In September 2024 Iran announced the successful launch of its Chamran-1 research satellite into a 550-kms (340-mile) low earth orbit (LEO). This launch was carried out with the help of a Qaem-100 rocket system from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) launchpad in port city of Shahroud. The micro-satellite weighs 60 kgs, is powered by solar cell batteries and has a cold gas propulsion.
This launch was being seen as a technology demonstrator and the satellite’s primary mission objective was to test software and hardware to validate orbital manoeuvring technology to develop satellites capable of altering their orbit. The sub-mission of this satellite is to evaluate the cold gas propulsion subsystem in space systems and the performance of navigation and situation control subsystems. This research satellite was designed and developed by the Space Group of Iranian Electronics Industries (SAIran) in collaboration with the IRGC’s Aerospace Force.
Features of Qaem-100 space launch vehicle:
The Qaem-100 space launch vehicle (SLV) is Iran’s first three-stage, solid-fuel rocket system developed by the Aerospace Force of the IRGC. This same rocket was used to deliver the Soraya satellite in past which was placed into an orbit of 750 kms in just 11 minutes. This implies that the average velocity of the Qaem-100 SLV is around 1136 m/s and the Chamran-1 satellite was placed into the LEO in roughly 8 minutes. This kind of velocity achievement of the Qaem-100 solid-fuel engine could allow further development anti-satellite systems and missiles.
The Qaem-100’s three engines are made of composites and carbon fibre which reduces the overall weight to merely 18 kgs. The rocket’s first-stage engine, Rafe is said to produce a thrust of 68,000 kN. There are plans of further upgrades with advanced models like Qaem-105, Qaem-110, and Qaem-120 which will have more stages to send heavier satellites into higher orbits.
Chamran-1 as technology demonstrator:
The head of the Chamran-1 satellite development team believes that the launch of Chamran-1 will establish Iran as a major space power. As per him, this technology demonstration launch is important from two aspects- to acquire technology to adjust the initial trajectory of a satellite and to transfer any satellite from their initial orbits to a secondary or operational ones for development of satellite constellations. He emphasizes the role of Iran’s domestic sector and knowledge base for the development of domestically produced space thruster and propulsion systems.
After 40 days of launch, Chamran-1 had an altitude difference of 3 kms and a phase difference of one degree (120 kms) relative to its SLV. Thereafter, it performed manoeuvers to adjust its inclination, phase, and altitude, resulting in a change relative to the SLV, achieving a phase difference of 180 degrees and an altitude difference of 12 kms. On 1st November Chamran-1 completed a successful rendezvous with its target, achieving a phase difference accuracy of less than 0.05 degrees (4.5 kms distance).
Western concerns over Iran’s ICBM ambitions:
The above launch may not go down well with the western nations who often claim that Iran is using its satellite launch programs to mask the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, which could threaten both the Middle East and Europe. This year’s US intelligence community’s worldwide threat assessment states that Iran’s development of SLVs “would shorten the timeline” for Iran to develop an ICBM.
In counter, Iran says that its civilian space program is for peaceful according to UNSC resolutions. Iran is already among the world’s top 10 nations capable of developing and launching satellites inspite of being under crippling western sanctions for several years. Iran’s ally Russia has in the past placed Iranian remote sensing and imaging satellites into orbit. This test is being seen by the west as an improvement of Tehran’s ballistic missiles development capability as the UNSC sanctions have already expired last October.
Iran’s unveiling of the Jihad ballistic missile:
The western concern seemed relevant when in September 2024 only, Iran unveiled a new liquid-fuel ballistic missile named Jihad having an operational range of 1,000 kms during a military parade. This missile is said to have a high-explosive detachable warhead. Iranian leaders claim that its missile power is entirely meant for defence, and that Iran’s defence capabilities can’t be negotiated. This defence aspect seems hollow because Iran has attacked Israel and US bases in the past and has also provided missiles to its regional proxies for offensive attacks.
