As the Kansas City Chiefs continue to win games — and reach a point where it’s possible they could clinch the AFC’s No.1 seed in Week 16 — sportswriters continue to tie themselves into pretzels trying to create a narrative that the Chiefs can’t possibly be as good as their record indicates. Here’s an example from this week, which comes from Eric Eidholm’s introduction to the NFL.com power rankings.
In the NFL offseason, I like to look at the teams with the best and worst records in one-score games from the season before. It’s one measure of whether clubs’ records actually reflected how good they were. All things being equal, the ones with the biggest discrepancies between one-score record and overall mark are most open to scrutiny. If your one-score win percentage was higher, you likely overachieved. Squads with far worse one-score records than overall marks probably underachieved. Or so the theory goes.
Eidholm concludes that because the Chiefs are 10-0 in one-score games, they have overachieved. But since the Baltimore Ravens have a 5-5 record in one-score games, they have underachieved.
On Monday, I saw an NFL analyst refer to a metric called PGWE, which is an acronym for Post-Game Win Expectancy. This statistic apparently measures the possibility a team will win a game that’s already been played.
Seriously... you just can’t make this stuff up.
Here’s this week’s sampling:
(up from 4)
The difference between Sunday’s win over the Chargers and the recent ones over the Raiders, Panthers and Broncos is that the Chiefs weren’t truly lucky to win — well, unless you call a bank-shot field goal luck, which I’ll allow. But in this game, they did what they needed to do, withstanding the Bolts’ push, holding them to a late field goal and driving down for the game-winning kick. The victory was orchestrated, not handed to them. That’s why this one felt a little different than the others of late. Yes, it required Kansas City doing what it typically does in high-leverage situations, but this was more of a formula that the back-to-back champions dictated rather than needing to rewrite the script with the latest absurd plot twist in the final moments. The pass protection still was a major worry, and the Chiefs aren’t rushing the passer like they have in the past, but they’re turning this late-game-winning thing into a strange art.
— Eric Edholm
(up from 3)
Most shocking ranking: 28th in sack percentage
The Chiefs sack opposing quarterbacks on just 5.5% of dropbacks and put pressure on them just 32% of the time, which is 22nd in the league. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is still blitzing 36.5% of the time, which is the third-highest mark, but it is far from the dominant pass-rushing team it was last season when the Chiefs led the NFL in sack percentage (8.8%).
— Adam Teicher
(unchanged from 6)
Breakout player: Cornerback Chamarri Conner
It’s mostly the old guard getting things done in Kansas City, but Conner could be the next really good cornerback developed by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The 2023 fourth-round draft pick has a career-high 68 tackles and, more importantly, is filling up the stat sheet with impact plays — two interceptions, a fumble returned for a touchdown, a sack and four quarterback hits.
— Josh Kendall
(up from 5)
I hope I don’t sound like Cris Collinsworth here, but after re-watching last night’s Chiefs-Chargers game I’ve come away with a new level of appreciation for Patrick Mahomes. Basing your thoughts solely on NextGenStats, one might come away with the thought that Mahomes was under pressure a lot. This is true… kind of. On a lot of snaps, there was just no one to throw to. But on snaps where there was true pressure, like one with a little more than 11 minutes to go in the second quarter, he hits a sidearm dart to Juju Smith-Schuster for a first down. This has been the biggest reason, in my opinion, that Kansas City’s margin of victory has shriveled. There’s fewer options to bail out Mahomes anymore from a receiving perspective and we’re seeing him forced to evolve yet again.
— Conor Orr
(up from 4)
They keep finding new ways to make us think they’re going to lose before they win.
— Mike Florio
(up from 3)
They won another close game against the Chargers with a field goal off the upright to win it. Winning close games will get them ready for the playoffs, which this group knows a lot about.
— Pete Prisco
(up from 4)
Even if we give Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes an edge of 20% over their opponent in each close game, the odds of a 60/40 event hitting 15 times in a row is about 0.047%. That’s 1 in 2,127. Yes, it’s OK to say the Chiefs are good in close games and also still quite lucky to win 15 in a row.
— Frank Schwab
(up from 4)
The Chiefs knew they were in for a gritty, physical grind against the Chargers again, and they survived with their clutch three-phase moxie, with the help of a fortunate bounce. Their ninth straight division title may feel like luck, but remember that also can be defined as the residue of design.
— Vinnie Iyer
(up from 5)
Sunday night’s two-point, division-clinching victory was pretty much a microcosm of K.C.’s bizarre season – including the fact the champs have had three kickers, two more than any other team in league history has had in one season, hit a game-winning field goal on the final play. But nice to have a two-game lead in the overall AFC standings, especially with Myles Garrett, Danielle Hunter and T.J. Watt set to test the Chiefs’ festering inability to protect QB Patrick Mahomes over the next month.
— Nate Davis
(unchanged from 2)
The Kansas City Chiefs might never have a dominant win again, but they just keep on winning and have [now] clinched the AFC West for the ninth straight season.
With the Bills falling in Week 14, the Chiefs’ odds of earning the No. 1 seed have greatly increased. It sure feels like the road to the Super Bowl will go through Kansas City again this season.
— Marcus Mosher