Enzo Maresca's side are no longer Cole Palmer FC - but there are still problems to solve
Second in the Premier League, just four points behind Liverpool (who have a game in hand) and eight games unbeaten, Chelsea are in a title race whether they like it or not.
Enzo Maresca maintains his callow entertainers are not serious contenders to win the title, a regularly-repeated line which increasingly feels like a platitude delivered with a knowing smile.
“The fans can dream because from the outside, it is quite clear,” Maresca said after beating Tottenham on Sunday. “Inside, the reality is we are not ready. But the important thing is we improve day by day.”
But is he right to rule this side out of contention, or should they be considered among the favourites?
Here are the numbers behind the Maresca era so far.
Chelsea have an attack of title-winning quality
With 35 goals in just 15 Premier League games this season, Chelsea have scored four more than any other club, as well as a further 26 in just eight games across the Carabao Cup and Conference League.
This makes them the most prolific team in England’s top flight, albeit helped by eight against Armenian side Noah and four against Gent and Panathinaikos.
But the underlying numbers support that Maresca has crafted the top-flight’s premier attack. They are only slightly overperforming their expected goals (xG) figure, which also tops the league – although Liverpool are only slightly behind despite playing one game fewer – suggesting their attacking dominance is sustainable.
And another indicator of Chelsea’s attacking excellence is the quality of chances they are creating – the joint-second best in the Premier League.
Only Brentford have a higher xG per shot than Chelsea, which indicates they are repeatedly creating high-quality chances. When coupled with the improvement in Nicolas Jackson’s finishing and the signings of Jadon Sancho, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix – all of whom have impressed in flashes – they have both the opportunities to score regularly and the players to do so.
Alongside this, they lead the league for shots on target (92 – joint with Man City), while ranking second for big chances, with their 54 trailing Liverpool’s 57 but topping Arsenal (51) and Man City (44).
And when compared to previous title winners, Chelsea’s attacking numbers still hold their own. 35 goals in 15 league matches equates to 2.33 goals per game, which would extrapolate to 89 goals across a whole season if they maintain this scoring rate.
That would be better than 16 of the 24 Premier League winners in the 21st century, and over 20 goals more than Manchester United’s 2008-09 and Leicester’s 2015-16 victorious campaigns.
It is also above the average 85 goals it has taken to win the title this century, although that number has risen in recent years – the champions have scored more than 90 goals in five of the past seven seasons.
Yet on the basis of these numbers, there is little doubt Chelsea have an attack of title-challenging quality.
And they are no longer Cole Palmer FC
The most common criticism of Chelsea’s attack in the past 18 months has been a dependence on Cole Palmer, however good he may be.
Mauricio Pochettino coined the term “Cole Palmer Football Club” ahead of the 5-0 defeat by Arsenal in April, suggesting everything Chelsea did runs through the 22-year-old and their attack could not function without him.
To a certain extent, this is still true – in fact there’s an argument it’s got worse. Palmer scored 28.6 per cent of Chelsea’s 77 Premier League goals in 2023-24, but that has risen to 31.4 per cent this season.
Yet there are six clubs which are more dependent on a single player than Chelsea is on Palmer, including both Liverpool (Mohamed Salah) and Manchester City (Erling Haaland).
And crucially, Chelsea are sharing the goals around. Palmer, Jackson and Noni Madueke are the most prolific goalscoring trio for a single club in this season’s Premier League, with their 24 goals (11 for Palmer, eight for Jackson and five for Madueke) two more than Brentford’s three-pronged attack.
In fact, all three of those players rank in the top 12 for expected goals this season, with Chelsea the only club to feature more than twice. This is no longer just about Palmer.
This shows Maresca is varying his attacking methods and patterns. 10 different Chelsea players have scored in the Premier League this season, with only Arsenal, Bournemouth and Brighton (all 12) beating that total. Given the depth of their squad and the available weapons, there is an argument Chelsea could finally weather a dreaded Palmer injury if and when it strikes.
But is the defence quite as good?
Yet while they are a huge amount of fun to watch, concerns around this Chelsea team centre almost entirely on their defence.
When fully fit, the first-choice backline of Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill and Marc Cucurella is among the league’s best, yet both James and Fofana are currently injured and have recently had long lay-offs.
This leaves Maresca forced to rely on the likes of Tosin Adarabioyo, Benoit Badiashile and Axel Disasi, none of whom are centre-backs of Fofana or Colwill’s quality. At full-back, Malo Gusto is a worthy supporting act for James, but also prone to minor knocks and niggles and often asked to play out of position on the left due to Ben Chilwell being frozen out.
There are also understandable doubts about the long-term suitability of Robert Sanchez, who made repeated errors in Sunday’s 4-3 win over Tottenham. His back-up Filip Jorgensen has performed well when required, but does not have the requisite body of work behind him to suggest he would be a definite improvement.
This is a clear weakness in an otherwise excellent first XI – Leicester were the last Premier League champions without a goalkeeper who will be remembered as an all-time great. Arsenal’s signing of David Raya – and the remarkable impact he has since made – set an example Chelsea must follow if they are to markedly improve at the back.
All this uncertainty is reflected by the numbers. While Chelsea have the highest xG of any team, they sit 10th for expected goals conceded (xGC), with 24.32 xGC indicating they have been very fortunate to only concede 18 goals – the joint-third best figure in the league.
This should concern Chelsea fans. Their defensive numbers are trailing the likes of Everton, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth – not least Tottenham – and just three league clean sheets this season is an incredibly poor tally for a club with Champions League aspirations, let alone title hopes.
In fact, even if you take Chelsea’s 18 goals conceded at face value, it still extrapolates to 46 goals conceded over a 38-game season. Only one team this century has won the Premier League despite conceding that many – Arsenal in 2001-2002 – and only two previous winners have conceded more than 40.
Given the xGC numbers suggest Chelsea should have been shipping goals at an even higher rate, this is not a good sign. For all the arguments their attacking form is worthy of title contention, the same cannot be said of their backline.
And so Maresca is right. For all the freewheeling thrills the likes of Palmer, Jackson, Madueke and Sancho offer, defence is famously what wins titles. Chelsea will not be true contenders until this markedly improves.