Every NBA season, we parse together a plethora of trends to give us some indication as to who the best team is before the fateful Final series in June. Chief among these are typically offensive rating and defensive rating. How much does your team score and how much scoring do they allow per 100 possessions?
Going back to 1980, two of the 45 championship teams have been in the top five in either or both offensive and defensive rating. Among those teams, 13 were top 5 in both. 34 were top 10 in both. In the most obvious analysis possible, to win a championship a team needs to be pretty good at basketball all around and usually very good at one half of it.
Of course, there are outliers. The worst offense on the list was the 2004 Detroit Pistons (18th), who were a great regular season defense and elite playoff defense. The worst defense was the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers (21st), who held the 2nd best offense and set the record for the best postseason record that playoffs (16-1).
Others stick out, six teams were top 5 in offense but 10th or worse in defense. Seven were top 5 defenders but 10th or worse scorers. The only three teams to miss the top 5 in either category are the 1995 Houston Rockets, the 2006 Miami Heat, and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks. Overall, these three teams show that if you aren’t elite at both, you need to be super elite at one or have all-time historic NBA superstar(s) refusing to be denied their mark in history.
In the Spurs’ five championship seasons spread over 16 years, they have an unsurprising trend themselves: defense. In every season yielding a Larry O’Brien trophy, San Antonio’s defense was better than their offense and was never worse than 3rd. Offensively, they ranged from good to elite. Chronologically, their championship offensive ratings go 11th, 7th, 8th, 5th, and 6th.
Where offensive and defensive rankings give useful insight is they take into account the context of that particular season and show where a team ranks amongst its peers. It isn’t a perfect stat, none are, but it is useful when looking at eras as a whole.
If we make the arbitrary selection of decades, other trends emerge. While the overall average ranking stays consistent for both offense and defense, at 5.4 and 5.5 respectively, there are slight tilts from one direction to the other.
The 1980’s saw an offensive average of 3.2 and a defensive average of 5.6. For the 90’s, things are more central, but defense begins to gain favor, with an average offensive rank of 5.8 and defensive rank of 4.4. Although they are close, defense getting the nodd here is unsurprising considering the defensive prowess of those Bulls and Rockets teams, capped with a dominant Spurs defense (1st) in 1999.
The 2000’s, a decade dominated by the Spurs and Lakers, continued to slightly favor defense with average offense and defense rankings of 6.5 and 5.4. In the 2010’s, things naturally start to balance back out, with offense at 4.9 and defense at 6.6. It was also the only decade to see a decrease in the sum of the two from the decade previous.
Keep the caveat in mind that this decade is only half over, but the 2020’s are where things get a little wacky. Average offensive ranking is 7.6 and average defensive rating is 6.6. The title winners from 2020 to 2023 are among the most lopsided, specializing in either offense or defense, which explains why the averages are so much higher than previous eras.
The offense is heavily dragged down by the 2022 Golden State Warriors (17th in offense, 1st in defense). Reflectively, defense is dragged down by the 2023 Denver Nuggets (5th in offense, 16th in defense). It isn’t just those outliers though. Four of the five champions were ranked 10th or worse on one side of the ball while being 5th or better on the other. Last year’s Celtics of course break this, ranking in the top 3 in each and setting the all-time record for offensive rating.
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Granted, there are other things to consider — namely, the pandemic, which suddenly halted the 2020 season that was then finished in the bubble. Ripple effects continued into the following seasons with limited fan attendance, player illness, and health and safety protocols.
As the league is set to enter 2025 and the second half of this decade, things can be looked at in a few ways. Is this streak of parity going to continue, or is this clearing the way for a team like Boston to go on a run?
Where do the Spurs fit in, as they’ve been slowly but surely ramping up in link with Victor Wembanyama’s superstardom? Defense is certainly the young star’s calling card, which fits perfectly in line with every previous Spurs championship. Is the runway cleared for him to lift off and then soar into the 2030’s?
It will be interesting to see if the 2020-2023 run will be an outlier or the start of a new trend. Historically, the evidence says it could go either way. Championship offense and defense tend to float back and forth. But lately, that swing has been bigger and quicker than ever, a reflection of the league’s parity.
Strategically, the question will be if more teams double down on their strengths and settle with being just okay on the other side of the ball, or do they shoot their best shot at absolute dominance, a shot with a low percentage?