Specifications of the Jihad missile:
The Jihad missile is an optimized variant of the Qiam missile which was introduced in 2010, with an extension of range from 800-1000 kms equipped with a guided warhead. Qiam’s modified design having fin removal feature allowed it to be launched from various silos. Its further enhancements included the replacement of the standard triple-cone warhead with a detachable guided warhead to improve accuracy within 50 meters. In 2018 it underwent further modifications to enhance its flight profile with newly added small fins.
As per sources, the Jihad missile can carry a 600 kgs warhead and can achieve speeds of 8 Mach or beyond. It can also be fired twice simultaneously from a modified launch platform (transporter erector launcher), increasing its operational efficiency, despite the typical longer preparation time required for liquid-fuel missile launches. The refuelling time of Jihad has been estimated to be around 20 minutes. Some other reports suggest that the Jihad can be an anti-ship missile due to its design as the warhead module appears to have small conformal radio receivers so that it can be steered and quickly fast dived onto a target.
Hezbollah’s Qadr-1 attack on Israel:
Iran’s proxy Hezbollah was also in the news for its claims of attacking the Israeli Mossad headquarter in Tel Aviv on 25th September 2024 using a Qadr-1 ballistic missile. This strike marked the first time use of a long-range ballistic missile by Hezbollah to strike Tel Aviv. The Hezbollah claimed this attack as a revenge for the earlier pager and wireless communication device explosions which rocked Lebanon.
What we know about Qadr-1 missile?
Qadr-1 is a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) measuring between 15.5-16.58 meters in length with a diameter of 1.25 meters. It weighs between 15-17.5 tons, with a warhead weighing 700-1,000 kgs. It uses a combination of liquid and solid fuel with a ballistic trajectory. Its range varies between 1,350 kms to 1,950 kms. It was first used by Iran in 2015 and is a variant of Iran’s Shahab-3 missile, which Iranian aerospace engineers used in their space program. As per an analyst, Qadr-1 may have been an Iranian Fateh-110 missile originally before being modified by Hezbollah. The Hezbollah claims that it is a tactical surface-to-surface missile with high destructive capability.
Israeli counter-measures:
The impact of the Hezbollah’s Qadr-1 missile was negligible as the medium-range David’s Sling air-defence system successfully intercepted it. Further, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) fighter jets retaliated by targeting the Qadr-1 missile launcher responsible for the attack located in Nafakhiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. Israel also dismissed Hezbollah’s claim of targeting the Mossad headquarters, located north of Tel Aviv, as part of a “psychological warfare.”
On the contrary the Israeli air-defence and unprecedented counter-strikes and attacks on the Hezbollah’s communications devices, commanders and rocket stockpiles have created a deterrence as Hezbollah have hesitated to use their estimated 150,000 arsenal of rockets, missiles and other projectiles. At one time Israel launched roughly 1,600 strikes across Lebanon, making it deadliest day of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Future air and space-power contestations:
The successful launch of Chamran-1 satellite is an important milestone for the IRGC, Iran’s Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Science, and the knowledge-based companies involved in that project. This boosts the Iranian space establishment to carry further launches as they plan to launch Qaem-105 and Noor-4 SLVs in 2025. Their homegrown satellites like Tolo-3, Zafar-2, Kowsar, etc. are ready for launch in the near future. Still, it’s best not to be misguided that all these recent space developments of Iran have been done exclusively through Iran’s own indigenous efforts as there may be some elements of assistance from China, North Korea or more so from Russia as Iran has provided them with many Shahed drones to attack Ukraine.
The Qaem-100 SLV has an average speed of 3.3 Mach and Iran would like to improvise on that further. The Jihad missile seems more like an anti-ship missile and it can be transferred to Yemeni Houthi’s to further destabilise the red sea. The Hezbollah’s Qadr-1 missile has its origins in Iran but it seems incapable to cause any significant damage to Israel as Israel and its western allies has a robust air-defence mechanism to nullify any air-attack from Iran or its proxies. What’s interesting for future is that Iran’s space program is growing rapidly with confidence and it has to calculated further whether Iran can convert its space program to achieve any ICBM aspirations to destabilize the wider globe further.