The Carolina Panthers have been depending on first-round pick Xavier Legette in crunch time over the past few weeks. And the rookie wideout hasn’t rewarded the offense’s notable attention with consistent highlight plays.
On Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, he dropped a clear lead-taking touchdown pass in the final minute of a 22-16 road loss at Lincoln Financial Field. It could also be argued that he dropped at least one other pass in the tight game in Week 14.
But Pro Football Focus ultimately credited him with just one drop in the game, and the popular evaluation website has marked him down for seven drops on the season. While that might seem like a rather light number for the viewing public, drops are ultimately a subjective stat due to several variables, including ball placement and coverage.
So, Legette’s drop rate percentage through 13 games, according to PFF, is 15.2%. While that number is rather large, it isn’t exactly damning for a rookie wideout, who came to the league with the look of a project player with high upside.
The 6-foot-3, 227-pound receiver came with the reputation of having somewhat dependable hands. But through 13 games, Legette’s play has been more dramatic than dynamic, especially from a catch perspective.
The tall and stout playmaker has come as advertised as a jump-ball red-zone threat with four touchdowns on the campaign, but he’s also turned into a player that tends to lean on theatrics on relatively normal NFL catch opportunities.
He dives, he leaps, he lunges. And really, that approach has seemingly had more impact on his drops than relying on his fingers and palms to corral the ball.
On Monday, Panthers head coach Dave Canales said Legette was dealing with an old college wrist injury (which wasn’t surgically repaired), but that the ailment wasn’t impacting his ability to catch the ball. When Legette simply catches a pass on the run and doesn’t leave his feet, he typically hauls in the ball. When he does a little extra for the catch, that’s when things go awry.
But he’s a rookie. He’s learning how to play in the NFL and is getting guidance on the nuances of the position. And frankly, it’s typical for big-bodied wideouts to struggle initially with drops.
Amari Cooper, the fourth overall pick in 2015, had a drop rate of 20% as a rookie, per PFF. Courtland Sutton, the 40th overall pick in 2018, had a drop rate of 17.6% as a rookie and then a drop rate of 25% in third season in 2020. Both players went to Pro Bowls after their respective NFL rookie seasons, which were both clearly plagued by butter fingers.
Jerry Jeudy, who Panthers fans were clamoring for at last year’s trade deadline, had a drop rate of 18.8% as a rookie in 2020 after he went 15th overall in that year’s draft. He’s since become a pretty good No. 2 wideout and is about to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career this season after being traded to Cleveland.
Rashod Bateman, now a dependable starting wideout for the Baltimore Ravens, had a drop percent rate of 25% during his second season in 2022. He’s now the No. 2 receiver for Lamar Jackson and has 574 yards and five touchdowns through 13 games this year.
Legette has had his lumps, and he will probably continue to struggle with drops throughout his rookie campaign. But that doesn’t mean he’s a bust or a bad pick or a bad player.
Sure, Jonathan Mingo — last year’s second-round pick — quickly wore out his welcome and got shipped to Dallas (it’s revenge week, by the way), but Legette doesn’t have the same issues. The rookie is getting open regularly, he’s making effective plays in the red zone, and he’s been relatively reliable as a possession weapon, even as he transitions to the much more detailed “X” position. Mingo didn’t do any of those things, so it’s unfair to compare Legette to him.
While Legette probably won’t become Cooper, a Sutton-like career return for the rookie would be a promising projection for the Panthers, who traded up one pick to select the South Carolina alum in the first round in April. But only time will tell, and Legette really needs to refine his technique in the offseason.
Legette still runs like he has pebbles in his cleats and fire in his heart. He also doesn’t need to sell out for every toss that could clearly just be a typical NFL catch.
To quote Canadian pop star Avril Lavigne: Xavier, “why do you have to go and make things so complicated?”
Let’s check the Panthers mailbag for some fan questions from social media:
Panthers mailbag: A way too early look at the draft
Aries asks: With Bryce Young showing confidence and promise in Dave Canales’ system, do you feel the Panthers will still eye a defensive position with their first round pick or another offensive weapon?
