“We’re arguably not keeping up with the climate change that’s already occurred,” he added.
For the second study, published in Environmental Research Letters, the researchers trained artificial intelligence to predict how long until different regions reach different warming thresholds. They found western North America has a high likelihood of meeting the 2-degree Celsius threshold by around 2030 and is “virtually certain” to reach that level by 2040.
“This is earlier than what has been projected based on just the climate model projections,” said Diffenbaugh. “We find a narrower uncertainty and, in many cases, an earlier crossing of these warming thresholds.”
Diffenbaugh said the findings are a big deal for California and the Bay Area because he expects flood-inducing storms, sea level rise, heat waves and wildfires to worsen as climate change heats the planet.
That means state and local governments, as well as communities, will need to prepare for a warmer world and more extreme weather scenarios in the coming years.
“These results suggest that even in the best-case scenario for reducing emissions, people in ecosystems are still very likely to face conditions much more severe than what we’ve been exposed to so far,” he said.