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Scientists predict 60% chance of radio blackouts after sun unleashes solar flare toward Earth

By ELLYN LAPOINTE FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Published: 16:07 EST, 10 December 2024 | Updated: 16:18 EST, 10 December 2024

Experts predict a 60 percent chance of radio blackouts today after the sun unleashed an extremely powerful solar flare and sent it hurtling toward Earth.

Minor to moderate blackouts could last through Thursday, with a chance of a 'strong' disruption event affecting low-frequency navigation signals and resulting in a loss of radio contact, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Solar flares are blasts of electromagnetic radiation that explode from sunspots, or dark areas of the surface of the sun caused by strong magnetic fields.

When solar flares erupt, they send radiation blasting away from the sun's surface at the speed of light. If that radiation slams into Earth, it can disrupt the ionosphere, or the upper layer of the atmosphere that supports radio communication.

This most recent flare was an X-class - the most intense kind. It erupted from the surface of the sun Sunday, and has already caused shortwave radio blackouts over southern Africa.

This oncoming blast of solar plasma and radiation could also bring the northern lights to parts of northern Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota, though the chances are low.

Areas in northeastern Washington, northern Idaho, northeastern South Dakota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan could also see them, but it's even more unlikely in these locations.

The northern lights - also known as aurora - occur when charged particles from the sun interact with Earth's magnetic field, decorating the night sky with vibrant curtains of green, pink, red, yellow, blue and violet.

Experts predict a 60 percent chance of radio blackouts today after the sun unleashed an extremely powerful solar flare and sent it hurtling toward Earth (STOCK)

The X-class solar flare erupted from the surface of the sun on Sunday, reaching its peak around 4:06 am ET.

It was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), or a huge bubble of solar plasma and radiation that erupts from the sun's corona.

The CME may glance off Earth's magnetosphere - the region around our planet that is dominated by its electromagnetic field - but only mild impacts are expected, according to Space Weather Physicist Tamitha Skov.

'Despite a gorgeous X2.2-flare earlier today, the sun continues to have poor aim. The solarstorm launched will graze Earth to the west,' Skov wrote in an X post on Sunday.

'Sadly, the coming fast solar wind streams might deflect the structure even further to the west. Expect only mild impacts by midday December 11.'

Scientists are still analyzing the CME to better understand its trajectory and potential impact.

Meanwhile, the solar flare is expected to continue causing radio blackouts this week.

When a flare is strong enough, it emits extreme levels of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation that ionizes - or charges - the lower layers of the ionosphere.

Minor to moderate blackouts could last through Thursday, with a chance of a 'strong' disruption event to low-frequency navigation signals and resulting in a loss of radio contact

This oncoming blast of solar plasma and radiation could also bring the northern lights to parts of the northern US, though the chances of visibility are low

This can cause high-frequency radio signals to become degraded or completely absorbed, resulting in a radio blackout, according to NASA.

'Users of high-frequency (HF) radio signals may experience temporary degradation or complete loss of signal on much of the sunlit side of Earth,' NOAA stated on Sunday.

Solar flares are categorized into lettered groups based on how big they are, with X being the most powerful, followed by M, C, and the weakest, B.

Within each class, a numerical scale ranging from one to nine provides more detail about the flare's intensity. Sunday's flare was an X2.2.

Only X and M flares are strong enough to affect Earth, causing communication disruptions.

The sun is currently at solar maximum, or the peak in its 11-year cycle characterized by heightened solar activity.

That means events like solar flares and CME's are especially common right now.

On October 15, NASA, NOAA and the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the sun has reached its solar maximum period, which could continue for the next year.

That means there are likely many more powerful flares, CMEs and other solar events still to come.

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