Twenty-four games into the 2023-24 NBA season, the Celtics boasted a 19-5 record, one of the league’s best offenses and a top-10 defense. That Boston team, of course, went on to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy six months later.
The 2024-25 Celtics now are 24 games into their regular-season schedule, currently enjoying a much-needed four-day layoff after playing five games in seven nights.
Their record: 19-5. Their offense: third in both points per game and offensive rating. Their defense: ninth in points allowed, 10th in defensive rating.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising for a team that returned nearly every player of consequence from its title-winning roster, but head coach Joe Mazzulla’s squad is off to a remarkably similar start in its bid to become the NBA’s first repeat champion in six years.
There have been some important deviations, however. As the Celtics await their return to action Thursday night against the Detroit Pistons at TD Garden, here’s a closer look at how these two-dozen matchups compare to the same stretch last season.
Results
Last season’s Celtics had an average point differential of plus-8.8 through 24 games. They lost three games by five points or fewer (including two in overtime) and two by double digits: a 10-point defeat at Indiana in the In-Season Tournament quarterfinals and a 17-point spanking in Orlando. Boston lost back-to-back games in early November and dropped two of three around Thanksgiving.
The Celtics’ five losses so far this season: by three to Indiana in OT, by six to Golden State, by one to Atlanta, by four to Cleveland and by six to Memphis. Their margin of victory is 9.4 points, and they’ve yet to lose consecutive games.
It’s difficult to compare strength of schedule at this early stage of the season, but last year’s team played 15 of its 24 games against eventual playoff teams and went 11-4 in those contests. The current Celtics have cleaned up against the dregs of a terrible Eastern Conference (8-0 against the bottom six teams in the standings), but 13 of their opponents thus far entered Tuesday with winning records. Boston went 9-4 in those games.
Offense
Boston’s offensive rating (121.0) and points-per-game average (120.1) are up from where they were at this point last season (119.1 and 117.8, respectively) despite the team’s field-goal percentage dipping from 47.8% to 45.7%.
Why? Because the Celtics have leaned even harder into Mazzulla Ball, the math- and trust-based strategy that covets 3-pointers and — knowing that Boston’s top eight rotation players all are capable 3-point shooters — empowers everyone to shoot them whenever they’re open.
The Celtics already attempted the most threes and fewest twos in the NBA last season, but they’re now chucking up the former at an even higher rate, with a remarkable 56.5% of their field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. (It was 48.1% at this time last year and dropped to 47.1% by season’s end.)
If that number holds, it would smash the current NBA record of 51.9% set by the 2018-19 Houston Rockets. No other team is above 48.1%, and most of the league is below 45%. The Celtics also are averaging six more 3-point attempts per game than any other team in NBA history.
The rest of the Celtics’ shooting numbers haven’t changed much from this same stretch last season: 3-point field-goal percentage up from 36.9% to 37.0%; free-throw percentage up from 80.2% to 80.5%; effective field-goal percentage down from 56.7% to 56.2%; true shooting percentage down from 60.0% to 59.6%.
Boston, MA - Nov. 25 - Jayson Tatum (0) of the Boston Celtics grabs a loose ball away from Kris Dunn (8) and Amir Coffey (7) of the LA Clippers during the second half of the NBA game at the TD Garden. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Boston, MA – Nov. 25 – Jayson Tatum (0) of the Boston Celtics grabs a loose ball away from Kris Dunn (8) and Amir Coffey (7) of the LA Clippers during the second half of the NBA game at the TD Garden. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Defense
Two weeks ago, Mazzulla bristled at a question about the Celtics’ defensive “issues,” noting that Boston’s defense was “statistically where it was last year at this point.” Comparing their current stats shows some slight regression from last season: The 2023-24 team’s defensive rating through 24 games was 110.2; they’re currently at 111.5. Their points allowed per game also is up a hair from 109.0 to 110.7.
These aren’t major shifts, though, and as mentioned, both marks still rank in the top 10. Last year’s Celtics finished the season with a defensive rating of 111.6.
Boston’s biggest defensive shortcoming to start the season was its rim protection, which took a tumble while top shot-blocker Kristaps Porzingis worked his way back from offseason leg surgery. It’s improved since his return, but opponents’ success rate on shots at the rim is 3.5 percentage points higher than it was last season, per Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics’ number of blocks per game also is down 14.3% after they led the league in that stat a year ago. Both of those metrics should stabilize as long as Porzingis stays healthy.
The Celtics’ net rating so far this season is third-best in the NBA behind Oklahoma City and Cleveland.
Health
The names haven’t changed. The only new addition who’s seen NBA minutes this season is first-round draft pick Baylor Scheierman, who’s spent most of his time in the G League.
The availability of those players has been more sporadic, however. Boston’s top eight players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Porzingis, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser) have missed a combined 39 games so far this season, with only Pritchard playing in every one.
Porzingis accounted for more than half of those absences (19 total), but the 20 missed games by non-Porzingis regulars are more than the entire top eight had sat out at this point last season (15). Brown didn’t hit his current total of five DNPs until mid-February.
The Celtics have had their entire roster available for just one half of one game this season. That they’re still winning nearly 80% of their games speaks to the depth of their roster and the development of vital bench players like Pritchard. The Sixth Man of the Year favorite has scored 19 or more points in six of his last seven games and could surpass his career high for steals by the All-Star break.
Several Boston starters also have diversified their games. White is attempting 9.1 threes per game (way up from his high-water mark of 6.8 last season) and making 39.0% of them. Brown has grown as a facilitator, on pace to set a personal best with 4.6 assists per game. Tatum is one of just two NBA players, along with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, leading his team in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game.
Outside of Porzingis’ procedure, the Celtics’ injuries all have been minor, with Mazzulla seemingly taking a cautious approach to ensure his roster is healthy come spring. If it is, it’s hard to envision anyone beating this team in a seven-game playoff series.