No fan really wants to hear that his or her team has been eliminated from the playoffs, especially with four or more games remaining in the season. Once that point is reached, there are very few options other than to focus on the development of young players on the roster, mock drafts, or playing ‘spoiler’ to the playoff hopes of hated rivals.
Yet, fans of six AFC teams and one NFC team have already had to confront that sad reality for the ‘24 season.
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The only NFC team that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs is the NY Giants, who have pretty much locked up last place in the NFC East and are currently positioned to pick first overall in the 2025 draft.
Wildcard Competition
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With only one NFC team actually out of the running, there are a lot of teams in competition for playoff seedings in the NFC, and an incredible range of possible outcomes. Two teams — the Lions and Eagles — have already locked in playoff spots, but none of the seven seedings has yet been decided.
In fact, even three of the four division winners are still realistically in doubt. The Vikings, for instance, are just a game behind the Lions, while only two games separate the top-3 teams in the NFC South. It’s even more competitive in the NFC West, where the 4th place team is only two games behind the 1st place team.
This complicates any effort to project the potential seeding scenarios since a changed outcome in a single game can lead to a changed outcome with respect to a division winner, and the resulting potential flow-on effect on wildcard seedings and tie-breaker scenarios can be hugely important.
For example, the Commanders hold a clear tie breaker advantage over the Cardinals in the NFC West, while Washington’s tie-breakers against the other teams in the division are less certain and partly dependent on future game outcomes.
When it comes to the NFC South, potential upcoming wins in Weeks 15 & 17 could give Washington tie break advantages over the Saints and Falcons, but the Commanders are at a disadvantage in any 2-team tie-breaker with the Buccaneers (Wk 1).
Tie Breakers for non-division opponents
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_**Two Clubs**_
* _**Head-to-head, if applicable.**_
* _**Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.**_
* _**Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.**_
* _**Strength of victory in all games.**_
* _Strength of schedule in all games._
* _Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games._
* _Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games._
* _Best net points in conference games._
* _Best net points in all games._
* _Best net touchdowns in all games._
* _Coin toss._
_**Three or More Clubs**_
_(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)_
_Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants._
* _**Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)**_
* _**Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.**_
* _**Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.**_
* _**Strength of victory in all games.**_
* _Strength of schedule in all games._
* _Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games._
* _Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games._
* _Best net points in conference games._
* _Best net points in all games._
* _Best net touchdowns in all games._
* _Coin toss_
The most critical tie-breakers are (a) head-to-head competition, (b) W-L percentage within the NFC, (c) W-L percentage in common games. Tie breakers rarely go beyond these three criteria.
The problem with projecting playoff seedings a month or more before the end of the season is that it’s impossible to predict with any certainty the outcome of 16 games per week, and nearly as tough to predict end-of-season tie-breakers with accuracy.
#### An exception — the Green Bay Packers
There are, of course, some exceptions. For example, Washington is currently one game behind the Packers in the standings. To end up in a 2-team tie for playoff consideration, both teams would (obviously) need to end up with identical overall records.
* Since the Commanders and Packers did not play each other in the regular season, the first tie breaker — head-to-head competition — does not apply.
* Washington is currently 5-3 vs NFC opponents; Green Bay is 4-4.
* Both WAS and GB have only NFC opponents remaining. In _any_ scenario where the Packers and Commanders end up tied at the end of the season, the Packers’ W-L percentage vs the conference would be 2 games worse than Washington’s, giving the Commanders the tie breaking advantage. It doesn’t matter _which_ games are won or lost, the math works out the same in every case of a 2-team tie between the Packers and Commanders.
### What about winning the NFC East championship?
While it is still mathematically possible for Washington to win the NFC East title, it seems too impractical to discuss at the moment.
If Washington beats the Saints this week and Philly loses to the Steelers — _**and then**_ Washington beats the Eagles in Landover next week — then we can revisit the possibility of Washington winning the NFC East title. At that point, the Eagles would be 11-4 and the Commanders would be 10-5 with two games to play.
Unless we get there, I will continue to focus on what Washington needs to do to get into the playoffs as an NFC _wildcard_ team.
Getting into the playoffs assumes that Washington continues to win games
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Let’s be totally clear — while this article will discuss other teams winning and losing, the discussion _assumes_ that Washington will win two or three of its remaining games. _If the Commanders lose more than they win, they will_ _**not**_ _make the playoffs._
### Keep winning, and they’re in
You may have noticed that I just said that it is assumed that Washington will win “_two or three_ of its remaining games”; why not all four?
Because, _**if the Commanders win all four of their remaining games, they are guaranteed a playoff spot**_. No one can pass them. The only questions at that point would be whether they can win the NFC East title and how high a seeding they can earn, so there’s little to discuss with respect to the teams chasing them for the 7th seed.
