By Linas Kojala
(FPRI) — In October 2024, Lithuania’s opposition Social Democratic Party (LSDP) emerged victorious in the parliamentary elections, defeating the center-right Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (HU-LCD), which had been in power since 2020. The Social Democrats secured 52 seats, while the HU-LCD won 28. Other parties included the nationalist-populist Dawn of Nemunas, with 20 seats, and the Democratic Union “For Lithuania” (DVSL) with 14. The Social Democrats formed a coalition with DVSL and Dawn of Nemunas, achieving a commanding majority with 86 out of 141 seats.
This outcome aligned with Lithuania’s political tradition of not reelecting the same government since independence in 1990. During the campaign, the Social Democrats emphasized their opposition to forming a grand coalition with the center-right, despite HU-LCD leaders expressing openness to such an arrangement.
On November 21, Gintautas Paluckas was appointed Prime Minister after Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, the leader of the Social Democrats, chose to remain in her European Parliament role instead of pursuing the position of Prime Minister, despite previously pledging to assume full responsibility for the government if elected. Paluckas, who has served as a member of Parliament since 2020 and as Deputy Mayor of Vilnius, led the Social Democratic Party from 2017 to 2021.
The Social Democrats’ campaign largely focused on domestic issues, including combating the rising cost of living, fighting poverty, improving healthcare access, and ensuring a dignified life for citizens. They also highlighted the importance of preparing for potential crises, strengthening national defenses, and reinforcing Lithuania’s European and transatlantic partnerships. Education, which has faced challenges in recent years, was also a major theme.
The newly formed ruling coalition immediately faced criticism due to accusations of anti-Semitic statements against Remigijus Žemaitaitis, leader of the Dawn of the Nemunas party. Although Žemaitaitis denied the charges, the Lithuanian Constitutional Court ruled earlier this year that his comments about Jewish people incited hatred and violated the constitution, as well as breached his oath of office. In response, Paluckas assured the public that the government would not tolerate any anti-Semitic rhetoric or actions. Meanwhile, President Nausėda announced that members of Žemaitaitis’ party would not be appointed to the government, leaving the possibility for technocratic appointments only.
Future of Foreign and Security Policy
While national security and foreign affairs were not central issues during the election campaign, as major parties broadly agreed on supporting Lithuania’s NATO and EU membership, there is little expectation of change in Lithuania’s foreign and security policy. Public opinion strongly supports these alliances, and the government is expected to continue its robust stance in defense matters and international relations.
The new government plans to allocate at least 3% of GDP to defense in 2025, with an aim of reaching 3.5% in the near future. Additional spending is needed to prepare the necessary infrastructure to host a full German brigade by 2027 and form a national division by 2030. Dovilė Šakalienė, the Social Democratic choice for defense minister, is strongly committed to these goals. Kęstutis Budrys, the designated foreign minister and current national security advisor to President Nausėda, will likely strengthen coordination between the presidency and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
One area of divergence between President Nausėda and outgoing foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis was their approach to China. In 2021, Lithuania’s decision to open a Taiwanese representative office resulted in a severe response from China, including recalling its ambassador and imposing trade sanctions. While President Nausėda has advocated for restoring diplomatic relations with China, he insists this must occur without yielding to Beijing’s demands. Prime Minister Paluckas shares this stance; although, a significant breakthrough in relations is unlikely without major concessions from Lithuania, especially given China’s firm position. According to Budrys, the ball is in China’s court to improve the bilateral relationship.
Lithuanians have closely followed the US presidential election, with polls showing a strong preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, likely due to Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO. While concerns remain about continued military support for Ukraine and NATO obligations under a potential second Trump administration, past experiences indicate that Lithuania’s strategic alignment with NATO and Ukraine will remain intact.
To maintain good relations with Trump, Lithuania is emphasizing that it is surpassing NATO defense spending requirements, taking a strong stance on China, and continuing to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US through its national LNG terminal. Lithuania is also in consideration to increase these imports. In a pre-election interview, Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, underscored Lithuania’s energy policy just before the presidential election, emphasizing the importance of closer energy ties.
In conclusion, while domestic politics in Lithuania have shifted with the center-left forces now in power, foreign policy is expected to remain largely unchanged. Lithuania will continue to align with NATO and the EU, support Ukraine, and take a firm stance on China. However, challenges may emerge from a potential second Trump administration, particularly regarding military support for Ukraine and NATO obligations. A recent poll in the US offers some reassurance, as 54% of Americans say they support defending Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia if Russia were to attack—a figure that has remained steady over the years.
One major event on the horizon to address these challenges is the tenth Vilnius Foreign and Security Policy Conference on December 10, 2024, organized by the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Center) in Vilnius. The conference will focus on critical security and foreign policy issues, bringing together international leaders, newly appointed government officials, and experts to discuss the future of NATO, regional security, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The Foreign Policy Research Institute will partner with the event, broadcasting the discussions via social media platforms. Register to attend virtually.
About the author: Linas Kojala is a Non-Resident Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He is the Director of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Center), a think tank in Vilnius, Lithuania, and Lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.
Source: This article was published by FPRI