Well, Aries, it’s still early December and there are four more games left, plus there’s free agency to account for before the selection process in April. But given the way the Panthers are going right now, it would actually seem more plausible to spend money on a wide receiver than to draft another one.
Young, whether he’s the long-term answer or not, has one more year before the Panthers need to decide whether or not to pick up his fifth-year option. Giving him proven weapons would help in that evaluation process, because as we’ve seen with Legette and Mingo, the learning curve can be steep for rookie wideouts.
While some first-year receivers immediately hit the ground running, the Panthers’ picks at the position have shown the process is somewhat reliant on a lot of variables, beyond the talent of a wide receiver prospect.
While fans are clamoring for Tee Higgins, this beat writer expects him to have a large market that prices him out of the Panthers’ range. And with that said, Higgins is a very good player, but it remains to be seen if he can be a consistent No. 1 target. Bad teams tend to force the issue in free agency and overpay for good-not-great players, and the Panthers probably should avoid a heavy bidding war for the former Clemson Tiger.
Perhaps someone like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins could make sense as a two-or-so-year stopgap No. 1 for a team that needs to evaluate Young for the future immediately. Elijah Moore or Darius Slayton could potentially be upside plays for the platoon as well. Chris Godwin, coming off a major injury, could be the familiarity target for Canales.
Essentially, the Panthers will have their free-agent options at wide receiver. Getting a top-tier front-seven player will prove to be a more difficult task because of the price of the free-agent market.
The expectation is that the Panthers will still focus on defense in free agency, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them target someone like Michigan’s Mason Graham or Penn State’s Abdul Carter in the top-10 picks of this year’s draft.
Carolina running back depth chart without Jonathon Brooks
Leonard asks: With Jonathon Brooks’ season being over, do the Panthers start to look elsewhere for a tandem RB to Chuba Hubbard in 2025?
The Panthers will undoubtedly look elsewhere to find another running back behind Hubbard.
Once you’ve paid a player like the Panthers have with Hubbard, it makes sense to focus on Day 3 of the draft to supplement the running back depth chart. Hubbard has proven to be a work horse back, and Canales has typically used him as such. So, with Brooks potentially on the shelf for the majority or entirety of the 2025 season, look for Carolina to use one of its nine draft picks on a running back, though most likely in the later rounds.
Miles Sanders almost definitely won’t be back, especially at his current projected salary ($5.5 million). Raheem Blackshear hasn’t received an offensive touch through 13 games and is set to become a restricted free agent, and Mike Boone has been resting on the practice squad for months. Teams typically refresh their running back rooms annually, and the Panthers, by necessity alone, will likely follow that trend.
So, yeah, expect movement at the position this offseason, most likely through the draft.
Predicting the home stretch
Jordan asks: With our toughest stretch this season behind us and the way we fought, what do you predict the final record to be?
For accountability purposes, I projected the Panthers to go 6-11 before the season. During the bye week, given everything we learned in the first 10 weeks, I said in the (free) Panthers Access newsletter that I didn’t see the team winning less than five games. I still somewhat feel confident in that projection. I could even see the team winning the six games that I projected during the preseason.
Here is the remaining schedule:
Week 15: vs. Dallas (5-8)
Week 16: vs. Arizona (6-7)
Week 17: @ Tampa Bay (7-6)
Week 18: @ Atlanta (6-7)
At worst, I see them splitting their two consecutive home games and their two consecutive road matchups.
Dallas is really bad on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals and Falcons seem to be sputtering of late, with three- and four-game losing streaks, respectively. And the Buccaneers will be a tough out, but they don’t seem particularly daunting either, especially after the Panthers took them to overtime just a couple of weeks ago.
Since the win in Germany, this beat writer has projected a win over Dallas. A win over the Cardinals wouldn’t be particularly surprising either, especially at home. Of the two road matchups, Atlanta seems like a viable success story to close out the season.
But I’ll ultimately play it safe and say 5-12 is a logical finish. A 6-11 run is doable, though.
The Charlotte Observer
Mike Kaye covers the Carolina Panthers for The Charlotte Observer. Kaye previously covered the entire NFL for Pro Football Network, the Philadelphia Eagles for NJ Advance Media and the Jacksonville Jaguars for First Coast News. He is a graduate of the University of North Florida.