By Yao Bowen
The recent strengthening of the alliance between Russia and North Korea marks an unusual convergence of military and political interests. With reports of North Korean soldiers supporting Russia in the Ukraine war, the alliance has significant implications for regional and global geopolitical dynamics. For China, the Russia–North Korea alignment has some advantages but also presents has risks, reminiscent of its experience in the Cold War.
China remains cautious about alliances, a stance it has maintained throughout the post-Cold War era. North Korea is China’s only treaty ally, though senior Chinese officials have declared the relationship between Beijing and Moscow as one that has ‘no limits’ in the lead up to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Historical parallels, particularly with the Korean War, reveal much about China’s current strategy. In the 1950s, the Soviet Union and North Korea initiated the Korean War without consulting China, drawing Beijing into a costly conflict to defend its borders and strategic interests.
Two key differences define the present situation. First, the Korean War unfolded on China’s doorstep and necessitated its direct intervention, while the geographical distance of the Ukraine war reduces the urgency of Chinese involvement. Second, China no longer relies economically or militarily on Russia. Instead, Moscow seeks Beijing’s support, giving China greater manoeuvring room to prioritise its national interests without being ensnared in conflicts that could jeopardise its global interests.
China’s relationship with North Korea remains a complex and often fraught issue. While state media typically steers clear of criticising Pyongyang, academic circles in China openly discuss the country’s policy towards its unpredictable neighbour. Some scholars have advocated for a reassessment of Beijing’s stance on Pyongyang, warning against the risks of close alignmentwith North Korea.
These debates highlight the ongoing tension between China’s historical and ideological connections to Pyongyang and its pragmatic focus on national interests. This delicate balancing act is evident in China’s restrained response to the deepening Russia–North Korea alliance, with Beijing carefully avoiding moves that might provoke Western retaliation or disrupt vital economic ties.
The Russia–North Korea partnership presents both opportunities and challenges for China. On the one hand, it could divert US attention and resources from regions like the South China Sea and Taiwan. On the other hand, deeper entanglement in the Russia–North Korea alliance risks destabilising regional stability and damaging China’s international image, especially if the West intensifies scrutiny or escalates military its posture towards Russia.
Lessons from the Korean War continue to shape China’s diplomatic strategy. Stalin’s unilateral decision to support North Korea in the 1950s showcased the dangers of asymmetrical alliances, where China bore disproportionate costs. Today’s alliance dynamics underscore the importance Beijing places on maintaining agency in decision-making. Transparent and reciprocal partnerships are essential to avoid being dragged into conflicts that do not serve China’s strategic goals.
China’s historical experience with Taiwan also informs Beijing’s restrained stance. The outbreak of the Korean War prompted the United States to include Taiwan under its defence umbrella, thwarting China’s ambitions to reunify the island. This historical episode heightens Beijing’s aversion to direct confrontation with the United States and its preference for maintaining stability to focus on long-term economic growth.
Despite its wariness, China’s tacit support for North Korea and Russia stems from shared opposition to Western hegemony although Beijing’s involvement remains carefully calibrated to align with its economic and political priorities. This pragmatic approach helps China navigate the complexities of its relationships without succumbing to ideological pressure.
Growing Russia–North Korea ties could, however, destabilise Northeast Asia, a region where China has a most significant stake. An emboldened North Korea, backed by Russia, could provoke regional tensions, undermining China’s efforts to maintain a stable environment for economic development. And aligning too closely with international pariahs risks alienating China’s partners in Europe and Southeast Asia, complicating its bid to position itself as a global leader.
Recent diplomatic engagements illustrate China’s nuanced stance. During the November 2024 G20 sideline meeting with US President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that China will not tolerate conflict on the Korean Peninsula and will not remain idle if its strategic security and core interests are under threat. This assertion underscores China’s view of the Korean Peninsula as a core interest, and explains its cautious approach to the Russia–North Korea alliance.
China’s delicate balancing act highlights the challenges of managing historical alliances in a modern context. By drawing on lessons learnt from the Korean War, China seeks to avoid the pitfalls of asymmetric dependence while prioritising its long-term ambitions. Its careful diplomacy aims to harness the strategic advantages of its partnerships without being drawn into a costly confrontation. Historical experience during the Cold War reminds China of the risks inherent in ideological alliances and the need for a pragmatic approach to secure its future on the global stage.
About the author: Yao Bowen is PhD Candidate at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum