As the 2024 NFL season continues on, many fans have already begun to dream about the playoffs and beyond into the offseason. One of the topics that will, of course, be much discussed is the need for the [Seattle Seahawks](https://www.fieldgulls.com/) to free up cap space for 2025, as the team is looking at being nearly $15M over a projected cap of $272.5M. The possibility certainly exists that the cap could come in higher, just as it did this year, but regardless of where it comes in there will be decisions that need to be made.
Looking at the cap hits for the members of the roster next season, the players with the three largest cap hits have drawn the most attention of fans. Those three are, in order of cap hit:
* Geno Smith: $38.5M
* DK Metcalf: $31.875M
* Tyler Lockett: $30.895M
It seems almost guaranteed that something will be done with Lockett’s contract, whether he opts to retire or whether the team restructures his contract like was done this past offseason. Similarly, with Metcalf entering the final year of his contract, a cap hit lowering extension would come as a surprise to almost no one.
That leaves Geno Smith, whose $38.5M cap hit will likely increase between now and the start of the 2025 league year in March.
Specifically, for those who may have forgotten, Smith is due a $10M roster bonus in March, and his contract includes several escalators that could increase the size of that bonus. In particular, Smith can earn $2M for outperforming his 2022 performance in each of the following categories:
* Yards
* Touchdowns
* Completion Percentage
* Passer Rating
* Wins/Playoffs
With that being the case, here is where Geno currently stands when it comes to potentially reaching each of those incentives.
Category
2022 Production
2024 Actual Production
Pace Needed
On Pace to Earn
Category
2022 Production
2024 Actual Production
Pace Needed
On Pace to Earn
Yards
4282
3474
3274
YES
Touchdowns
30
14
23
NO
Completion %
69.8
69.5000
69.8
NO
Passer Rating
100.9
90.4
100.9
NO
Wins
9
8
7.0
YES
So, Smith needs to average just over 200 yards per game over the remainder of the season to hit the passing yardage incentive, and the only game which he finished with less than 200 yards passing was the season opening win over the [Denver Broncos](https://www.milehighreport.com). That means that as long as Smith remains healthy and continues playing, he should hit this incentive. Likewise, with the Seahawks sitting at 8 wins, and 10 wins letting him reach the incentive for wins, this is a second incentive that he seems likely to reach.
However, when it comes to passer rating and touchdown passes, Smith is far enough away that he is unlikely to reach either. It’s certainly possible that he could go off for a couple of huge multi-touchdown games and make it close, but even four touchdowns a game in the each of the remaining four games would not be enough for him to reach the incentive for touchdowns.
Completion percentage is a different story, though. Currently at 69.5%, he needs to complete just four passes in a row in order to push his season completion percentage above the threshold necessary to earn the additional $2M. Thus, don’t be surprised if the offense sprinkles in an inordinate number of easy completions like wide receiver screens and pop passes over the final four games in order to allow Geno to earn a little extra.
In short, when looking at the Seahawks salary cap situation for 2025, it will be important to remember that Smith’s $38.5M cap hit is extremely unlikely to stay at that number because as long as Geno stays healthy, that cap hit is likely to increase to $42.5M or $44.5M between now and the offseason.