outperforming the league average, what he brings to the team. Perhaps Gayle and Kuharevich together would be an interesting duo but a lack of striker options probably rules it out as an option for Gray.

Data comparing Dwight Gayle (green) with the league average (red) (Image: StatsBomb)

We've seen glimpses of what Gayle can do - the smart downward header against Dundee United at Tannadice to put Hibs in front before their late collapse; his cushioned header to tee up Josh Campbell for the third against Motherwell. But we also saw him pass up a trio of chances against Hearts in the first Edinburgh derby of the season, while Kuharevich came off the bench and scored.

Newly-installed head of recruitment Garvan Stewart may already be scouring the transfer market for reinforcements to help Hibs in the scoring charts. This time last year Myziane Maolida was the surprise package of the January window, hitting 11 goals in 20 games and his goals almost certainly saved Hibs from a nervy ending to the league campaign.

There's also the Dylan Vente question: He has scored four goals in 15 for loan side PEC Zwolle, and speaking recently Gray refused to rule out discussing an early return for the Dutchman. His stats for last season compared to Kuharevich for this season don't really suggest that he would be an obvious upgrade on the Ukrainian - the most noteworthy numbers tell us that he is among the lowest for turnovers per 90, but takes fewer shots and wins fewer aerial balls than Kuharevich.

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It might be felt within HTC that Vente is best served seeing out his loan in the Eredivisie, with Kieron Bowie targeting a return to action before January is out. But it would be an awfully big risk by Hibs to put all their goal eggs in a Bowie-shaped basket. He has undoubtedly been missed and is progressing well in his rehabilitation, but he will also be desperate to avoid any setbacks.

A lack of youth options has further reduced Gray's attacking arsenal. Josh Landers, who got first-team minutes under Nick Montgomery, has had injuries to deal with while Dean Cleland is still some way from being ready for senior involvement despite making the first-team squad as an unused substitute under Montgomery.

Maybe Vente would have been a good foil for Kuharevich; we may never know. But the club needs to do something in January to address a relative lack of goals. With the team as a whole finding the net with more consistency, there is optimism, but it's about getting the blend right: ensuring that there are number nines in the team who can put the ball in the net, and players elsewhere who can get it to them in the first place.

In the meantime however, and assuming the injury that forced him off against Celtic is not a long-lasting one, Kuharevich looks a good bet to start up top against Ross County this weekend with Gayle an option to come off the bench. But Gray could really do with one, or both of them, finding the net and easing some of the pressure on those in other positions on the park.

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