After the Bucs’ 26-23 overtime win over the Panthers in Week 13, rookie running back Bucky Irving found himself closing in on the franchise’s first 1,000-yard rushing season since Doug Martin’s in 2015. With five games left to play, he only needed 268 more yards to break 1,000 – an average of 53.6 yards per game.
Unfortunately for Irving, the outlook this week isn’t as promising as it was a week ago. After coming into the Bucs’ Week 14 game against the Raiders with a hip injury that saw him with a “questionable” tag on the injury report, Irving had his back tighten up early in Sunday’s game.
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today
The team was understandably cautious about that injury and with Rachaad White leading the way and Sean Tucker chipping in with a big run of his own late in the game, the Bucs were able to cope without their star rookie running back. Tampa Bay went on to win 28-13 and claim first place in the NFC South.
Still, Irving had just four carries for three yards on the day, which hurt his quest to make history. He now has 735 yards this season and needs 265 over the final four games to reach 1,000 for the season. That’s an average of 66.3 yards per game, which is 9.8 more yards per game than he is currently averaging this season.
He came into Sunday’s game averaging 61.0 yards per game, so the 3-yard performance obviously hurt his season average. But his health the rest of the way may determine how likely he is to become the franchise’s ninth-ever 1,000-yard rusher. On Monday, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles essentially said the team will be taking it day by day with Irving.
“It’s tightened up,” Bowles said. “We have to see how we feel. If he can get it loosened up, he should be okay. If not, we’ll see how the week goes.”
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles says that Bucky Irving's back tightened up. They have to see how he feels. If they can get it loosened up, he'll be okay. They'll see how the week goes.
— PewterReport 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) December 9, 2024
Bucs’ Schedule Appears Favorable For A Fully Healthy Bucky Irving
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
If Bucky Irving can get back to feeling 100% or close to it, he still has a good shot at breaking the 1,000-yard mark. Because a healthy Irving is sure to get plenty of opportunities, plus the Bucs’ 8th-ranked rushing attack will be coming up against some defenses that struggle with the ground game.
This Sunday’s game against the Chargers marks the only one out of the team’s remaining four games where it’ll see a defense ranked in the top half of the league against the run. Los Angeles is currently 14th, allowing an average of 117.6 rushing yards per game. In Sunday night’s narrow loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers allowed only 96 rushing yards on 25 carries (3.8 avg.). Isiah Pacheco led the way with 55 yards on 14 carries (3.9 avg.).
But after their Week 15 matchup with the Chargers, the Bucs finish out the season with three straight games against teams ranked 25th or lower against the run. In Week 16, they’ll face a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th thanks to allowing an average of 141.9 yards per game. Dallas did only allow 74 rushing yards on 19 carries (3.9 avg.) in their loss to the Bengals on Monday Night Football, but Cincinnati is a passing-based offense and Chase Brown did average 4.1 yards per carry, going for 58 yards on 14 carries.
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today
Irving and the Bucs will then see the Panthers again in Week 17, this time at Raymond James Stadium. Carolina is dead-last against the run, allowing 170.1 yards per game. Of course, Irving just carved up that Panthers defense two weeks ago, running for a career-high 152 yards.
Depending on how the next two weeks go and how healthy the rookie can get for those games, another big performance against Carolina could be the one that gets him over the 1,000-yard mark.
And to close out the season, Tampa Bay hosts New Orleans and its 25th-ranked run defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 134.2 yards per game on the ground, and Irving had one of his better games against them back in October.
Rachaad White missed that game, but Sean Tucker was actually the one to break out that day for an NFC Offensive Player of the Week-winning performance. It might’ve been lost in Tucker’s big game, but Irving also ran 14 times for 81 yards and a touchdown (5.8 avg.).
So, if Bucky Irving can get his back to loosen up and get healthy for the Bucs’ stretch run, he’ll still have a shot at being the franchise’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015.