Presented by EFPIA
Brussels Playbook
By EDDY WAX
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. This is a definitely-not-hungover Eddy Wax, recovering from our black-tie event last night where we unveiled POLITICO’s list of the 28 most powerful people in Europe for the coming year.
The most influential person in Europe is … Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She took her Brothers of Italy party, with its neo-fascist roots, from the political fringes into power. Few predicted she would last long, but over the past two years Meloni consolidated her government as one of the most stable in postwar Italy. She is the forefront of a wave that is dragging European politics toward the far right — but has still managed to establish herself as a figure with whom Brussels can do business. And she now stands poised to become Europe’s main bridge to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
Of course, Meloni also routinely uses the courts to try to silence critics, filing defamation suits against figures ranging from a rockstar to a teacher, going after newspapers and journalists at Italy’s state broadcaster, hitting out at the Italian judges who have ruled some of her government’s policies to be illegal, and targeting minority groups like the LGBTQ+ community.
Reminder: The annual POLITICO 28 isn’t a popularity contest, an award, an accolade or an endorsement. Love them or loathe them, these are the 28 people who we predict will wield the most power in Europe in 2025. And as has always been the case, the powerful aren’t necessarily using their power for good. But that message didn’t got through to everyone, with Playbook overhearing some grumblings of outrage at last night’s event, as one guest accused us of making a grave error which gives a huge gift to the far right. Read more on our methodology here.
**A message from EFPIA: Imagine if European patients are the first to access new treatments developed in Europe. Being a globally competitive location for research, development and manufacturing means investing in health innovation. It’s an investment that benefits patients, leading to a healthier and more competitive and secure Europe.**
Stay humble: Of course, not all predictions made at this annual event come true. For instance, Thierry Breton told us a year ago that he saw himself as a backup plan to Ursula von der Leyen. That has aged about as well as a drunken tweet.
DRIVING THE DAY: DICTATOR DOMINOS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER WAITS FOR HER MOMENT: First Assad, next Lukashenko? At last night’s POLITICO 28 event, the exiled opposition leader of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on her fellow citizens to be ready to hit the streets at the right moment to topple dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who will hold yet another rigged election next month.
Finger on the trigger: “It’s not time for Belarusian people to go to the streets to uprise visibly because, you know, repressions are too high,” Tsikhanouskaya told our Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini last night. “I really want people to be ready to use a real moment of opportunity to be on the streets and dismantle this regime … But we have to feel this trigger, this moment, when we really can dismantle it.”
Seize your chance: Lukashenko, who’s been in power for as long as your Playbook author has been alive, will inevitably “win” the presidential poll in January. He’s already cracking down hard on pro-democracy campaigners ahead of the election. Mass protests, and brutal reprisals, followed the last presidential vote — deemed illegitimate by the EU — in 2020. “It’s such a luxury not knowing who will be your next president,” Tsikhanouskaya said dryly, to dark laughter and applause.
“I don’t know if he’s alive.” Tsikhanouskaya, a self-described “housewife,” was thrust into front-line politics when her husband, the pro-democracy activist Sergei Tikhanovsky, was arrested and imprisoned soon after announcing he’d contest the 2020 election. Last night, she said she didn’t know whether Sergei was still alive, or if he may have suffered a similar fate to Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny, who died an arctic penal colony earlier this year. “Maybe it sounds strange, but I think pain is my biggest motivator,” Tsikhanouskaya said.
Unravelling like a bowtie: Still, Tsikhanouskaya is hopeful. “Dictators are not invincible, they are very fragile, including Lukashenko,” she told the room of hundreds of tuxedoed guests, many of whose minds will have turned at that moment to Syria’s deposed dictator Bashar Assad — like Lukashenko, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I believe in democracy. Democracy has teeth. But you have to have courage to use all your instruments, to use all your tools, to fight dictators,” Tsikhanouskaya said.
VLADIMIR PUPIL: How to fight dictators was a theme of last night’s event. The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, interviewed by my fellow Playbooker Sarah Wheaton, likened dealing with Putin and his ilk to raising a child: “Anyone who has children … if you don’t follow your words, you’re going to have more of [what you didn’t want].”
Kallas-nikov: She used that argument as she doubled down on her maxim that Ukraine must win and Russia must lose the war, projecting bemusement that her clarion call for Kyiv’s military victory could be considered newsworthy. “How can you really argue with that goal? Is somebody really saying that Russia should win this war?” she asked.
Quick sidebar: That Ukraine should win the war isn’t quite the radically new stance some are presenting it as. Iratxe García, the leader of the Socialists in the European Parliament, said so, for example, when meeting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv Tuesday, as well as in 2023.
