Amid the smoking ruins of Vladimir Putin’s imperial venture into the Middle East, there lies a new opportunity — the chance to shut Russia out of the region and hobble its klepto-strategy elsewhere, particularly Africa.
The naval and air facilities it has been using were authorized by Bashar al-Assad’s bloody regime. While the precise status of Russian forces inside the country is uncertain (some are reportedly still there, albeit hunkered down against possible attack), it’s beyond question that a new government can send them home, never to return.
The payback from such a policy could be enormous, in several respects.
Russian naval port facilities at Tartus allow the Kremlin to exercise strategic reach across the Mediterranean. Its importance has greatly increased since Turkey closed the Straits to warships leaving and entering the Black Sea at the start of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine. Without Tartus, the Mediterranean can only be reached using Russian ports in the Baltic or Barents seas, These are a very long way away.
There is more. The large Russian air base at Hemeimeem operates not only as a means to dominate Syria’s skies but also as a gateway to the Kremlin’s operations across Africa, especially in Libya, the Central African Republic, and Sudan. Once again, it would be far more difficult to maintain Russian muscle-for-money operations in Africa without the Syrian assets.
There is another potential reward. Western intelligence agencies must seek access to the old regime’s files, which are a potential treasure trove, particularly as opposition forces also “stormed” the Iranian embassy in Damascus. As former National Security Advisor John Bolton has said, it will be interesting to see what the files reveal.
Although the Biden administration is “closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners,” this situation requires action. If the US government moves quickly in conjunction with European allies and Arab partners, they can help to shape events against Iran, Russia, and ISIS. But all shaping activities are predicated on making a deal with the new leaders of Syria.
The main Syrian rebel group, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or Organization for the Liberation of the Levant) led most military operations that toppled the Assad regime. HTS appears poised to resolve the Syrian civil war and will need external assistance in rebuilding a country utterly shattered by 13 years of war.
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Abu Mohammed al-Julani (his real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa), the HTS leader, has signaled he does not want vengeance and has criticized Iran for its involvement in his country. One Free Syrian Army officer echoed similar sentiments in an interview, stating: “In the past, we have fought ISIS and defeated it. Extremism in Syria is a foreign import, and we as Syrians don’t want foreign interference in our country,” adding, “We are open to friendship with everyone in the region – including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a great deal.”
Clearly there are extreme Islamists, and others present in Syria who would not accept this. But that’s the point — the situation is extremely fluid and now is the moment to make the most of it.
Regardless of any other policy objective, HTS must be removed from the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. Although the organization is descended from the al-Nusrah Front (which was allied to al-Qaeda), they merged with several other armed factions in 2017. According to National Public Radio, they have publicly disavowed international terrorism, are presenting a more moderate face, have no plans to apply Sharia law, and are collaborating with other armed factions. Other factions have cooperated with them in the HTS-led Administration of Military Operations. Any political solution in Syria must include them.
The future pathway for Syria must be based on United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, which calls for UN-supervised free and fair elections with a Syrian-led political transition within 18 months. The world should work with the emerging regime to ensure all Syrians are included in the solution with rights assured.
There is much gloom in the commentary about Syria’s future, a sad echo of Western disappointment in Libya and elsewhere in the early part of the century. But there are strategic gains tantalizingly within reach. Quite apart from the opportunity to damage Russia’s dangerous colonial projects, we could see Turkey benefiting as 3 million Syrian refugees who have temporary protection status return home, a setback for Iran’s regional ambition, an end to the ISIS presence and a halt to the old regime’s noxious involvement in Captagon drug smuggling.
A stable Syria that shuns terrorism and war is a prize worth the struggle. As Shakespeare might have put it, Out of this nettle, chaos, we pluck this flower, opportunity.
G. Alexander (Alex) Crowther, PhD, is a Non-resident Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at theCenter for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He has published in a variety of formats and locations since 2005, mainly on cyber and European security issues.
Lieutenant Colonel Jahara ‘Franky’ Matisek, PhD, (@JaharaMatisek) is amilitary professor in the national security affairs department at the US Naval War College, fellow at the EuropeanResilience Initiative Center, and fellow at thePayne Institute for Public Policy. He has published two books and over one-hundred articles on strategy and warfare.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the Department of the Air Force, US Naval War College, Department of Defense, or the US Government. This article was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-20-1-0277.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Date: November 19, 2024
Time: 10:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT
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Europe's Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.
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