Natasha Lindstaedt discusses why pro-EU protests have erupted in Georgia and the government’s relationship with Russia
Hundreds of Georgians have been arrested after protests erupted against the ruling Georgian Dream party’s decision to suspend talks on joining the European Union. The government’s announcement came only hours after the European Parliament adopted a resolution stating that the October parliamentary elections were riddled with irregularities.
Though exit polls revealed that the opposition had a 10% lead, the incumbent Georgian Dream ended up winning with 54% of the votes. Fresh changes to the electoral system (moving to proportional representation) were supposed to benefit the opposition. But Georgian Dream has other ways of ensuring victory. This includes vote buying (cash payments, free food distributions, gift cards), intimidation and harassment of the opposition, and threatening to fire civil servants that could not show proof that they had voted for the ruling party. On top of that, reports surfaced that the Russian government has been involved in a significant disinformation campaign to undermine the opposition, and to advance a pro-Russian agenda.
Without resorting to these tactics of electoral manipulation, it’s unlikely that the Georgian Dream party would have secured its fourth consecutive term in power. As the October parliamentary elections were essentially a referendum on whether Georgia would take steps towards Europe, a win for the Georgian Dream’s pro-Russian agenda was implausible. Polling from 2023 showed that nearly 90% of the Georgian public either partially or fully supported joining the EU, and hopes were high amongst Georgian citizens for this possibility. As Georgia is experiencing a massive brain drain, joining the EU is seen as a path to improving its fledgling economy.
In December of 2023, the EU had finally granted Georgia candidate status, but on the condition that it strive to uphold the rule of law, protect human rights and civil liberties. Rather than move towards achieving these objectives, however, Georgian Dream passed a series of laws that aligned the country more closely with Russia.
In May of 2024, the ruling party rammed through the Russian inspired foreign agent law, which forces all independent media and NGOs that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors to register as a foreign agent and be monitored by the Justice Ministry. Those that fail to do so face huge fines. Based on interviews I conducted in 2022, almost all pro-democracy NGOs in Georgia rely on foreign funding to survive.
This move to restrict NGOs is part of a larger trend to weaken democratic forces. Whether Russia is directing this or merely serving as a model is unknown, but the Kremlin has certainly been a trailblazer in dismantling civil society and undermining NGOs. As Russian President Vladmir Putin sees foreign-funded NGOs as one of the biggest threats to his grip on power, targeting these organisations is a major priority both at home and abroad.
By October, Georgia had banned same sex marriage. Though Georgia faces huge economic problems, the ruling party has used anti-LGBTQ propaganda to distract the public, arguing that the West’s ‘pseudo liberal ideology’ was eroding traditional Georgian culture. Not surprisingly, Russia has an identical law, which it passed in 2013.
In particular the passage of the foreign agent law triggered mass protests. For Georgia, moving in an autocratic direction poses a threat not just to human rights, but also to its future place in the world. Thus, the protests over the foreign agents law earlier in 2024 and in 2023 were driven by larger concerns that Georgia is on a path to be firmly in Russia’s camp, and would have to abandon dreams of ever being a member of the EU.
Most Georgians have no interest in moving closer to Russia. The public does not see Russia as a positive influence and is worried that with Russia already occupying one-fifth of its territory since 2008, another invasion is on the horizon. The streets of Tbilisi are also sprinkled with anti-Russian and anti-Putin graffiti, and polling from 2023 revealed that 79% of Georgians oppose visa free travel for Russians to enter Georgia.
Many Georgians fear that Russia is exercising greater control over Georgia’s leadership, with protesters chanting at police, ‘Russian slaves’. In addition to fears of growing Russian influence, the ongoing protests fly in the face of promises the Georgian government had made to its citizens. Joining the European Union was enshrined into its Constitution in 2017. But Georgia started pivoting towards Russia more seriously since it invaded Ukraine in 2022 by not participating in Western sanctions against Russia and facilitating the relocation of Russian companies into Georgia.
In response to Georgian Dream’s declaration on suspending membership talks, the EU stated that it had ‘serious concerns about the continuous democratic backsliding of the country’ and urged Georgia to ‘respect the right to freedom of assembly and freedom of expression, and refrain from using force against peaceful protesters, politicians and media representatives’. The EU also announced that it would redirect funds that would have gone to the Georgian government to Georgian civil society groups instead. The UK also responded that it aims to advance Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration through ‘support for democratic reforms’.
With Georgia’s EU candidacy on hold, the situation seems hopeless for many of Georgia’s civil society organizations, NGOs and critical media. In my interviews with over a dozen representatives from pro-democracy NGOs in Georgia conducted in 2022, the state of Georgia’s democracy was most robust when Georgian NGOs and civil society received the most funding and support from the West, coupled with clear signals from the EU, the US and the UK that democracy in Georgia was a priority. When these signals have seemed weaker (fluctuating over the last two decades), Georgia Dream has taken advantage of this void, moving closer to Russia, while engaging in small and calculated assaults on democratic actors and institutions.
As can be seen by the sustained protests this week, Georgian civil society is vibrant and active. In fact, the Georgian public has had a history of protesting against autocratisation, and widespread and sustained mobilisation will be critical. Additionally, outgoing President Salome Zurabishvili has united opposition parties which remain committed to democratic values and aligning with the EU. In light of this, stronger international support for these democratic actors is critical to stemming Georgia’s precipitous descent to authoritarianism and becoming a quasi-Russian state.
By Professor Natasha Lindstaedt, University of Essex