Russia’s spider’s web: Kallas, whom some accuse of focusing on Russia’s brutal aggression against Ukraine to the exclusion of other topics, argued that the toppling of the Assad regime in Syria showed the merits of that level of focus. “If you handle Russia then you could solve so many issues at the same time,” she said, listing Russia’s malign influence in Ukraine, Georgia, Africa, Iran and the Middle East.
TikTok is a joke: Kallas also pointed to Romania and warned that Russia has “cracked the code” on using cutting-edge tech to influence elections and destroy trust in democracy. She scored points in the room when she noted that the POLITICO event’s afterparty was sponsored by TikTok. (As Sarah pointed out, we’re editorially independent.)
Caddie Kallas: Sarah asked Kallas who her closest contact in Trump’s orbit is. “I play golf actually,” the high representative parried back. “My handicap was quite good.” Quick, send in the bulldozers and turn the EEAS into a golf course!
One for the Christmas stocking: Kallas — a self-described “total bookworm” — had this book tip: “Very Bad People” by Patrick Alley, one of the founders of anti-corruption organization Global Witness.
€1B FOR DEFENSE: In another on-stage interview last night, European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño said she expects to officially announce a €1 billion program to support small- and medium-sized businesses operating in security and defense. This comes even as the EIB acknowledges it is “not a defense ministry,” she told Aitor Hernández-Morales.
EU INSTITUTIONS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
CHRISTMAS PRESENT FOR EU STAFF: EU officials in Belgium and Luxembourg are looking forward to an over 8 percent salary rise, according to information sent to Commission staff. EU civil servants will get a 4.1 percent bump backdated to July, which comes on top of a 3 percent boost they got in June. They will also get 1.2 percent more next April.
Dinner’s on me: “The combined effect of these updates will be positive for all staff members in Brussels and Luxembourg,” the Commission wrote to officials in an internal note seen by Playbook.
How it compares: For regular Belgian employees, salaries rise roughly in line with inflation. This year, the expectation is of a 3.3 percent bump.
The Santa Commission: “We are not complaining,” said Cristiano Sebastiani, president of the Renouveau et Démocratie Union. “We are just ensuring the parallelism with the salaries of our civil service in the member states,” he said. The EU calculates salary adjustments for its staff around the EU using a metric based on national civil service salaries and the local cost of living.
Commission’s view: Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari said EU officials’ pension contributions will also increase, meaning the 4.1 percent Christmas rise won’t be so high; he also said that over the past two decades EU staffers’ “real purchasing power” has dropped by almost 13 percent and that the June rise of 3 percent took place amid “high inflation levels” in Belgium and Luxembourg late last year.
4 NEW PARLIAMENT COMMITTEES: Top MEPs will today sign off on four new parliamentary committees, Max Griera and Josh Posaner report. Two of them are upgrades, turning the junior health and defense committees into fully fledged ones. The other two are brand new special committees that will draw up recommendations on interference in democracy and the housing crisis. Defense and Health Care Pro subscribers can read about the committees’ mandates here.
POLISH PRESIDENCY GOES ONLINE: With the Polish Council presidency just around the corner, Poland launched its official website on Tuesday. The logo was designed by none other than Jerzy Janiszewski, creator of the Solidarnošć/Solidarity symbol. You can also follow the Poles on X, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube and even Flickr — but not on Bluesky (yet). The presidency also links out to accounts on Instagram and Threads, but Playbook got an error message for those accounts this morning.
WAR REPORTS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
US AID FOR KYIV: The U.S. Treasury has given $20 billion to Ukraine, funded by profits from frozen Russian assets. The money, administered through the World Bank, can’t be used for the military but will help provide Ukraine “the resources it needs to sustain emergency services, hospitals, and other foundations of its brave resistance,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. Bloomberg reports the Biden administration is also considering ramming through new Russian oil sanctions before Trump returns to the White House next month.
Fico backs China-Brazil “peace plan” for Ukraine: Slovak PM Robert Fico said he “supports” the joint proposal drawn up by Brasília and Beijing for peace talks involving both Russia and Ukraine. On a visit to Brazil, Fico said: “I am convinced that Brazil, together with China, but also other major countries, will play an extremely important role and military operations on the territory of Ukraine will be stopped,” according to Slovak news agency TASR.
Reminder:Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lambasted the proposal, saying Brazil and China consulted Moscow but not Kyiv when drawing up the plan.
Calling in the cavalry: Russia is preparing to deploy its new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles in Belarus in 2025, Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday.