In this article, all of the discussion of what other teams are doing assumes that Washington needs some ‘help’ because they finish with less than a perfect 4-0 record between now and Week 18.
The Competition for a wildcard seeding
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Without considering the Lions, who haven’t lost since Week 1 of the season, there are nine teams (including the Commanders) competing for the 3rd through 7th seedings in the NFC (5 playoff spots), which means that four of the teams in the chart below will miss out on the playoffs this year.
The third & fourth seeds will go to the division champions of the NFC West & South, while the 5th seed will go to an NFC North team.
Washington’s goal, unless it unexpectedly wins the NFC East, is to earn the 6th or 7th seed.
### The contenders
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**To earn the 6th seed**, Washington needs to win (at least) one more game than the Packers while staying ahead of the four non-division winners from the West and South. It’s really not more complicated than that.
If the Packers don’t lose more games than the Commanders between now and Week 18, then the focus will be on retaining the 7th seed by not having anyone catch Washington from behind.
Towards both ends, _**the Green Bay at Seattle game**_ this week is of extreme importance. Assuming that Washington takes care of business against the Saints:
* if the Packers lose, then Washington moves into the 6th seed with three games left to play
* if the Seahawks lose, then they would fall a game back of Washington, and potentially into a tie with the Rams for the NFCW lead if LA can beat SF.
If the Rams lose to the Niners, then Washington would open up a 2-game lead on both of them as they move to 7-7 on the season.
**With respect to the NFC South**, it is advantageous to the Commanders for the Buccaneers to win the division title since TB holds the tie-breaker advantage over Washington. The Commanders will have the opportunity to beat the Falcons in Week 17, thus gaining a tie-break advantage over Atlanta even while making it unlikely that it will ever be needed. Of course, they can pretty much eliminate the Saints as a playoff threat by beating them this Sunday in New Orleans.
Week 15 rooting guide
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#### **(7-6) Rams at (6-7) 49ers** (Thursday Night Football)
The best outcome here is a Niners win to move both NFC West teams to 7-7.
A win by the Rams here is not a tragedy, however, as the 2-team tie-breaker between Washington and LA would favor the Commanders (assuming Washington beats the Saints this week).
In the case of the Rams and Commanders both winning in Week 15, Washington’s record vs NFC opponents would be 6-3 while the Rams’ would be 5-5, giving the relevant tie-breaker to Washington. In any event **ROOT FOR THE SF 49ERS**.
#### **(3-10) Patriots at (6-7) Cardinals**
This is easy — an AFC over an NFC wildcard contender.
Even so, a win by the Cardinals here is not tragic since they would remain 2-games behind the Commanders assuming Washington beats the Saints — and Washington holds the 2-team head-to-head tie-break advantage over Arizona based on Washington’s Week 4 victory.
In effect, the Commanders currently have a practical 3-game lead over Arizona with 4 games to play. In any event **ROOT FOR THE NE PATRIOTS**.
#### **(7-6) Buccaneers at (8-5) Chargers**
Tampa Bay is in first place in the NFC South, and the Commanders should be happy for them to stay there since the Buccaneers hold the 2-team tie breaker advantage over Washington based on the Commanders’ loss in the Week 1 game at Tampa.
If the Chargers win, that’s not really tragic since Tampa, at 7-7, would be 2 games behind Washington (but the tie-breaker would make that only a _practical one-game_ advantage).
The Falcons will win the South division if TB and Atlanta end up at the top with identical records because the Bucs got swept by the Dirty Birds in the regular season, but Washington will have the opportunity to add a loss to Atlanta’s record in Week 17. In any event **ROOT FOR THE LA CHARGERS**.
#### **(9-4) Packers at (8-5) Seahawks**
A loss by the Packers here (combined with the Commanders beating the Saints) would see Green Bay and Washington swapping places in the playoff seeding, which is what we’re rooting for. At the end of Week 15, both teams would be 9-5 and Washington would hold the 6th seed while Green Bay would hold the 7th.
Also, a win for the Seahawks should be seen as positive for the Commanders since Seattle is leading the West division and not currently competing for a wildcard spot. The only way the Seahawks drop out of the division lead is by losing at least one game more than the Rams or two more games than the Cardinals or Niners.
If the Packers win this week, though, it won’t be tragic since Washington would remain in the 7th seed while Seattle would fall a game behind Washington in overall record. In any event **ROOT FOR THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS**.
#### **(6-7) Falcons at (2-11) Raiders** (Monday Night Football)
Easy call here; we want the AFC team to win.
Still, a loss by the Raiders is not tragic since the Falcons, at 7-7, would be still be 2 games behind the Commanders (assuming Washington beats the Saints), with Atlanta traveling to Landover in Week 17 to play Washington. In any event **ROOT FOR THE LV RAIDERS**.