For the Pittsburgh Steelers, their long-awaited mid-winter slog through three playoff-quality opponents begins this weekend.
Three games over 11 days. Three opponents that have combined for 31 wins.
The first game is Sunday in Philadelphia against the 11-2 Eagles. Then the Steelers face their arch-rivals from the AFC North on Dec. 21 when they visit the 8-5 Ravens in Baltimore. That’s followed by a Wednesday afternoon affair on Christmas against the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs (12-1).
It’s almost impossible to view this gauntlet in individual bites. But for his own preparation purposes, that’s exactly what head coach Mike Tomlin has to do.
“I’m really just focused on Philadelphia. I don’t care what is on the other side of it,” Tomlin said. “I have a seven-day cycle. So I’m not going to make the simple complex. We’ve got a task this week. We’ve got a job to do.”
I’m sure Tomlin’s players are viewing things the same way. However, from a fan and media perspective, I’m not sure how you look at this mid-December block as anything but:
1. A huge litmus test of who the 2024 Steelers truly are.
2. How this stretch will determine the playoff fate of the team.
To that second point, even for a leader as task-oriented and day-to-day as Tomlin is, you know he is at least somewhat conscious of that reality.
Wins in all three games would put the Steelers in the running with Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Ravens game alone is massive. If the Steelers win it, they assure themselves of an AFC North Division crown regardless of how either team fares in any other remaining games.
Taking a minimum of two of three would probably be necessary to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills for at least the second seed. They are atop the AFC East with a 10-3 mark, and face a stiff test this week in Detroit against the 12-1 Lions. But the Bills end the season with three probable wins against the New York Jets (3-10) and two against the New England Patriots (3-10).
As for the first point about these next three games being a barometer for the Steelers’ postseason, that may not be as much on Tomlin’s radar. It’s too intangible for his taste.
But that doesn’t mean it is any less valid.
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If the Steelers are going to make the Super Bowl through the AFC playoff bracket, they are probably going to have to win three games against top-grade competition to do it. And, as in the case of this three-game death march, at least two of those games are probably going to have to be on the road.
Yes, even if they win the division.
Think about it. Even if the Steelers secure the North, they’ll probably be the No. 3 seed behind Kansas City and/or Buffalo. The Bills currently have a tiebreaker over the Steelers and a much easier schedule.
The Chiefs would likely need to lose twice more, including the Christmas game to the Steelers (or three times overall) for the Steelers to catch them atop the conference. Their other remaining games are in Cleveland this week, at home for Houston on Dec. 21, and at Denver in Week 18.
That would mean the Steelers are probably staring at a first-round matchup at home against the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos in the first round. Yes, both teams the Steelers beat early in the season, but also teams that have improved a lot since then.
If they survive that, probable road trips to Buffalo and Kansas City would still remain in the next two rounds to get out of the conference. Of course, they wouldn’t have to win all three of those games in 11 days, but it still will be incredibly difficult.
Should the Steelers somehow manage to sweep their way through this stretch, though, imagine the confidence the team would be carrying into the postseason.
If they get shut out, visions of the 2020 derailment from 11-0 to 12-4 may be dancing through our heads.
“There are so many variables that could affect the preparation process on the other side of this game — the attrition component and so forth — that (it) is fruitless and almost a waste of time to get beyond the template,” Tomlin said. “Certainly, I have a calendar and a template. But that does not have my time or my attention. The Philadelphia Eagles do.”
Understood. As they should. As will the Ravens next week, and the Chiefs before Christmas.
We get it. But for folks that root for and cover the team, these three holiday gifts of marquee matchups have been presented as a bundle by the powers that be in the NFL scheduling office.
Don’t blame us for tearing through the wrapping paper all at once.
With Pickens doubtful for this week (at minimum), what’s your prediction for the Philly/Baltimore/KC stretch over 10 days
— Tim Benz (@TimBenzPGH) December 10, 2024
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via X. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.