AFTER ASSAD: Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has recently undergone a makeover, going from sporting a long, unkempt beard and a style of turban favored by jihadis to green fatigues or preppy blazers and chinos with neatly trimmed facial hair. But does this change in appearance signal a shift in ideology — or should Syrians be worried that someone who once made a pledge of allegiance to al Qaeda is now the most powerful man in their country? Jamie Dettmer reads the runes.
MORE FALLOUT: Israel conducted at least 350 airstrikes in the past 48 hours on targets in Syria as its military seeks to neutralize potential threats following Assad’s ouster. Meanwhile, Russian vessels have deserted the Tartus naval base. More here.
IN OTHER NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
HAPPENING TODAY — SCHOLZ CONFIDENCE VOTE: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set today to submit a request to parliament to hold a vote of confidence, a step required to hold a federal election. Reuters has more.
WHAT’S NEW IN MERCOSUR: POLITICO’s top-notch trade team has gone through the trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur bloc and put together a list of all the new elements.
Lula in intensive care: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is recovering “well” in intensive care after undergoing emergency surgery for a brain bleed, according to his personal doctor. The Guardian has more.
EXIT READ: U.S. Ambassador Mark Gitenstein and former European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová have written a blog post together on two years of transatlantic cooperation on media freedom.
TRUMP’S NEW ENVOYS: Donald Trump has tapped Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Court TV anchor and Fox News host who was engaged to Donald Trump Jr., as the next U.S. ambassador to Greece. Trump also announced he’d picked private equity executive Tom Barrack, a longtime ally who faced legal scrutiny for his work on behalf of the United Arab Emirates, as the next U.S. ambassador to Turkey.
(Not) feeling the Bern : U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, a former presidential candidate, said his term starting in January would likely be his last in an interview with POLITICO.
AGENDA Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
— College of Commissioners meets, and is expected adopt a communication on countering hybrid threats from the weaponization of migration and strengthening security at the EU’s external borders. College meeting followed by readout and press conference by European Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen.
— Parliament President Roberta Metsola receives Moldova’s President Maia Sandu at 3:30 p.m. … Metsola presides over the Parliament’s Conference of Presidents at 5 p.m., with European Council President António Costa to attend.
— EU ambassadors meet in Coreper II at 9:30 a.m.Agenda.
— Deputy ambassadors meet in Coreper I at 9:30 a.m. Agenda.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the European Trade Union Confederation’s executive committee meeting.
— António Costa also participates in the ETUC meeting at 11 a.m.; meets Moldova’s President Maia Sandu at 7:30 p.m.
— Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera meets Andrzej Domański, Poland’s finance minister.
— Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen meets Maia Sandu.
— Youth Commissioner Glenn Micallef receives Barbara Nowacka, Poland’s minister of national education.
— European Economic and Social Committee President Oliver Röpke and European Parliament Vice President Katarina Barley will mark the 20th anniversary of the Liaison Group.
— German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivers the opening speech. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal attends.
BRUSSELS CORNER Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
WEATHER: High of 4C, cloudy.
COMPARE AND CONTRAST … Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s office to the new Berlaymont digs of his nominee as European commissioner, Magnus Brunner. Look here. You don’t come to Brussels for the glamor.
NEW APPOINTMENT: Tomáš Kozák, a former Slovak ambassador in the Political and Security Committee who spent the last three years at the foreign ministry in Bratislava, is returning to Brussels. He is expected to be Slovakia’s ambassador to Belgium.
NEW JOBS IN PARLIAMENT: Thomas Shannon, from the European Trade Union Confederation, is joining the Left group as head of communications, starting Jan. 6. Sonja Giese will be his deputy, and Manus Carlisle returns to the group as press officer.
SPOTTED ON THE 38 BUS: Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister Georges Gilkinet — who also happens to be mobility minister — stuck in traffic, heading to Trône on Tuesday morning.
TOP VEGGIE RESTAURANTS: The 100 best vegetable restaurants in the world were revealed by We’re Smart on Tuesday and two Belgian restaurants have made their way into the top 10. Vrijmoed in Ghent came in fourth, while Humus x Hortense in Brussels landed in ninth place.
