Following two victories Villa needed to stabilize themselves in the league table, it’s back to the Champions League and a very tricky fixture against RB Leipzig, who handled Villa rather easily in their preseason encounter.
Naturally, this one is set up for disappointment as well: A good side with plenty of CL experience that hasn’t yet won in this year’s competition after a very tough string of opponents and is also the second-most high-pressing team in the competition. So far, no German team has beaten an English side in this year’s edition. These are the kinds of things you don’t like to read.
Manager Marco Rose also feels Villa’s clear structure makes them easier to prepare for. I’m guessing Emery will be motivated by that, as should the players.
For their part, Villa sit ninth, one of seven clubs with a 3-1-1 record. A win would go a long way to avoiding a playoff match. But the most important thing is probably not losing. It’s all very tight, just like the league.
If there’s one thing Villa struggle with it’s consistent high pressure. (We might also add counterattacks this season.) Naturally you can punish this with accurate long balls of the sort that have caught us out, but we don’t seem to consistently produce them. You can also try to link play quickly and find the passes between the lines.
Villa typically prefer to play out down the left, which is something everyone will be aware of. There will be a lot of pressure on Torres/Mings, Digne, and whoever the structure determines is the third player in that first triangle (Kamara, Tielemans, Onana, generally). What you’d like to see is being able to quickly get out of that left-side pocket and switch play where there’s often more space. It’s harder to push it through the middle, but if the half-turns come off and someone like Rogers can find a little room to carry, then you get more options. Again, I’m sure Leigzig will want to deny that as much as possible. With Ramsey still out, it will be interesting to see whether Rogers remains on the left of midfield rather than in the trailing slot position he seems most influential in.
But, given his ability on the ball, having him still on the left might be a good thing and I don’t know that Emery really has much choice.
On the right side, well, we know that’s our real weakness. Cash very often has a heavy first touch, and very little to work with in front of him. Emery might well opt for the three CBs again given Philogene will almost certainly fill in for Bailey. If Onana is fit enough to play, Emery could throw Leipzig a wrinkle by starting both him and Kamara. However, it would be a first and I’m not sure given the run of niggles that Emery will really want to start Onana. It also would obviously change up the rest of the midfield mix, maybe with Youri playing further up behind Ollie/Duran, and McGinn shoring up the right hand side.
So that’s kind of where my head is at coming into this. We’ve all seen it and know how it works. It really comes down to execution and composure. While Villa have had good spells the last two matches, particularly against Brentford, we’re still a bit off where we were. We’re struggling for goals despite creating chances. One would like to think the damn will break and they’ll just start going in. Which may very well happen.
But overall, it seems like we’re just struggling for form in a number of areas. Bailey being so far off it robs us of width, threat, service. Super John has seemed a bit leggy and not at his best. It’s also asking a lot of him to play that second role up front. Players have dawdled a bit, either getting caught out or failing to make the right pass at the right time. Lots of small things that just add up. I’m not sure Philogene is really any more of a liability than Bailey at the moment, but Tielemans and McGinn haven’t been a formidable obstacle, and well, like I say, it’s kind of dominoes.
Don’t mean to sound gloomy, but I think what we’ve seen in this patch is not so much Emery being found out as the various levels of the players average performances being subpar after the Bournemouth game.
As I’ve mentioned before, it would be fabulous to have wide players who offer a real, consistent threat and are stronger off the ball (we are better with Ramsey in and Rogers up front). That might be where I’d be looking if I were Unai, but then you’d have three right wingers and I don’t think we can carry that on the roster. However, if I were Unai, we wouldn’t be in the Champions League. And while I’m really not trying to knock anyone (as I do think they’re all honest and hard-working players), I’d probably want a new RB. I’m not sure what Nedeljkovic is lacking that Bogarde offers. Maybe it’s just adaptation and experience. Bogarde is listed as a CB on the official roster after all, so maybe it’s that Emery has been hoping he’d enable that three CB set-up without playing Carlos and getting a little more threat upfield than Konsa offers.
Anyway, we’ll soon see the team sheet and then what we’ve got against a high energy side desperate to salvage their campaign. On the plus side, Leipzig are apparently without seven ‘starters’, which may present opportunities.
Over to you.