Monaco arrive in north London for a huge Champions League game on Wednesday, as both teams search for the victory that would see them take a huge leap towards a spot in the last-16 of the new-look competition.
Only goal difference separates us from the Ligue 1 giants going into matchweek six, with both locked on 10 points from our opening five games, enough to occupy a coveted top-eight spot in the 36-team table.
And those spots could prove crucial in the season’s final shakeup. As well as receiving a bye into the round of 16 and avoiding two extra play-off round games involving the clubs finishing ninth to 24th, the elite eight will receive home advantage in the second legs of those ties in March.
The benefits of maintaining a spot in the top eight are huge, but the question remains - how many points would be enough to clinch one?
At the start of the season, Opta decided to try and answer that. Using their supercomputer, they simulated the league phase fixtures 50,000 times to see how many points were needed to finish in the top eight, and indeed the top 24.
And for us, and indeed Monaco, there is some good news. Opta found that in 99% of their simulations, teams who collected 10 points made it into the play-off round. That means that if their calculations are correct, both ourselves and Monaco will walk out at Emirates Stadium on Wednesday safe in their knowledge their European adventures will continue in the spring.
Encouragingly, even nine points proved to be enough in 69% of simulations, so it seems we can now turn our attention to securing a priceless top eight spot - and Opta has a target in mind.
Following their 50,000 simulations, they believe 16 points will be enough. That was the total that brought qualification in 98% of scenarios, while 15 points was sufficient for eighth place in 73% of simulations. 14 points meanwhile was enough in just 28% of the supercomputer’s simulations, meaning 15 seems to be the magic number to target.
With 10 in our pocket already, that would mean two wins from our final three games against Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona would see us into the last 16, enjoy two midweeks off watching the action on TV, and take one step closer to getting our hands on the most coveted piece of silverware in European football.
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