SPOTTED … at the POLITICO 28 gala dinner: EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño and Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who spoke at the event; European Commission Executive Vice Presidents Roxana Mînzatu and Stéphane Séjourné; Ambassadors Mark Gitenstein (U.S.), Haim Regev (Israel), Saurabh Kumar (India), Mohamed Al Sahlawi (UAE), Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby (U.K.), Philippe Léglise-Costa (France), Ailish Campbell (Canada), Vincenzo Celeste (Italy), Dan Neculăescu (Romania), Michal Komada (Slovakia), Edita Hrdá (Czechia), Roy Lee (Taipei) and Ioannis Vrailas (Greece); cabinet officials Björn Siebert, Bertrand L’Huillier, Antoine Guéry, Paul Moley, Alexandre Adam and Matthias Eichenlaub …
Wait, there are more … Rainer Rudolph from the Munich Security Conference; European Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly; Alliance of Democracies Foundation Executive Director Jonas Parello-Plesner; EEAS’ Stefano Sannino and David O’Sullivan; the European Parliament’s Delphine Colard, Jüri Laas and Mina Andreeva; the European Commission’s Eric Mamer, Florika Fink-Hooijer, Mario Nava, Arianna Podestà and Peter Stuckmann; NATO’s James Appathurai, Tarja Jaakola and Nicola de Santis; Giacomo Filibeck and Saar Van Bueren of PES; Alexandra Henman of the EPP …
And breathe … MEPs Giorgio Gori, Elena Donazzan, Dóra David, Christophe Grudler, Sigrid Friis, Morten Løkkegaard, Martin Hojsík, Irene Tinagli, Alessandra Moretti, Axel Voss, Anna Cavazzini, Benedetta Scuderi, Letizia Moratti, Antonio López-Istúriz White, Charlie Weimers, Susana Solís Pérez, Hannah Neumann, Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, Dan Nica, Raul de la Hoz, Pasquale Tridico, Roberts Zīle, Pilar del Castillo, Hermann Tertsch, Bogdan Rzońca, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Eva Maydell, Dimitris Tsiodras, Kristian Vigenin, Matej Tonin, Antonio Decaro and Valérie Hayer …
And again … Renault’s Luca de Meo; META’s Markus Reinisch; Teresa Carlson of General Catalyst; Nissan’s Guillaume Cartier; Ann Mettler of Breakthrough Energy; Frank Niederländer of BMW; FSG Global’s Sebastian Vos; CEFIC’s Marco Mensink; Google’s Karen Massin; TikTok’s Christine Grahn and Caroline Greer; Alessandro Gropelli of Connect Europe; Hans Hack of FTI; Stephan Schraff from Bayer; Mercedes-Benz Group’s Eckart Von Klaeden; Malte Lohan of AmCham EU; Microsoft’s Nanna-Louise Linde; ExxonMobil’s Philippe Ducom; Uber’s Leah Charpentier; Daniel Friedlander of CCIA; Vodafone’s Darren Ennis, Maude Lannom and Marta Gómez; Covington & Burling’s Johan Ysewyn; former Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya …
And last but certainly not least … Axel Springer’s Mathias Döpfner, Jan Bayer, Claudius Senst and Mark Dekan; WELT’s Jennifer Wilton; and POLITICO’s own Goli Sheikholeslami, John F. Harris, Jamil Anderlini, Kate Day, Alex Burns, Nicolas Barré, Gordon Repinski, Marion Solletty and many others.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Virginie Joron and Alma Lucía Ezcurra Almansa; former MEPs Theresa Griffin and Takis Hadjigeorgiou; Reuters’ Lili Bayer; Richard Bullard from Enterprise Mobility; writer Alex von Tunzelmann; President of the Press Club Brussels Alia Papageorgiou; WirtschaftsWoche’s Philip Kaleta; European Commission’s Pedro Chaves; The Washington Post’s Annabelle Timsit; former U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry; Susan Danger, former CEO of AmCHAM EU.
THANKS TO: Seb Starcevic, Elena Giordano, Max Griera, Sarah Wheaton, Carlo Martuscelli, Nicholas Vinocur, Jacopo Barigazzi, Camille Gijs, Playbook editor Alex Spence, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
**A message from EFPIA: With over 12,700 medicines and vaccines in development, there is great potential to improve preventative care and advance treatments to meet the needs of all patients. Vaccines in development could train the body to destroy cancer cells, improving survival rates for people living with colorectal cancer. Gene therapies could offer relief from symptoms in rare diseases like Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. New therapies could reverse Parkinson’s progression, improving people’s quality of life and helping them to live well for longer. In the context of continued global insecurity, European policymakers have a decision to make: do they want to be consumers of other regions’ innovation or attract investment and make research happen in Europe? Europe must act decisively by adopting a robust life sciences strategy. This includes strengthening IP protection, ensuring policy coherence, harmonising clinical trials and creating an agile regulatory system. Without these measures, Europe risks becoming a consumer rather than a producer of innovation.**
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